Analysts Dead On In Their Predictions For Gold and Crude in 2007

In mid-December we highlighted what the consensus commodity price forecasts for 2007 were from commodities analysts. Gold and oil were two of only three commodities that analysts expected to rise in 2007 from their December prices. In the charts below, we highlight how correct those forecasts have been and where the forecasts currently stand.

In each chart, the line on the left represents the actual price while the line on the right represents the 2007 year-end average price forecast. The light blue dots represent where the price was in mid-December and the dark blue dots represent where the price is currently.

As shown in the gold chart, the price has gone up quite a bit this year already, which is what analysts were expecting. Interestingly, however, price forecasts have come down some even though the price has risen. Analysts were expecting oil to rise to about $64 per barrel by the end of '07 in mid-December, but as the commodity has fallen to current levels, the forecasts have followed suit, and now are just over $60.

Comments

[Greg Pinelli:]

All linear based..low level stuff..no analysis..no nothing..nice pictures.

2007 Feb 16 08:57 PM

[Malkiel:]

Sometimes a simple fact is worth a lot--having a confirmation that analyst predictions are on track at this moment is a valuable thing, and the diagrams are refreshingly direct...

2007 Feb 17 02:36 AM

[123akennedy:]

Is anyone making comments about Sino Gold Ltd, the Australian company with the largest gold mine in Asia, operating in China, with the blessing of the government. I can't find anything mentioned about this operation even though they have a hugh find.

2007 Feb 19 04:08 PM

[Jose Martin1:]

Greg, I've done a brief analysis of the expected price of gold and factors affecting its trend. There are a couple of interesting links as well. Check it out at www.jpmartin.com/inves...

2007 Feb 26 02:15 AM