Here's the economic calendar for the week commencing the 30th of May 2011. This week we say goodbye to May, as such there's the May PMI numbers due out, with China, the US, and most other major economies reporting. There's also more GDP data from Canada, Switzerland, and Australia. In the US there's nonfarm payrolls, S&P/Case-Shiller house price index, and consumer confidence. In terms of monetary policy, the central banks of Russia, Canada, and Thailand are due to announce rate decisions.
(More commentary follows the table)
| Date | GMT | Country/ Currency | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| MON | 05:00 | JPY | Housing Starts (YoY) | -3.90% | -2.40% |
| MON | 12:30 | CAD | Gross Domestic Product (MoM) | 0.20% | -0.20% |
| MON | 12:30 | CAD | Gross Domestic Product (YoY) | 2.90% | |
| MON | 12:30 | CAD | Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized | 4.00% | 3.30% |
| MON | 23:30 | JPY | Jobless Rate | 4.70% | 4.60% |
| MON | 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production (YoY) | -12.40% | -13.10% |
| TUE | 04:00 | EUR | German Retail Sales (YoY) | 1.50% | -3.50% |
| TUE | 05:45 | CHF | Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) | 0.70% | 0.90% |
| TUE | 05:45 | CHF | Gross Domestic Product (YoY) | 3.00% | 3.10% |
| TUE | 06:00 | CHF | UBS Consumption Indicator | 1.66 | |
| TUE | 06:45 | EUR | French Consumer Spending (YoY) | 4.40% | 2.60% |
| TUE | 06:45 | EUR | French Producer Prices (YoY) | 6.40% | 6.60% |
| TUE | 07:55 | EUR | German Unemployment Rate s.a. | 7.00% | 7.10% |
| TUE | 07:55 | EUR | German Unemployment Change | -30K | -37K |
| TUE | 08:00 | EUR | Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. | 8.30% | 8.30% |
| TUE | 09:00 | EUR | Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (YoY) | 3.00% | 2.90% |
| TUE | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) | 2.80% | 2.80% |
| TUE | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Unemployment Rate | 9.90% | 9.90% |
| TUE | 10:00 | EUR | Italian Producer Price Index (YoY) | 5.50% | 6.10% |
| TUE | 13:00 | CAD | Bank of Canada Rate Decision | 1.00% | 1.00% |
| TUE | 13:00 | USD | S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City s.a. (MoM%) | -0.20% | -0.18% |
| TUE | 13:00 | USD | S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) | -3.40% | -3.30% |
| TUE | 13:00 | USD | S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY) | -4.10% | |
| TUE | 14:00 | USD | Consumer Confidence | 665.00 | 65.40 |
| TUE | 01:00 | CNY | PMI Manufacturing | 51.60 | 52.90 |
| TUE | 01:30 | AUD | Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) | -0.30% | 0.70% |
| TUE | 01:30 | AUD | Gross Domestic Product (YoY) | 1.80% | 2.70% |
| TUE | 02:30 | CNY | HSBC Manufacturing PMI | 51.80 | |
| WED | 05:30 | EUR | French ILO Unemployment Rate | 9.40% | 9.60% |
| WED | 07:45 | EUR | Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing | 53.00 | 55.50 |
| WED | 07:50 | EUR | French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing | 55.00 | 55.00 |
| WED | 07:55 | EUR | German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing | 58.20 | 58.20 |
| WED | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing | 54.80 | 54.80 |
| WED | 08:30 | GBP | Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing | 54.10 | 54.60 |
| WED | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing | 57.50 | 60.40 |
| WED | 01:30 | AUD | Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) | 0.40% | -0.50% |
| THU | 01:00 | CNY | China Non-manufacturing PMI | 62.50 | |
| THU | 02:30 | CNY | China HSBC Services PMI | 51.60 | |
| FRI | 07:45 | EUR | Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services | 51.60 | 52.20 |
| FRI | 07:50 | EUR | French Purchasing Manager Index Services | 62.80 | 62.80 |
| FRI | 07:55 | EUR | German Purchasing Manager Index Services | 54.90 | 54.90 |
| FRI | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Purchasing Manager Index Composite | 55.40 | 55.40 |
| FRI | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Purchasing Manager Index Services | 55.40 | 55.40 |
| FRI | 08:30 | GBP | Purchasing Manager Index Services | 54.20 | 54.30 |
| FRI | 12:30 | USD | Change in Non-farm Payrolls | 190K | 244K |
| FRI | 12:30 | USD | Unemployment Rate | 8.90% | 9.00% |
| FRI | 14:00 | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite | 54.00 | 52.80 |
As noted the changing of the month marks the release of another round of PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) data. It will be particularly interesting to get the final readings of manufacturing PMI data from China given that the early reading slipped a bit; likewise China's non-manufacturing PMI will also be a timely gauge on the slowdown in China. Meanwhile the US is also expected to show a slip on its manufacturing PMI, while its non-man PMI is tipped to rise a bit. All the key euro economies will be announcing PMI results also, with the eurozone composite expected to be about flat compared to April.
On GDP, Canada is up first with some monthly GDP data, which is expected to be positive month on month, and up to around 4% on an annualized basis. Next is Switzerland, which is expected to see a decent QoQ and YoY growth figure, albeit slightly slower than Q4 2011. Of course the other big one will be Australia, which is expected to report negative QoQ growth of -0.3%, which will pull the annual growth rate down to about 1.8%.
On the monetary policy front there's a couple decisions scheduled for the week ahead. The Central Bank of Russia (expected to hold at 8.25%) goes on the 30th, the Bank of Canada (expected to hold at 1.00%) goes on the 31st, and the Bank of Thailand (expected to raise its interest rate 25bps to 3.00%) goes on the 1st of June.
Elsewhere, the US has the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index data out, which is expected to show continued monthly and annual declines as the US housing market continues to stagnate. US nonfarm payrolls are expected to show about 200k jobs added, with next to no change in the unemployment rate. On unemployment, Japan also puts out job numbers this week, with its jobless rate expected to rise slightly. Likewise the eurozone is expected to show flat unemployment at about 10%.
So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...
Sources
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
