The latest ADP employment report showed private payrolls added just 38,000 jobs in May. That contrasts with an average of slightly over 200,000 per month for the previous 5 months (click to enlarge images):
This is not particularly surprising given the rise in initial jobless claims in the last 6 weeks pushing the 4 week moving average close to 440,000, a level usually associated with tepid employment growth at best.
On a month to month basis the ADP report and the non-farm payroll report can sometimes differ substantially, however there is generally a high level of correlation between the two reports. A weaker than consensus forecast for NFP’s on Friday could well be in the cards.