New York Fed Model: 1-in-167 Chance of 2012 Double-Dip

by: Mark J. Perry

(Click chart to expand)

The New York Federal Reserve recently updated its "Probability of U.S. Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread" (pdf) with treasury yield data through May 2011, and the Fed's recession probability forecast through May 2012. The NY Fed's Treasury model uses the spread between the yields on 10-year Treasury notes (3.17% in December) and 3-month Treasury bills (0.04%) to calculate the probability of a U.S. recession up to twelve months ahead (see details here).

The Fed's model (data here) shows that the recession probability peaked during the October 2007 to April 2008 period at around 37-42% (see chart above), and has been declining since then in almost every month. According to the NY Fed, the odds of a double-dip recession in May 2012, are 0.60%, or about 1 in 167.