Shorts See Slight Advantage With Texas Instruments' Mid-Quarter Update

Jun. 8.11 | About: Texas Instruments (TXN)

Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) is due with its mid-quarter update for Q2 in tonight's after-hours session. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect the company to post Q2 earnings of $0.57 per share on revenue of $3.55 billion. The company previously guided for Q2 revenue in a range of $3.41 to $3.69 bln and EPS of $0.52 to $0.60 per share.

In the near-term, TXN is seeing mixed trade between the sessions following its mid-quarter updates, widening twice and reversing direction twice over the last four quarters. The stock's long-term performance over 2011 through 2004 is fixed in a reversal pattern, with TXN cutting back or reversing its evening performance in next-day regular session trade in 16 of its last 29 quarterly updates, and widening its movement in 13 events.

Looking deeper into the performance data, TXN has seen a guidance-driven after-hours gain in 11 of the 29 mid-quarter updates we've tracked. In seven of those events, or 64% of the time, the evening gain was either cut back or reversed direction in next-day regular session trade. TXN recorded a guidance-driven after-hours decline in 18 of the 29 events we've tracked, and the stock is evenly mixed in its next-day regular session performance, narrowing its declines nine times and adding to its declines nine times as well.

On March 8, 2011, TXN dropped 1% in evening trading on the back of narrowing its Q1 view, with revenue targets in line to lower than Street estimates. The stock headed lower the following day, closing the March 9 regular session off 3.1%.

On Dec. 7, 2010, TXN edged down 0.7% in after-hours trading after narrowing its Q4 guidance within its previous range. The stock reversed direction the following day, closing the Dec. 8 regular session up 1%.

On Sept. 9, 2010, TXN declined 1.8% in after-hours action after narrowing its Q3 outlook but holding its view within its previous guidance range and in line with Street estimates. The stock cut its downside the following day, closing the Sept. 10 regular session down 0.6%.

On June 8, 2010, TXN slipped 0.3% in after-hours trading after the company set its Q2 view to the higher end of its guidance range. The stock added slightly to its downside, closing the June 9 regular session down 0.6%.

On March 8, 2010, TXN declined 0.7% in after-hours trading after guiding to the top end of its previous Q1 outlook. The stock added to its downside the following day, closing the March 9 regular session down 2%.

On Dec. 8, 2009, TXN declined 2.2% in after-hours trading after setting its Q4 view in the upper end of its previous guidance. The stock cut its downside the following day, ending down 1.3% in the Dec. 9 regular session.

On Sept. 9, 2009, TXN edged up 0.8% in evening action after boosting its Q3 guidance ahead of the then current Street estimates. The stock lost its upside the following day, closing the Sept. 10 regular session down 0.5%.

On June 8, 2009, TXN advanced 4.6% in after-hours trading after setting its Q2 outlook in a range mostly above its prior guidance and the then-current Street view. The stock added to its upside in the following day's regular session, ending with a 6.3% gain.

On March 9, 2009, TXN advanced 1% in after-hours trading after the company narrowed its Q1 guidance but kept its numbers in line with expectations. The stock charged higher the following day, gaining 6.6% in the March 10 regular session.

On Dec. 8, 2008, TXN declined 3.8% in after-hours trading after cutting its Q4 outlook below the Street view. The stock recorded a sharp reversal the following day, rising 5% in the Dec. 9 regular session.

On Sept. 9, 2008, TXN gained 5.5% in after-hours trading after narrowing its guidance but holding it within Street estimates. The stock lost the bulk of its gain the following day, advancing a mere 0.6% by the Sept. 10 closing bell.

On June 9, 2008, TXN declined 0.5% in after-hours trading after narrowing its guidance range, but holding its outlook within Street expectations. The stock headed lower the next day, closing the June 10 regular session down 2.9%.

On March 10, 2008, TXN declined 3.8% in after-hours trading after the company reduced its guidance below both its prior expectations and the Street view. It cut that downside slightly the next day, ending the March 11 regular session down 3%.

On Dec. 10, 2007, TXN advanced 4.5% in after-hours trading after the company tightened its outlook to the upper end of its previous guidance. It lost the bulk of this upside the following day, ending the Dec. 11 regular session up a mere 0.8%.

On Oct. 22, 2007, TXN declined 4% in the after-hours after narrowing its Q3 sales guidance and slightly revising its earnings view. The stock added to its downside in the Oct. 23 regular session, losing 8.3% by the closing bell.

On June 11, 2007, TXN declined 2.2% in after-hours trading after the company narrowed its Q2 guidance in its mid-quarter update. However, the outlook was still in line with Street estimates. TXN held its decline the next day, closing the regular session with a slightly narrower 2.1% loss.

On March 12, 2007, TXN slid 2.1% in after-hours trading after it narrowed its Q1 outlook but still maintained the numbers in line with Street estimates. The stock saw a deeper decline the next day, losing 2.6% in the March 13 regular session.

On Dec. 11, 2006, TXN slipped 0.4% in after-hours trading after the company narrowed its Q4 guidance to the low end of its prior view. The stock managed a decent turn into the green in the next day's regular session, rising 1.6% by the Dec. 12 closing bell.

On Sept. 11, 2006, TXN declined 0.8% in after-hours trading after the company narrowed its Q3 outlook in its mid-quarter update. The stock turned to the plus-side the following day, rising 2.2% by the Sept. 12 closing bell.

On June 8, 2006, TXN advanced 2.8% in after-hours trading after the company raised its Q2 estimates above its prior guidance and the Street view. It saw those gains evaporate the next day as TXN ended the June 9 regular session down 3.4%.

On March 6, 2006, TXN declined 2.9% in evening trading after the company narrowed its Q1 outlook but maintained it within expectations. It recorded a modest addition to the downside on March 7, losing 3.3% by the day's regular session close.

On Dec. 7, 2005, TXN advanced 1.7% in after-hours trading after the company boosted its Q4 revenue guidance and raised its EPS view as well. The gains failed to hold in the following Dec. 8 regular session, with TXN losing 2.7% by the closing bell.

On Sept. 8, 2005, TXN raised its Q3 revenue and earnings guidance ranges, and the stock advanced 1.5% in after-hours trade. It failed to hold this modest gain through the Sept. 9 regular session, and TXN closed the day down a slim 0.03%.

On the night of June 7, 2005, TXN raised its Q2 revenue and EPS guidance ranges and the stock gained 2% in after-hours trade. It added slightly to that gain on June 8, rising 2.2% between the bells.

Back on March 7, 2005 TXN declined 2.8% in after-hours trading after the company narrowed its Q1 revenue outlook and moved its EPS view to the low end of its prior guidance. The stock lost a deeper 3.7% between the regular session bells on March 8.

On Dec. 7, 2004 TXN lost 2.2% in after-hours trading after the company narrowed its sales guidance. The stock declined 3.8% in the following day's regular session.

On Sept. 8, 2004 TXN edged up 1.5% in night trading on a reduced revenue range. Despite the modest evening lift, TXN surged in the Sept. 9 regular session, closing the day up a bullish 10.3%.

On June. 7, 2004 TXN slipped 1.6% in evening action after the company set in-line guidance. The stock cut its downside the next day, slipping 0.7% by the June 8 close.

Finally, on March 8, 2004 TXN clawed its way to a 0.6% rise in after-hours trading after the company revised its revenue outlook. It saw those gains evaporate on March 9, and the stock ended bell-to-bell play down 1.1%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.