TIPS Breakeven Rate Falls to Six-Month Low

by: Mark J. Perry
As I've reported before, the "breakeven rate" - the difference between 10-year nominal Treasury yields and 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) yields - is one market-based measure of expected future inflation.

As of today, the breakeven rate was 2.17%, down by almost 50 basis points from the recent peak of 2.65% on April 11, and the lowest level since early December last year (see chart above). Contrary to the worries of the many "inflationistas," this downward trend in the TIPS breakeven rate suggests that inflationary expectations in the bond market continue to moderate.