Investing legend Peter Lynch always searched for 10-baggers. Here at Investment Underground, we're not going to try and guess which stocks will reach that status. Instead we're going to speculate on the names of three stocks that could be double or triple-baggers. As always, use the list below as a starting point for your own research:
Sirius XM Radio's (SIRI): SIRI's fiscal situation, while concerning on the surface, is about to improve markedly. Capex is headed down significantly starting in 2012; and 2011 free cash flow figures along should be in the range of 300 million. Currently, SIRI still has 600 million in cash on its books. SIRI's ability to raise operating cash flow has led to improvement in the company's credit rating. From a valuation standpoint, SIRI's assets alone may be worth the current share price. SIRI owns valuable spectrum and satellites. We think that steady accumulation of SIRI shares by the larger investment operations and their clients will continue as it has over the last year.
Our anecdotal assessment of retail broker choices for "speculative" plays shows that SIRI remains a favorite, especially since Citigroup (C) shares underwent a reverse-split. Speculation in SIRI shares extends to the short side as well. Shareholders can view the 7% short float as a basket of inevitable buyers.
Cameco Corp (CCJ): Cameco produces almost 16% of the world's uranium with high grade reserves and low-cost operations. The CEO states that Japan might only impact the company's sales by 3-5%. CCJ owns many of the world's highest-grade uranium deposits. The McArthur River mine in Saskatchewan has ore grade concentrations 100 times higher than the industry average. At the time of writing, shares trade at $25.20 apiece on a P/E 21. So much uncertainty surrounds this industry right now. In all reality, the billions of dollars put into this energy source will not be thrown away and the 440 reactors operating worldwide (with many more coming online) will need uranium. The nuclear fallout in Japan will remain contained, and other countries around the world will move ahead as planned.
Global interest in nuclear energy will then boost back up as a clean and reliable source of power and the stock will hold a position for growth and continued profitability. As one of the best in breed names in the uranium sector, it seems reasonable thing thing could triple over the long term as demand picks up.
GMX Resources (GMXR): GMX is a smaller operator with around 42,000 net acres in the Haynesville shale in the eastern Texas counties of Harrison, Marion and Panola. Earlier this year, GMXR shifted from vertical drilling in the Cotton Valley Sands to horizontal drilling in the Haynesville Shale. We expect big things out of GMX by year's end once the oil starts flowing.
As a result, the company had to remove substantial proven undeveloped reserves from its books on the Cotton Valley due to its switch to the Haynesville Shale below it, cratering the share price. We think a buyout would come in around $700 million on the low end or $12 per share given GMX's acreage and infrastructure at current gas prices. Devon (DVN), legacy XTO, Apache (APA) and EOG Resources (EOG) all have acreage in East Texas and are looking for opportunistic acquisitions. GMXR acreage, with no impending lease expirations and the ability to place well heads near pipelines due to its Cotton Valley experience, is a potential target.
The company announced in January that it would buy 67,724 net acres of horizontal oil resources within the core development areas of the Bakken/Sanish-Three Forks Formation in the Williston Basin (Bakken) and the Niobrara Formation in the Denver Julesburg (DJ) Basin. The 67,724 net acres include 26,087 net acres in the Williston Basin, North Dakota and Montana targeting the Bakken/Sanish-Three Forks Formation and approximately 41,637 acres in the DJ Basin in Wyoming targeting the Niobrara Formation. In addition, this provides 342 additional horizontal drilling locations.
Exar Corporation (EXAR): Exar operates in an interesting niche. Rather than actually manufacture semiconductors, the company simply designs them. On a discounted cash flow basis, we estimate shares are worth upwards of $8.50 apiece, giving investors a good opportunity to buy at the price at the time of writing, $6.06. However, the company does trade on a forward P/E of 76.6 and has a spotty history of generating free cash flow. Something to note is that the company does have a significant amount cash on hand (almost $5.00 per share).
Soros owns shares as does Renaissance Technologies (5.34% stake). Adding in Soros’ stake, these two funds own upwards to 20% of the company. We think its likely that these smart money investors are building up a large position to influence management to sell the company. At the time of writing, investors have limited downside Exar and plenty of upside, in our opinion.
Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO): Already boasting low production costs and healthy growth, this mid-tier gold miner can brag even more now that it is the only major Western gold miner operating in China, the largest gold-producing country in the world. Eldorado Gold, which trades at $14.30 a share, gained entry into China with the construction of the Tanjianshan mine after purchasing Sino Gold for $1.9 billion. Now the proud owner of three Chinese gold mines, Eldorado is already on track to add a fourth.
The company recently resumed construction on the Eastern Dragon project and plans to start gold production there in late 2012. Along with the company’s flagship mine in Turkey, Eldorado should see a significant boost in production over the next several years. Should gold prices continue their upward trajectory, this name could be a double or triple bagger, and offers more upside than larger competitors like Goldcorp (GG).
Molycorp Inc. (MCP) is an American mining corporation headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado. It is currently the largest U.S. based rare earths miner. It was created in July 2010 when its parent company Molycorp Minerals sold 28,125,000 shares in an initial public offering for $394 million. It owns the Mountain Pass rare earth mine in California, a currently inactive mine which it proposes to reopen in 2011. The mine once supplied the majority of the world’s rare earth elements (REEs). The mine has attracted increased attention in recent years as rare earth elements have become increasingly in short supply. China, now the world’s leading supplier of REEs, has restricted production and exports since 2006. In December 2010, Japanese firms Sumitomo (SMMLY.PK) and Mitsubishi (MIMTF.PK) signed agreements to be supplied with rare earths by Molycorp.
Research earnings estimates for 2011 and 2012 on Molycorp, the largest U.S.-based rare earths miner, following the company’s announcement on Monday that it will acquire 90% of Estonia-based AS Silmet for $89 million, a deal that will allow Molycorp to double its annual output of rare earths oxides to 6,000 tons from 3,000 tons. After Monday’s big move higher, shares of Molycorp are lower by 2% and the Rare Earth Stocks Index is down 1.6%. Equity research firm Dahlman has raised its 2011 earnings estimate on Molycorp to $2.15 a share from $1.20 while bumping its 2012 EPS estimate to $6.20 from $5. Both estimates are well above consensus.
First American (FAF): First American is the second-largest title insurance operation in the U.S. and has some exposure to the rest of North America and many emerging markets abroad. This insurer retains an 11% stake in CoreLogic (CLGX), the business information entity spun out from First American last year. We think shares could trade around $30 apiece by early next year.
FAF has done a great job scaling back its cost structure in the wake of the recent housing bust. As transactions return to a more normal level, FAF will benefit tremendously and most of the benefit will translate into strong bottom line numbers. FAF is an Investment Underground "Dividend Growth King" candidate.
Disclosure: I am long GMXR. Long GMXR, short GMXR puts