By Bryan McCormick
As Apple (AAPL) continues to drift lower since its February peak, many are pointing to today's re-breaking of the stock's 200-day moving average as a cause for technical concern.
Long-term moving averages are important indicators of momentum. A break of long-term uptrend support is a strong indication of the potential for a possible reversal of momentum from up to down for an extended period of time.
There is, however, another moving average in a different time frame that may carry even greater significance. On the weekly chart below, I have shown the 50-week moving average in green. This is a slightly more important moving average, as it has been a relatively close proxy for the long-term uptrend, which is now in its second year.
AAPL is approaching this area, which was last at $313.44. If it falls below this moving average, it would break the uptrend that began in March 2009.
As that level has been approached only once or twice in the last two years, how the stock may behave at that point would tell us a lot about trader sentiment. A breakdown would be bearish, but there is an alternate scenario to be aware of as well.
If a test does take place and brings out buyers, a bounce could well ensue. For the stock to get back on a bullish footing, it would need to break above the top of downtrend resistance, which I have drawn in with the sloping orange line.
Today it would take a move about $350 to put the stock back on its bullish path. Note that the line is sloping downward and that the shares have several weeks, even into earning season, to make a successful breach of resistance.
At that time a move back above $340 would be equally bullish. The proviso here is that the shares need to make that turn in roughly six weeks to avoid further deterioration to bearish from long-term bullish.
AAPL is down 1.12 percent to $321.52 in afternoon trading.