SIGA Technologies (SIGA): Fresh off a week where Siga Technologies received yet another set back in the final awarding of a BARDA contract to supply a smallpox antiviral to the nation's biodefense stockpiles, SIGA will be one to keep a close eye on during the coming days.
Generally, it's Siga's antiviral competitor, Chimerix, Inc., that provides the drama and protests in this long-played-out melodrama, but this time the U.S. Congress stepped in. Rep. Darrell Issa, a Republican from California, is looking to see if the White House had any involvement in landing this contract for Siga, specifically demanding information relating to Ron Perelman, his close ties to the company, and whether his role was a factor in Siga being awarded a contract that could ultimately be worth more than two billion dollars.
This story screams, in my opinion, of partisan politics and shrewd posturing in Washington. Unfortunately, these antics have little to do with the fact that Siga is the only candidate for the contract that is ready to go and deliver its antiviral to the stockpile immediately.
Keep an eye out for any potential bargain in the SIGA share price, as I think the company will ultimately receive the award, and be on the look-out for follow-up news to last week's set back.
Disclosure: No position.
(CPST): Shares of Capstone Turbine were hammered last week after the company's earnings announcement of another quarter of record revenue and a growing backlog of orders hit the wires. The question that many investors will be asking is, "If the news was encouraging, then why the drop?"
It's my opinion that the decline in price had more to do with the increasing short position of the CPST float over the course of 2011 than it did with the earnings announcement. The shorts used an opportune time to drive the price down and create enough fear and panic to incite some selling by those who may have been looking to hold for the longer term.
The fact is, Capstone is a company on its way up, so the drop in price is a solid dive into what I like to call 'buy territory'.
Some news/opinion outlets that have been negative on the company have started going positive over the past couple of weeks, as well, which bodes well for those with the opinion that last week's drop was overdone and related to the large short position.
Keep an on CPST, the amount of orders comingin continues to set the company up for solid growth in the future.
Disclosure: Long CPST.
(CELH): Celsius Holdings has inched its way back onto the radar screens of investors with a positive first quarter that might be a sign that a turnaround could be in store. It's still way premature to expect a turnaround like the one that saw the old CSUH stock run from two pennies to sixty cents a couple of years back, but one year ago Celsius pulled in sales numbers that were equal to the current market cap of the company.
Volume has been bone dry with CELH trading, so any spurt of new investor interest backed by a little bit of news could ignite a modest run in share price.
The company has trimmed costs and transitioned into a more focused path forward that is opposite of the bird-shot marketing and distribution campaigns of 2010 which, quite honestly, didn't work.
Growth in the existing "niche" outlets could be enough to resurrect this company's plans for the future, for those willing to play the risk.
Worth at least a watch-list addition.
Disclosure: Long CELH.
(TTNP.OB): Shares of Titan fell as low as $1.30 on Friday when the company announced that it will have to delay the final analysis from the confirmatory Probuphine Phase III trials due to discussions with the FDA about modifications to the Statistical Analysis Plan.
Over two million shares traded into the news before the stock rebounded to close at $1.69, down 15% from the previous day's price.
Just goes to show you that anything can happen in the world of the stock market, even when the end result looks pretty solid, as it does with Titan. This announcement doesn't have me believing that the final outcome will be effected much, and I believe that the market agrees since the stock didn't go sub-dollar as it would, in my opinion, if the market perceived terrible news.
Another item to take not of is that Titan decided to publish two separate PRs about the same subject on Friday, one before market open and one after market close.
What's up with that?
There's nothing in the second PR that would have one believe that it couldn't have been included in the first PR, seems a little fishy that two PRs needed to be sent.
Follow the storyline. Could be that a nice buying opp might open up again, but Friday's action is a good reminder of the inherent risk of the sector. If Titan loses Probuphine (which I don't think will be the case), then there's nothing left to support it. The Fanapt royalties would become enough to support annual vacations to Los Cabos at that point.
Disclosure: Long TTNP.
(SIRI): It's almost comical to see Sirius XM Radio back to trading for sub-$2 prices just when all the hypesters and analysts seemed to be jumping on the bandwagon - supposedly looking to send shares higher. Like Capstone, SiriusXM was holding onto a heavy short position for months, so it's likely that the sharp decrease in share price - right at the same time the general market was slipping - has more to do with shorts than company developments or fundamentals.
Take note of the fact that all the analysts that jumped on at the top, were nowhere to be seen when the sub-$1 bargain prices of SIRI stock were available. Think they were loading up in preparation for telling you to buy at the top, when their money was already made?
Disclosure: No position.
(CLDX): With the downward pressure and uncertainty of the broad market, it didn't take long for Celldex to give back it recent gains following a stock offering that was conducted for well below the market price.
(MHAN): Manhattan has already realized two fairly significant runs this year, and the current prices could be a nice spot to gear up for another one, should it materialize.
Volume increased towards the end of last week, and every once in a while the company trickles out some pipeline news. Not one to consider a legitimate long term hold, in my opinion, but there's been ample opportunity to trade it over the past couple of years.
(GERN): A one-time high-flyer with shares sitting at nine bucks just a couple of years ago, Geron is setting new 52-week lows these days. The market cap is still sitting at a hefty half-billion dollars on the potential of its pipeline of stem cell-based treatments, which is more reasonable, in my opinion, than the near-billion dollar market cap GERN was carrying a couple of years ago with nothing past Phase II.
I expect that once these treatments approach and surpass the Phase III stage, they'll be looked at as a catalyst for future medicine, such as the cancer immunotherapies were once Provenge was approved.
(APRI): Still trading with volatility, Apricus Biosciences shares broke through the five dollar mark again last week as the CEO took sides with Pfizer regarding the extension of patents for Viagra. Extended patent life for viagra, according to Apricus, would reduce market competition for Vitaros, a topical erectile dysfunction treatment already approved in Canada.