With the markets down a manageable, but disappointing, 7% from the highs set seven weeks ago, investors are at a turning point. Either the markets hold their 200 day moving averages, Greece clears up, and market participants forget that QE2 is almost over, or the market heads below the 200 day on the S&P, investors start to panic, and stocks head to new year to date lows in short order. Here are 17 stocks that I will be looking to short and would recommend selling if you are invested in these names with money that you cannot afford to lose.
|Stock||P/E Ratio||Price/Book||Q. R. Grow.||Price/FCF||Intrinsic val.|
|Simon Property Group (SPG)||43X||7X||10%||22X||$65|
|Wynn Resports (WYNN)||52.4X||6.6X||38%||55X||$100|
|iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)||30X||3X||10%||NA||$50|
|PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)||23X||3.72||NA||NA||$35|
|SPDR S&P MidCap (MDY)||18X||2.15||1.2%||14X||$100|
|iShares Russell 1000 (IWF)||15.3X||3.35X||4.28%||16X||$35|
|Red Hat (RHT)||74.4X||6.2X||23%||66.7X||$20|
|Peet's Coffee (PEET)||36.5X||4X||9%||34.4X||$25|
|Under Armour (UA)||47.3X||6.70X||36%||50X||$40|
One thing is certain, once support is broken at $1258 or so the markets have very little to hang on to besides forward earnings projections, a measly dividend yield, and the fact that bond yields aren't paying anything. Well, in my view, all yields are not created equal. One reason that yields are low may be the fact that the U.S. faces severe demographic issues with the working age population declining over the next 20 years due to lower birth rates and the baby boomer generations heading into retirement. In other words, yields are low because expectations for economic growth are quite low as well. Japan faced the same headwinds and after it stopped QE its stock markets collapsed. If you are relying on dividends to fund your retirement, you should consider looking at foreign bond funds from countries such as Australia, Switzerland, Norway, Canada, etc... Reaching for yield with your savings by investing in stocks could prove reckless.
*Note: price to free cash flow uses "Owner Earnings" which adds net income to depreciation and subtracts capital expenditures. Intrinsic value estimates are made using my best estimates of what the businesses are worth and are merely estimates. Short selling is highly risky and involves the potential for significant capital loss.