The VIX, commonly known as the “fear index,” is hovering around 10, a low point, suggesting a lot of carefree folks out there these days. This level is often a turning point, a calm before the storm, so to speak. The Treasury yield curve inverted months ago, suggesting a recession was on the way. It hasn’t happened. The Dow industrials, transports and utilities all closed at new highs on the same day last week — something that became a routine occurrence in just two years, 1929 and 1986, both preludes to big market falloffs. The current rally is now the third longest since 1900 without a 10% correction. The Dow industrials have set 30 new closing highs in the last few months.
Aside from record high margin debt, which in and of itself should give pause for concern, the Wall Street Journal's "MarketBeat" blog lists a few other reasons why now might not be the ideal time to be looking for more of the same in the seemingly unstoppable U.S. equity market.