Jobs, Oil, Same-Store Sales on Slate

Includes: DIA, QQQ, SPY
by: optionMONSTER

Today's economic calendar is full and contains some key data, including the ADP Employment report, which was rescheduled because of the July 4 holiday.

Chain Store Sales, also known as same-store sales, also come out today. There is no fixed timetable for these individual releases, which typically begin very early in the pre-market. The Retail HOLDRS and SPDR S&P Retail exchange-traded funds, as well as their underlying names, may be active on the news.

The Monster Employment Index will be released at 6 a.m. ET. There is no forecast made for this report, but the last reading came in at 143. A number above 145 would be bullish, while one below 140 would be bearish.

At 8:15 a.m. ET, the ADP Employment Report will be released. Most economists expect payrolls to grow by 68,000, which would be a steep rise from the last month's 38,000 reading. Estimates vary widely, from a bearish 25,000 to a bullish 175,000, a level that would likely produced a major upside reaction.

Jobless Claims will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus calls for a drop down to 420,000 initial claims from the previous week's 428,000. The range of estimates is rather narrow, with a drop to a more bullish 400,000 expected at the low end. A move below that psychologically important number would be particularly bullish. At the high end of expectations, the forecast calls for a move up to 430,000 claims, which would be moderately bearish.

The EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released at 11 a.m. ET. This report is typically released on a Wednesday but was pushed back because of the shortened holiday week. Before the EIA data comes out, the American Petroleum Institute issues a competing report based on its own supply data.

The forecast for both reports was for a draw of -2.3 million barrels. But the API release, which came out last night after the market closed, showed a larger draw of -3.172 million barrels instead.

If the EIA data confirms this draw, it could be bullish for crude. If it is smaller than the API's -3.172 million barrels, or is a positive number indicating a build, it could be bearish for crude.

The EIA is a government body, and the API is a private industry group. The two reports do not always agree either in terms of amount or direction.