ADP may say we're making a few jobs, but claims doesn't agree:
In the week ending July 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 418,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 432,000. The 4-week moving average was 424,750, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average of 427,750.
Former week revised up again, and we still have a "4" handle.
I just don't see it here folks. I know the expectations for the NFP report just got boosted, and with cause given the ADP numbers, but the claims are now over 400k for 13 weeks running.
This is simply incongruent with job growth. Either the claims numbers are wrong (unlikely) or the other "estimates" and "beliefs" are wrong. If the former, then the market's fine and the economy, while somewhat sluggish, is no big deal.
If the latter, we're going to print a negative jobs figure within the next two to three months and likely a negative GDP by 1Q 2012.
Pick one - this is a binary deal and the bad news is that the "muddle through" scenario is the one that's currently priced into the market.