Trading Week Outlook: July 18 - 22, 2011

by: All Things Forex

Uncertainty about the outcome of the U.S. debt ceiling vote and the EU debt crisis woes will continue to rattle the financial markets in the week ahead which will include series of important U.S. housing reports and forward-looking indexes of economic conditions in the Euro-zone.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.

1. NZD- New Zealand CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, Sun., July 17, 6:45 pm, ET.

The market has been pricing a Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hike by the end of the year and rising inflationary pressures could support these expectations, especially if consumer prices shoot significantly above the previous quarter’s increase of 0.8% q/q.

2. EUR- Euro-zone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions and business expectations, Tues., July 19, 5:00 am, ET.

Expectations of a slowdown in economic activity are forecast to bring the ZEW economic sentiment index lower with a reading of -7.4 in July, compared with -5.9 in June.

3. USD- U.S. Housing Starts, a leading indicator of housing market activity measuring construction of new residential properties, Tues., July 19, 8:30 am, ET.

Although still weak, the U.S. housing market could register a slight improvement with the housing starts rising to 575K in June from 560K in May, while the building permits remain unchanged at 610K.

4. CAD- Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement, Tues., July 19, 9:00 am, ET.

As commodity prices cool off and inflationary pressures begin to subside, the Bank of Canada is forecast to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 1.0% in July and possibly throughout the summer.

5. GBP- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Minutes, a comprehensive report of the central bank’s meeting that could provide an outlook on the economy, interest rates and future monetary policy, Wed., July 20, 4:30 am, ET.

Two weeks after the Bank of England’s decision to keep rates at their record low 0.5% level for another month in July, the minutes could confirm the market’s expectations that the Monetary Policy Committee is not in a hurry to raise interest rates anytime soon.

6. USD- U.S. Existing Home Sales, the main gauge of the condition of the U.S. housing market measuring the number of closed sales of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops, Wed., July 20, 10:00 am, ET.

The sales of existing homes in the U.S. could instill some cautious optimism with forecasts pointing to an increase to 4.95M in June from 4.81M in May.

7. EUR- Euro-zone Composite PMI- Purchasing Managers Index, a leading indicator of economic activity in the manufacturing and service sectors, Thurs., July 21, 4:00 am, ET.

Some signs of a slowdown in the Euro-zone could become more visible by a Composite PMI reading of 52.7 in July, compared with 53.3 in the previous month.

8. GBP- U.K. Retail Sales, an important gauge of consumer spending measuring sales at retail establishments, Thurs., July 21, 4:30 am, ET.

Stronger summer consumer spending could help the U.K. retail sales to recover from the 1.4% drop in May with an increase by 0.5% m/m in June.

9. EUR- Germany IFO Institute Business Climate and Expectations Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions and business expectations in the Euro-zone’s largest economy, Fri., July 22, 4:00 am, ET.

Just as the ZEW survey, the German IFO index is forecast to show a shift lower in the outlook for the largest economy in the Euro-zone with a reading of 113.3 in July from 114.5 in June.

10. CAD- Canada CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, Fri., July 22, 7:00 am, ET.

The Bank of Canada’s expectations of a pullback in price pressures could be confirmed by a 0.2% m/m drop in the consumer price index in June, compared with the 0.7% m/m increase in May.