Putting My Money Where My Mouth Is - Stocks I Own in My Portfolio

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 |  Includes: AEO, ARAY, ARCO, ATVI, CNK, DNDN, F, IMAX, MCD, MNST, P, RGC, SIRI
by: Chris Katje

One of the criticisms I have received while writing for Seeking Alpha over the past three years is recommending stocks for purchase which I have no position in. My common response is that I am a small investor who is only long in several stocks and if I had the money I would likely go long in everything I recommend. Seeking Alpha is an outlet to provide my opinions and analysis of stocks which I normally like and would recommend buying. I also point out that there is a lot of possible pumping and dumping that happens anytime analysts or amateur investors recommend buying stocks which they own.

My top ten lists released in January the past three years have been successful performance-wise. My recent write up on how my current top ten is performing (click here for article) shows that this year is a struggle for the stocks I recommended back in January. I decided to do an article showing exactly what companies I own. This article does not have full analysis but more of a why I bought them short description. I wanted to share my thoughts with readers and provide some sort of price targets. Those people who read my articles will recognize several of the names.

My positions by weighting:

Imax Corporation (NYSE:IMAX)

  • 07/14/11: $27.97
  • 12/31/11 Target: $35.00
  • Projected Gain: 25%

What They Do:

Imax is a large screen entertainment company specializing in digital theater technology. Imax, based out of Canada, has grown from showing educational documentaries in planetariums and aquariums, to the large worldwide movie company it is today. The company licenses out screens to large movie theater chains like AMC, Regal, and Cinemark.

Imax makes money through the initial purchase of the screen, maintenance of equipment and new movie releases. New movie releases are sold to some theaters for a flat fee while others are shared for a percentage of the total money made by a theater. These joint ventures are newer in IMAX’s business model but have been the trend the company is shifting to.

How Long I Have Owned:

Imax is the oldest holding in my portfolio and I have owned shares in the stock for over four years. I have bought the stock several times throughout those four years accumulating shares in the $4, $8, and $15 range. I recently sold some shares at $35 to take some profits and reinvest in other companies.

Where the Company is Headed:

IMAX has had a successful 2011 in all areas. The company has announced several theater signings, including a deal the day I am writing this article, and continues to expand overseas. New joint ventures will bring in additional revenue each year as opposed to the initial building and one time fees from installs. The company will likely see full maturity in the United States market in several years but is far away from the number of screens it can realistically build in other countries.

The company currently has the last Harry Potter movie, Deathly Hallows Part 2, in theaters today and many screens are sold out across the nation and will likely be all weekend. The rest of 2011 brings Cowboys and Aliens, Real Steel, Puss in Boots, Happy Feet 2, Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol, and The Adventures of Tintin. Out of these movies Puss in Boots, Happy Feet 2, Mission Impossible, and the current Harry Potter movie are sequels or spinoffs and have a built in movie viewing fan base.

Movies like these typically have a good first two week run, which is what Imax could use right now. Cowboys and Aliens and The Adventures of Tintin have a built in base of fans of the original stores from the comic, and book, respectively. Both movies are being heavily marketed to their fan base at events such as Comic Con.

I sold some shares at $35, locking in long term gains, and seeing a slight weakness at this level. With shares under $28, look for Harry Potter numbers this weekend to bring the stock back up to $30. Buy and hold for the long term. Company is still growing by screens and overseas markets and will continue to release the biggest blockbuster movies each year.

Dendreon (NASDAQ:DNDN)

  • 07/14/11: $39.14
  • 12/31/11 Target: $50.00
  • Projected Gain: 28%

What They Do: Dendreon is a leading biotechnology company in the prostate cancer field. The company’s Provenge was approved last year to be used in prostate cancer patients. The company is currently expanding manufacturing capabilities to produce more of the drug to meet demand for the product.

How Long I Have Owned:

I have owned shares of Dendreon for over a year and a half. I owned shares before the FDA approved Provenge. The day after approval shares shot up to $55 and I continued to hold shares as I do now. I purchased the shares leading up to approval but also for the long term. I recommended shares in my top ten stock picks for 2009 at $4.58 a share. I owned no shares of stock when I recommended it and regret not buying a small portion of shares in 2009.

Over my life time of following stocks my three biggest timing misses are: not buying American Eagle shares when I was a teenager, not purchasing Hansen Natural, and not pulling the trigger on Dendreon quick enough.

In American Eagle, I missed out on several splits and a large increase in share value, by purchasing baseball cards and not convincing my father enough to buy shares as I was too young to purchase. In Hansen Natural, I came to love Monster energy drinks when I was in high schools and saw their increasing presence in gas stations, convenience stores, and eventually big box retailers. I recognized a cool factor and a likelihood of increased demand but never could quite come to buying shares. Dendreon was a company I followed for a long time but recognized the risks of investing in a biotechnology company with most of its future tied to one drug needing FDA drug approval. I watched shares steadily climb over a six month period before I finally decided to buy in before an approval decision was made.

Where the Company is Headed:

I have since considered buying more shares of Dendreon at several levels including $35 and the current $38 which has been tested lately. Shares see large increases and decreases weekly based on news releases. The company is a large holding of George Soros and other hedge fund managers. The company is likely to meet sales goals for the year of Provenge and is on schedule to open more manufacturing plants in the fall of 2011. I continue to hold shares and like the prospects of Neuvenge and the potential of the company entering other areas of cancer.

Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI)

  • 07/14/11: $2.25
  • 12/31/11 Target: $2.75
  • Projected Gain: 22%

What They Do:

Sirius is the company left from the merger of Sirius Satellite Radio and XM Satellite Radio. The companies merged to create a company which would save subscription costs and acquisition costs by not having a direct competitor. The company currently competes with Pandora, last.fm, traditional radio, and several other internet companies. Some people see Pandora as a competitor and others don’t. It will depend on what aspect of the business or who you discuss with to get a clearer answer. The company has emerged from close to bankruptcy and is on an uptrend currently.

How Long I Have Owned:

I have owned shares of Sirius for several months now buying in below $2. The funny story is Sirius was actually the first stock I owned, when I purchased shares back in 2005, but then sold shortly after before the company dropped dramatically in value.

Where the Company is Headed: Sirius shares are one of the most heavily traded stocks on the exchanges. Shares can have 5% pops and drops daily. The company however is showing strong signs of growth and breaking out of the $2 range where it is trapped. The announcement of Sirius 2.0, along with an increased guidance, share buybacks, payment of debt, subscriber growth, or major celebrity signings could all propel the stock significantly higher. There are not a lot of things that could negatively impact the stock right now.

Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI)

  • 07/14/11: $11.84
  • 12/31/11 Target: $14.00
  • Projected Gain: 18%

What They Do:

Activision Blizzard is the largest gaming company in the world consisting of two divisions, one aimed at console video games, and one aimed at role playing computer games. The company owns Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Starcraft, Diablo, and many other games.

How Long Have I Owned:

I have owned shares of Activision for over two years. I have bought in twice in that time frame and plan on holding for the long term.

Where the Company is Headed:

The company faces increased competition from the emergence of social and online gaming. The company needs to make acquisitions or better integrate its games into a social atmosphere. Activision is taking steps in the right direction with its Call of Duty Elite operative I wrote about earlier (click here for article). Next year will see the introduction of Diablo 3, which is a long anticipated computer video game. The newest expansion pack for Starcraft will also be introduced to audiences in 2012. The new Call of Duty game comes out in November of this year (2011), which could lead to a slight run up of share price for the holiday season.

Arcos Dorados Holdings (NYSE:ARCO)

  • 07/14/11: $21.00
  • 12/31/11Target: $25.00
  • Projected Gain: 19%

What They Do:

Arcos is the largest franchisor of McDonalds (NYSE:MCD) restaurants and holds the rights to franchise or sell the franchise rights for McDonalds in Latin and South America. The company went public in April of 2011 and has seen its shares trade from $20 to $26.

How Long Have I Owned:

I bought share of Arcos in May after the IPO price had dropped slightly from a great first week increase. This company represents the first time I have bought a stock that is newly traded.

Where the Company is Headed:

The company began trading with what some analysts consider a rich valuation. I believe shares are headed higher. This is the biggest pure play on restaurants in both Latin America and South America. The proceeds from the IPO will be used to open more stores in new markets. I have watched the stock and will be actively waiting for it to drop to $20 to accumulate more shares.

Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F)

  • 07/14/11: $13.09
  • 12/31/11 Target: $18.50
  • Projected Gain: 41%

What They Do:

Ford is one of the three largest auto manufacturers in the World. The company makes cars, trucks, and suvs. Ford is based out of the Detroit area, where the city has been hit hard by the economic times. Ford, like other companies, is increasing its presence in overseas markets including emerging markets, by building new factories and production facilities.

How Long Have I Owned:

Ford is my most recent purchase. I have held shares for just over a month and bought in at the $14 level.

Where the Company is Headed:

Shares are currently trading around $13 and have been on a decline. Shares are close to their fifty two week low of $10.95 hit in September in 2010. Shares hit a fifty two week high back in January of 2011. I purchased shares because I think they are heavily undervalued. Ford is a great turnaround story as it has been paying off debt and focusing on new products in America and emerging markets.

The company did not accept a government bailout like other auto stocks did to survive. My analysis is that shares will see a new fifty two week high by the end of the year, passing $18. I am long Ford until it hits $20 a share, whether that is the end of the year or after. At that time I may consider selling some shares and hanging on to part of my position. I have a price target of $18.50 by the end of the year, which represents an amazing 41% return possible.

Accuray (NASDAQ:ARAY)

  • 07/14/11: $8.40
  • 12/41/11 Target: $10.50
  • Projected Gain: 25%

What They Do:

Accuray is a medical device company that markets and sells the Cyberknife. Cyberknife provides radiation to any specific part of the body. This technology allows the radiation to target an infected area rather than other treatments which may expose other parts of the body to radiation.

How Long Have I Owned:

I have owned Accuray for over three years and it currently is my smallest holding. I have sold shares of the company once over the three years.

Where the Company is Headed:

Shares have traded in a range of $5.85 to $11.16 over the last fifty two weeks. Shares are currently at the mid-point of that range. The company recently acquired TomoTherapy, which will help the company’s distribution line. The consolidation of the two medical devices will help unlock gains by saving on manufacturing and production lines.

Cash

I have a small cash position as well and am currently considering several companies to purchase. As I said earlier I will consider also adding to ARCO or DNDN if the price is right.

All prices listed are as of close on Thursday, July 14, 2011.

Disclosure: I am long IMAX, DNDN, SIRI, ATVI, ARCO, F, ARAY.