Intuitive Surgical a Bullish Play for Longs and Shorts After Earnings

Traders looking to play off Intuitive Surgical's (ISRG) Q2 report tonight should be watching how the stock reacts in tonight's after-hours trade. ISRG has a strong tendency to add to its earnings-driven after-hours trade in the following day's regular session.

ISRG has seen wider follow-on regular session movement on the heels of 18 of its last 26 extended-hours quarterly reports, 69% of the time. However, some caution is warranted as the very near-term performance has turned mixed: two widening moves and two narrowing moves in four quarters.

Looking deeper into the performance data, ISRG has recorded an after-hours gain in 16 of the quarters we've tracked, adding to its gains the next day in 12 quarters (75% of the time). The stock has recorded an after-hours decline in 10 quarters, adding to its evening declines in next-day trade in six quarters, or 60% of the time.

ISRG is expected to report a Q2 profit of $2.71 per share on revenue of $410.4 million, according to Thomson Reuters.

The historical trading data follows:

On April 14, 2011, the stock eased 1.2% in after-hours trading following a report that actually beat Street expectations. The loss was trimmed to 0.5% the next day.

On Jan. 20, 2011, ISRG surged 11.1% in after-hours action after topping Q4 estimates. The stock firmed even higher the following day, closing the Jan. 21 regular session up 12.6%.

On Oct. 19, 2010, the stock fell 3.7% during evening trading after missing with revenue. Shares dropped 7% the next day.

On July 21, 2010, the stock fell 6.3% during extended-hours trading after a Q2 beat. Shares edged up 0.2% the next day.

On April 15, 2010, the stock fell 3.1% during after-hours trading following a Q1 beat. Shares fell a deeper 7.1% the next day.

On Jan. 21, 2010, the stock advanced 7.8% during extended-hours trading after a Q4 beat. The gain swelled to 11.7% the next day.

On Oct. 20, 2009, ISRG declined 6.5% in night trading despite topping Q3 expectations. It saw some of that downside narrow the next day, ending the Oct. 21 regular session down 5.6%.

On July 22, 2009, ISRG charged 15.3% higher in after-hours trading following better-than-expected Q2 results. The stock continued heading north the following day, closing the July 23 regular session up 26.8%.

On April 16, 2009, ISRG gained 4% in pre-market trading despite missing Q1 revenue expectations and posting in-line EPS results. It reversed course in the regular session, ending up a mere 0.5%.

On Jan. 22, 2009, the stock fell 5% after ISRG met with earnings but missed with revenue. The loss was trimmed the next day to 2.8%.

On Oct. 16, 2008, the stock fell 0.4% as results topped the year-ago quarter but missed Street estimates. The loss swelled to 11.9% the next day.

On July 22, 2008, the stock jumped 11.7% in evening trading after beating the Street with Q2 results. The increase was a more robust 18.1% the next day.

On April 17, 2008, ISRG shed 9.7% in after-hours trading despite beating Q1 expectations. The stock added to its downside the following day, declining 17.2% by the closing bell on April 18.

On Jan. 31, 2008, the stock jumped 14.9% during evening trading after ISRG reported ahead of the Street with Q4 results. The gain swelled to 20.3% the next day.

On Oct. 18, 2007, ISRG advanced 5.7% in evening action on the heels of Q3 results that bested the then-current Street view. The stock lost a bit of its upside the following day, closing the Oct. 19 regular session with a 5% rise.

On July 19, 2007, the stock jumped 11.9% in evening trading after ISRG reported better-than-expected Q2 results. The gain swelled to 32.3% the next day.

On April 19, 2007, ISRG rose 3.7% in night trading after topping Q1 estimates. Shares jumped the next day, ending the regular session up 8.7%.

On Feb. 1, 2007, shares jumped 16.8% in the evening session after the company blew past Street expectations with its latest earnings. Shares were up a slightly stronger 17.5% the next day.

On Oct. 26, 2006, the stock managed a 0.5% evening gain after beating Q3 results. The Street soured on the stock the next day however and it closed down 10.2%.

On July 26, 2006, ISRG dropped 8.9% in after hours despite the company beating Q2 estimates. Shares fell further the next day, closing the regular session down 10.8%.

On April 27, 2006, ISRG jumped 13.9% in evening trading after blowing past Q1 expectations. The shares surged the next day, ending regular trade up 23.1%.

On February 2, 2006, ISRG dropped 8.6% in after hours despite reporting improved Q4 results from a year ago. ISRG slipped further, closing the next day session down 9.8%.

On Oct, 25, 2005, shares surged 27.3% in night trading after Q3 topped the Street's bets. The next day's gain was a marginally slimmer 25.3%.

On July 26, 2005, ISRG ended the night session up 23.3% after the company reported Q2 results that handily beat estimates. The stock widened its gains the next day, ending regular hours trading up 26.3%.

On February 8, 2005, ISRG jumped 13.6% in the evening session after the company beat Q4 expectations. Shares added to those gains, ending the next day's regular hours trading session up 15.3%.

On October 26, 2004, ISRG beat Q3 estimates and ended the night session up 10.8%. The stock widened gains the next day, ending regular hours up 17.9%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Source: Intuitive Surgical a Bullish Play for Longs and Shorts After Earnings