Whisper Number Earnings Briefs: Intel, eBay, Amex

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Includes: AXP, EBAY, INTC
by: John Scherr

According to WhisperNumber.com:

INTEL (NASDAQ:INTC)

Intel whisper number is $0.53, two cents ahead of analyst estimates.

Last quarter Intel reported earnings twelve cents ahead of the whisper number. The stock reacted to the whisper number, seeing a positive price move of 6.1% in five trading days.

Intel has topped the whisper number in three out of the past four earnings reports.

Intel has a 55% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 26 of the 47 earnings reports for which we have data).

EBAY (NASDAQ:EBAY)

eBay whisper number is $0.47, one cent ahead of analyst estimates.

eBay has topped the whisper number in the past four quarters, but the price reaction has been inconsistent. In other words if you took a long position prior to the past four earnings reports you were on the right side of the trade in two out of four trades.

Intel has a 67% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 32 of the 48 earnings reports for which we have data).

AMERICAN EXPRESS (NYSE:AXP)

Amex whisper number is $1.00, two cents ahead of analyst estimates.

Last quarter Amex reported earnings five cents ahead of the whisper number. The stock reacted to the whisper number, seeing a positive price move of 2.5% in five trading days. In the quarter prior to that, they fell short of the whisper and realized a negative price move of 3.3% in five trading days.

Amex has a 35% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in only 9 of the 26 earnings reports for which we have data).

When analyzing the data WhisperNumber.com collects, the most important aspects are how a company reacts to beating or missing the whisper number, the average post earnings price movement, and in what timeframe (see link in profile to receive alerts). Keep in mind that trading on whispers is a technical play on market psychology, rather than a bet on a company's fundamental strengths.

A company's 'reaction' to the whisper number expectation is the key - on average companies that exceed the whisper are 'rewarded', while companies that miss are 'punished' following an earnings report.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.