Leading Economic Index Increases in June

by: Mark J. Perry

Despite a lot of uncertainties and concerns about a pending economic slowdown, the Conference Board reported yesterday that its Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased again in June, as part an upward trend in the index that started in April 2009 (see chart above). The ongoing increases in the 10-variable composite economic forecasting index suggest that positive economic growth will continue this year, even if the rate of growth moderates, and the chances of a double-dip recession this year remain very low.

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board:

The U.S. LEI continued to increase in June, but the strengths among the leading indicators have been balanced with the weaknesses in recent months. The Coincident Economic Index, a monthly measure of current economic activity, continued to increase slowly. The leading indicators point to slowly expanding economic activity in the coming months.

In recent weeks, the Conference Board has also reported strong increases in the Leading Economic Indexes for the U.K. (0.6%), Korea (0.4%) and China (0.5%), all for the month of May.