Silicon Labs' Post-Earnings Pattern: Longs and Shorts Should Be Wary

| About: Silicon Laboratories, (SLAB)

Silicon Labs (NASDAQ:SLAB) is due with Q2 results in the pre-market on Monday, July 25. The Street expects the company to report a profit of $0.46 per share on revenue of $127 million, according to a Thomson Reuters survey of analysts. The stock is just favoring the reversal trend, cutting back its extended-hours performance in follow-on regular session trade in 17 of the last 29 quarters.

This stock remains a volatile post-earnings mover. Looking deeper into the data, the stock has posted gains in response to earnings for 14 quarters, extending that gain six times, or 43% of the time. The stock has declined 15 times, extending that move in only six instances.

On April 27, SLAB dipped 0.6% in pre-bell action despite beating Q1 estimates. It added slightly to its decline in that day's regular session, ending down 0.7%. In the Jan. 26 pre-market, the stock fell 3.4% after reporting an earnings beat. It fell a steeper 7.1% during the following regular trading session.

On Oct. 27, 2010, the stock fell 1.3% after warning with revenue guidance, following a Q3 EPS beat. Shares rebounded to gain 1.7% the next day. On July 28, 2010, the stock fell 5.8% after a Q2 beat but guidance that could disappoint. Shares fell 3.4% during regular trading. In the April 28, 2010 pre-market, the stock gained 1% after the company an EPS beat and in-line revenue. Shares reversed and closed down 1.2% the next day. On Feb. 3, 2010, the stock fell 4.4% in extended-hours trading after an earnings beat was eclipsed by a revenue meet. Shares rebounded to gain 1.6% during regular trading.

On Oct. 28, 2009, the stock slipped 0.1% after SLAB beat with Q3 results and guided in line for Q4 revenue. Shares fell a slightly deeper 0.8% the next day. On July 29, 2009, SLAB dipped 0.5% in pre-market trade despite topping Q2 estimates. The stock reversed direction in the follow-on regular session, ending the day up 7.6%. On April 29, 2009, SLAB advanced 11.2% in pre-market action on the heels of better-tha-expected Q1 results. The stock firmed higher in the following regular session, ending up 14.7%. On Feb. 4, 2009, SLAB declined 4.7% in pre-market trade after reporting revenue shy of expectations but beating earnings estimates. The stock reversed into the green in the Feb. 4 regular session, ending the day up 1.7%.

On Oct. 29, 2008, SLAB advanced 0.3% in pre-bell trade after beating earnings expectations. The stock firmed higher the following regular session, ending up 6.4%. On July 30, 2008, the stock gained 6.6% during pre-market trading after reporting a Q2 beat and guiding for Q3 revs above the Street view. Shares finished the regular session later that day up 3.2%. On April 29, 2008, the stock finished pre-market action up 0.7% after results showed a Q1 beat and guidance that was in line to above the Street view. The stock reversed and shed 4.2% during that day's regular session. On Jan. 30, 2008, SLAB charged 12.2% higher in pre-market trade after posting stronger-than-expected results and guidance. Its upside scaled back just a bit in the regular session, with the stock ending the day up 11.8%.

On Oct. 24, 2007, SLAB gained 5.1% in pre-market trade after beating Q3 expectations and setting guidance above the Street view. It firmed higher in the Oct. 24 regular session, ending the day up 6%. On July 25, 2007, SLAB gained 1.9% in pre-bell action after beating Q2 earnings estimates and announcing a stock buyback plan. It lost the early gain and ended the July 25 regular session down 1.7%. On April 25, 2007, SLAB advanced 3.3% in pre-market trade after topping Q1 expectations but also guiding its Q2 below the Street. The stock lost the bulk of its gains in that day's regular session, ending up a mere 0.7%. On Jan. 31, 2007, SLAB fell 10.7% in the pre-market session after reporting ahead with Q4 revenue but guiding for revenue below the Street view. Shares fell a slightly slimmer 8.9% during regular trading.

On Oct. 23, 2006, SLAB declined 6.5% in pre-market trade after the company beat Q3 expectations but guided its Q4 sales outlook below Street forecasts. The downside evaporated in the following regular session, with SLAB ending the Oct. 23 bell-to-bell trade up 2.3%. On July 24, 2006, SLAB gained 11.9% in pre-market trade after the company beat earnings expectations, announced a stock buyback, and set guidance that straddled the then-current Street view. The stock added to its upside in that day's regular session, rising 21% by the bell-to-bell close. On April 24, 2006, SLAB slid 7.7% in pre-market trade after the company beat Q1 expectations and guided mostly in line for its Q2. The stock continued to head south in that day's regular session, closing down 10.7%. On January 25, 2006, SLAB advanced 16.3% in premarket trade after the company beat Q4 expectations and guided higher. It recorded more plus-side movement in the regular session, ending the day up 18%.

On Oct. 24, 2005, SLAB soared 16.6% in pre-market trade after the company beat Q3 expectations and guided in-line to higher on Q4 sales. It added even headier gains in that day's regular session, advancing 21.1% by the day's closing bell. On July 22, 2005, SLAB slid 4.3% in pre-market trade after posting lower Q2 results and guiding Q3 below the Street. It changed direction in the July 22 regular session, erasing its loss and climbing 2.6% by the close. SLAB plunged 8.2% on the night of April 25, 2005, after reporting lower Q1 results and guiding Q2 revenue toward the lower end of the Street range. In a rare instance of widening, it lost even more ground in the April 26 regular session, plummeting 15.9%. SLAB soared 21.3% in the after-hours on Jan. 24, 2005 after the company beat Q4 expectations and set its Q1 sales view ahead of the Street mean. The stock cut a good chunk of its evening gains in next-day trade, holding a 14.5% rise by the bell-to-bell close on Jan. 25.

SLAB slid 20.7% the night of Oct. 25, 2004 after the company missed on revenue and guided its sales below the Street view. It cut its downside modestly the next day, ending the Oct. 26 regular session off 19%. On the night of July 26, SLAB plummeted 22% in night trade after setting its outlook below expectations. The stock narrowed its declines by the close of the July 27 regular session, declining 11.8%. Back on April 26, the stock dipped 4.5% in after-hours trade following better-than-expected results and strong guidance. It ended the next day down 4.9%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.