You’ve got to love the timing. With the US mired in a debt and spending crisis, tax revenues stagnant and its government about to run out of borrowed money to spend, the Chinese government just announced that its fiscal revenues during the first half of 2011 rose by 29.6% compared to a year earlier. One country is a fiscal train-wreck, the other a fiscal gusher.
Fiscal policy, as every investor in the US now sees, can have sudden, large impacts on the stock market. In contrast, no one need worry about China running out of money. This removes a major source of volatility from Chinese shares.
China’s tax revenues are surging for a host of reasons that set it apart from the US: The economy is booming and businesses are thriving. According to the Chinese Ministry of Finance, profit taxes are growing especially quickly. Income and corporate tax rates are stable, at rates far lower than in the US. China levies a nationwide VAT, while most of the US charges sales tax. Consumer spending is growing by over 20% in China, while it’s basically flat in the US.
To all these must be added another crucial difference: China is modernizing so quickly that every year money pours in from new sources. China doesn’t need to raise tax rates to increase tax revenue. It just allows its citizens to get on with their lives.
Take auto sales. A decade ago, China produced and sold about two million cars. This year, it will sell about 20 million. China passed the US two years ago to become the world’s largest auto market. Since then, sales have grown by a further 40%.
Along with creating some of the world’s worst traffic congestion, all these new car sales do wonders for the country’s fiscal situation. Start with the fact that every car sold in China has not just a 17% VAT built into its price, but a host of other taxes and levies. A consumption tax adds as much as 40% more to the sticker price depending on the size of the engine. Customs duties are also levied on imports.
These all add up fast. The government’s tax take from the sale of a single Mercedes-Benz can easily top Rmb325,000 ($50,000). Last year alone, sales of Mercedes-Benz in China doubled. This year, Mercedes will sell about 180,000 cars in China. Total tax take: About $1 billion. Keep in mind that Mercedes-Benz has less than 1% of the Chinese market. BMW, Porsche (OTCPK:POAHF) and Lexus (NYSE:TM) are also doing great in China. While they are all doing well, the Chinese government does even better. The government earns far more on the sale of every luxury car than the manufacturers do.
The sales and consumption taxes are just the start. Most news cars in China are sold to new drivers. That means, every year, there’s a significant net increase in the consumption of gasoline. Each liter of gasoline also carries a variety of different taxes – VAT, consumption tax, resource tax. Plus, almost every gas station and refiner in China is owned by companies majority-owned by the Chinese government, so profits at the pump flow back to the government.
At the moment, the gasoline price in China is about Rmb7.5 per liter, or Rmb30 ($4.60) per gallon. Figure the Chinese government is making about Rmb10 ($1.50) per gallon sold in tax. Each new car sold this year will likely contribute an additional $500-600 in fuel taxes, or about Rmb100 billion in total. Again, a big chunk of that will be a net increase in fiscal revenues, since there are so many new drivers each year.
Think the same for sales of new apartments, air-conditioners, iPads (NASDAQ:AAPL) and iPhones, plane and high-speed train tickets. Each one has all sorts of taxes built into its sales price, and then an annuity of future tax revenues from energy taxes, fees and assessments.
In the US, taxes and spending are so high, people grow more and more reluctant to spend. Huge budget deficits today, as Milton Friedman long ago established, create the expectation of tax increases tomorrow. Americans adjust their spending accordingly. Not so in China. Chinese keep spending and the government reaps the bounty.
As flush as the Chinese economy now is, tax revenues represent only one part of the government’s huge cash hoard. To begin with, there's the over $3 trillion in official foreign exchange reserves. This money contributes little to no benefit to the economy as a whole, except bottling up pressure on the renminbi to appreciate against the dollar. It’s basically money buried in the backyard.
The government also owns significant – often controlling — shares in the country’s biggest and most profitable companies, including SinoPec (NYSE:SHI), China Mobile (NYSE:CHL), and China Telecom (NYSE:CHA).
Net profits at the 120 biggest centrally-controlled Chinese SOEs rose by 14.6% year-on-year during the first half of 2011, reaching Rmb457.17 billion ($71 billion) . These 120 SOEs are meant to pay taxes and levies of almost twice that, Rmb850 billion, up 26.4% from 2010. No one quite knows how much of that money actually reaches the Chinese Treasury. But, of course, the money is there, should it be needed – in a way the US Social Security “Trust Fund” most assuredly is not.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.