Juniper Holds Consistent Trade for Longs Off Earnings Moves

Jul.26.11 | About: Juniper Networks (JNPR)

Juniper Networks (NYSE:JNPR) has been a steady play for long traders in its post-earnings after hours movement over the last eight years, consistently adding to evening gains in the next day's regular session trade. Even on the short side, the stock maintains a pattern of heading deeper in the red the next day, although the data doesn't stack up as firmly as the upside.

Broadly, JNPR has seen more aggressive next-day percentage regular session movement following 16 of its last 29 earnings-driven after hours trades (55% of the time).

One note of caution: The near-term performance has moved toward a reversal pattern, with the stock cutting back its evening move or reversing direction in next-day trade in seven of the last eight quarters.

Looking deeper into the performance data, the stock has recorded an after hours gain in 14 of those quarters we've tracked, adding to its gains the next day in eight quarters (57% of the time). The stock has recorded an after hours decline in 15 quarters, adding to its evening declines in next-day trade in eight quarters (53% of the time).

The historical performance data follows:

On April 19, 2011, JNPR advanced 3% in night trading after beating Q1 revenue estimates, meeting on earnings, and setting mixed guidance. The stock narrowed its upside the following day, closing the April 20 regular session up 2%.

On Jan. 25, 2011, JNPR gained 2.3% in after hours trading after beating Q4 estimates and setting its Q1 guidance in a range that straddled the Street view. The stock climbed higher the following day, ending the Jan. 26 regular session with a 6.4% gain.

On Oct. 19, 2010, the stock fell 2.1% in after hours trading following in-line Q3 earnings. Shares rebounded to gain 5.2% the next day.

On July 20, 2010, the stock fell 2.6% after a Q2 earnings beat. Shares rose a slimmer 0.6% the next day.

On April 20, 2010, JNPR declined 7.5% in evening trading after topping expectations but also issuing a weaker-than-expected outlook. The stock cut it downside the next day, closing the April 21 regular session down 5.5%.

On Jan. 28, 2010, the stock was up 4.1% in extended hours trading after a Q4 beat and in-line guidance. Shares rose a slimmer 1.4% the next day.

On Oct. 22, 2009, JNPR advanced 1.3% in evening trading after reporting better-than-expected Q3 results and setting its Q4 guidance mostly above the Street view. The stock lost its upside momentum the next day, ending down 3.2% in the Oct. 23 regular session.

On July 23, 2009, JNPR fell 6.4% in after hours trading after a Q2 earnings beat and guidance largely in line with Street views. Shares rebounded to gain 1.1% the next day.

On April 23, 2009, the stock advanced 8.7% after a strong quarterly gain in income matched Street expectations. Shares rose a more robust 15.9% the next day.

On Jan. 29, 2009, the stock fell 8% during evening trading after beating with its latest results but guiding below the Street. Shares doubled that decline to close down 16.5% the next day.

On Oct. 23, 2008, the stock fell 4.6% after beating with Q3 but offering a wide guidance range for Q4. The loss widened to 7.4% the next day.

On July 24, 2008, JNPR surged 10% in night trading after just topping quarterly expectations. The stock added to its upside the following day, rising 17.7% in the July 25 regular session.

On April 24, 2008, JNPR advanced 3.1% in after hours activity after beating Q1 estimates. It found firmer support the next day, rising 3.8% by the April 25 close.

On Jan. 24, 2008, the stock rose 3.4% during evening trading after JNPR reported ahead of the Street with Q4 earnings but later guided mostly in line for Q1 and FY08. The stock reversed and closed down 1.3% the next day.

On Oct. 23, 2007, JNPR fell 6.4% during after hours trading after the company reported ahead of the Street with Q3 results but disappointed with in-line guidance for Q4. The stock fell 8.4% the next day.

On July 18, 2007, JNPR rose 2.8% in after hours when the company topped Q2 sales estimates and met on EPS. It also forecast Q3 and FY sales above Street views. Shares jumped the next day to end the regular session up 12.4%.

On April 23, 2007, JNPR slipped 3.9% in night trading despite meeting on Q1 earnings estimates and topping on EPS. It offered EPS guidance that was in line with forecasts. Shares cut those losses and closed the next day down 1.1%.

On Jan. 30, 2007, the stock fell 6.2% in evening trading after the company topped with Q4 results but guided for 2007 results below the Street's view. Shares fell 8.5% the next day.

On Oct. 18, 2006, JNPR shares rose 1.3% in the evening session after the company reported just ahead of sales estimates. The gain improved to 5.3% the next day.

On July 19, 2006, JNPR edged up 0.07% in night trading after reporting Q2 sales in line with estimates. No EPS data were released due to an ongoing stock options review. The shares slipped the next day, closing the regular session down 0.5%.

On April 19, 2006, JNPR shed 4.5% in after hours trading when the company guided for Q2 sales to be below Street estimates. The shares slid further the next day, ending the regular session down 10.1%.

On Jan. 25, 2006, shares fell 7.3% in evening trading after the company reported revenue shy of expectations. The loss swelled to 20.7% the next day.

On October 19, 2005, JNPR gained 4.2% in evening trading after topping Q3 estimates and guiding on a conference call Q4 sales above Street forecasts. The shares, though, trimmed gains the next day, ending the regular session up 3.6%.

On July 19, 2005, JNPR fell 3.7% despite topping Q2 estimates. It widened that loss in the July 20 regular session, sliding 5.7%.

On April 19, 2005 JNPR jumped 4.4% in night trading after the company beat expectations. More aggressive buying followed on April 20 as the stock ramped up 6.4% by the closing bell.

JNPR edged up 1.8% the night of Jan. 18, 2005, after the company beat Q4 expectations and set its Q1 sales view ahead of analysts' consensus numbers. The stock saw its evening upside lose momentum the next day, and JNPR closed regular session trading down 2.7% on Jan. 19.

Following its Oct. 14, 2004 Q3 report, JNPR slid 6.7% in that night's trading after the company posted better-than-expected results and guided its outlook ahead of estimates. JNPR shares ended the Oct. 15 regular session down a more modest 5%.

Back on July 13, 2004, JNPR added 10.4% in after-hours trading following blowout quarterly results and a hiked outlook. The stock firmed higher the next day, ending the regular session up 11.7%.

On April 21, 2004 JNPR declined 7% despite beating Street expectations. It recorded an abrupt about-face in the following day's action, ending bell-to-bell play up 3.8%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.