Seeking Alpha
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)

By Bryan McCormick

The economic calendar is light for today but includes the Fed's Beige Book survey, which will come out at 2 p.m. ET. This is an anecdotal report on the state of the economy by region, which traders will be parsing carefully.

At 7 a.m. ET the weekly MBA Purchase Applications will be reported. I look only at the purchases component of the mortgage report because it indicates new economic activity, as opposed to refinancing.

There are no forecasts for this release, but last week's purchases came in at 183.7. A number that is higher than 183.7 by 5 percent or more would be bullish. If the number comes in lower than 183.7 by 5 percent or more, it would be bearish.

Durable Goods Orders data comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET. The expectation is for a very small gain of 0.3 percent over the previous month. Forecasts range from a bearish -1.9 percent to a bullish 1.9 percent.

The EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released at 10:30 a.m. ET. Before the EIA data comes out, the American Petroleum Institute issues a competing report based on its own supply data.

The forecast for both reports was for a draw of -1.7 million barrels. But the API release, which came out last night after the market closed, showed a build of 3.96 million barrels instead.

If the EIA data confirms this build or shows an even larger build, it could be bearish for crude. If instead the build number is smaller than the API's 3.96 million barrels, or is a negative number indicating a draw, it could be bullish for crude.

The EIA is a government body, and the API is a private industry group. The two reports do not always agree either in terms of amount or direction.

Source: Mortgage, Oil, Fed Data on Wednesday's Economic Calendar