Now Credit Suisse warns that although a U.S. default is unlikely, the event would trigger a 30% sell-off in stocks. The analysts see a 50-50 chance of a U.S. credit downgrade by the major ratings agencies even if the debt limit is raised, CNBC.com reported.
Credit Suisse also forecast what could happen in equities if the debt ceiling isn’t raised by the Aug. 2 deadline, or in its worst-case scenario, the U.S. defaults on obligations.
If there is no increase in the debt ceiling for a few months, then stocks could fall 15%, the analysts said in a note. A default is “very unlikely, but if it occurs, GDP could fall 5% plus, and equities by 30%,” they said, according to the CNBC.com report.
Although most equity exchange traded funds track the movement of stocks, there are sophisticated ETFs that bet against the market. They’re designed as trading vehicles rather than buy-and-hold funds.
ETFs that short U.S. large-cap stocks include: ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SDS), ProShares Short S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SH), ProShares UltraShort Dow 30 (NYSEArca: DXD), Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (NYSEArca: BGZ) and Rydex Inverse 2x S&P 500 ETF (NYSEArca: RSW).
Some of the ETFs employ leverage and see more volatile swings. [Primer on Leveraged and Inverse ETFs]
ProShares UltraShort S&P 500- (click chart to enlarge)
Max Chen contributed to this article.