The Dow's Drop Hasn't Changed This Bull's Mind

Includes: IYY, SPY
by: Eddy Elfenbein

Eddy Elfenbein submits: I'm currently writing to you from the ledge of the 87th Floor of the Crossing Wall Street Tower.

The good news is that this is a terrific view. The downside, of course, is the market. The crackup on Monday in China has spread to the U.S. At one point, the Dow was off by 546 points. The Dow bounced off that level and finished 416 points lower.

The S&P 500 fell to 1399.04, a drop of 3.47%, which is the index's worst day since March 24, 2004.

In about 30 seconds, the Dow lost over 200 points. Downside volume led upside volume by 100-to-1.

Dow Jones Industrial Avg I

Notice how the big drop in the Dow wasn't mirrored by the S&P 500.

Dow Jones Industrial Avg II

Update: Dow Jones blames it on the computers. Humans are apparently not at fault. (Whew!)

The S&P 500 was down 3.47%, while our Buy List lost 3.19%. For the year, the S&P is down 1.36% and the Buy List is down 0.28%.

One of the biggest changes came from the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX). Look at this jump:

CBOE Volatility Index

Every Dow industry group fell. Of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500, 498 closed lower. Only Radio Shack (NYSE:RSH) and Questar (NYSE:STR) rallied. Cyclical stocks were especially hard hit. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (^CYC) fell 3.86%.

Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index

Five days ago, I wrote another defense of the bull. As I look at the current market, I really haven't changed my mind. I was happy to see that gold fell and money went toward bonds. The 10-year Treasury [^TNX] is nearly at 4.5%. This tells us that money isn't leaving the market, it's merely going to higher ground.