What Does VIX Suggest Is the Near-Term Price Range for SPY?

Includes: IVV, SPY, VIIX, VXX
by: Richard Shaw

The VIX is approximately 23. What does that mean in terms of price range expectations over the next 30 days for SPY (a proxy for the S&P 500)?

The blue parabolic curve in this chart shows the price range that is expected within an 80% probability for SPY based on the current VIX level. For contrast, the green parabolic curve shows the price range that would be predicted with 80% probability based on six months of historical volatility.

The gold line is the 200-day average. The four red lines mark 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% levels below the trailing one-year high.

Click to enlarge

Disclosure: We do not currently hold SPY in most managed accounts as of the publication date of this article.

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