Cramer's Mad Money - Why Cramer Didn't Call the Top (8/4/11)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Thursday August 4.

Why Cramer Didn't Call the Top: Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI), Electronic Arts (ERTS), Transocean (NYSE:RIG), Walter Energy (NYSE:WLT)

Cramer's critics have asked him why he didn't call the top before the devastating 500 point drop in the Dow on Thursday. Cramer said before the "mind-boggingly horrible" deficit compromise, "we were doing okay." Granted, there were some weak numbers, but the deficit talks put a shadow over everything else, and might have even damaged the economy. "We've been lied to" by the European officials about sovereign debt; "I wished I had seen it coming." However, the world isn't ending, and Cramer thinks it is still worth buying stocks on the way down. The only ones who foresaw the current difficulty were the permabears, but they also missed the Dow's move upward when times were good.

Cramer took some calls:

Activision (ATVI) is just not the way the market is heading. While he prefers Electronic Arts (ERTS), in this environment, it doesn't matter, since both stocks lack a strong yield and are too discretionary.

Transocean (RIG) will be low enough to buy at some point, but not yet. Offshore drilling is still not a good place to be, and the stock is not finished going down.

Walter Energy (WLT) reported a poor quarter, and Cramer apologized to the caller for having been bullish on the stock. He thought it would do well as part of the coal supercycle or that it could be acquired. He reiterated the caveat that it is not a good idea to buy a stock on a takeover possibility if the fundamentals are not rock solid. However, Cramer doesn't think WLT is worth selling down at such a low level.

CEO David Brown, (WWWW)

On a terrible day for the market, not every stock was down; (WWWW) shot up 20%, the best performance of almost any other stock on Thursday. It wasn't just the great earnings beat that brought up's share price; but the acquisition of Network Solutions, which now gives access to 2 million new small business customers. Cramer was reluctant to buy the stock when it was at $15, but now that it has dropped to $8, Cramer thinks the decline is a buying opportunity. The private equity group that brokered the deal, General Atlantic, took 18 million shares, which is a sign of confidence in the acquisition.

The deal has been called a "David swallowing Goliath" acquisition, since has a market cap of $180 million and Network Solutions' value is at $270 million. Together the companies form the largest player in providing tools that help small businesses navigate the internet, and has the "first mover advantage." David Brown discussed how the company helps small businesses build and improve websites, and market their products with Twitter. Facebook and mobile. CEO David Brown explained how the company will acquire more subscriptions with its larger marketing budget, thanks to the merger.

Cramer would recommend buying on a decline; "It is going to show the growth I like."

CEO Interview: Don Wood, Federal Realty (NYSE:FRT). Other stock mentioned: Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)

In spite of the sell-off, companies that report strong quarters are still good buys. Federal Realty (FRT), a shopping center REIT, reported a strong quarter after the close on Wednesday, but the good results went unnoticed and the stock was not sent up on the news. FRT reported a 2 cent earnings beat, raised its guidance and its dividend to 3.4% The stock has risen 52% since Cramer got behind it in 2009.

Don Wood discussed how the company has raised its dividend 44 years in a row; "No REIT can say that. It's not about today and it's not about tomorrow." Wood went on to discuss how FRT weathered the recession and showed high operating income. "We have a level of diversification that is unheard of." No one client contributes more than 2.6% of FRT's revenues, and the diversification extends to various geographical regions as well as different types of retailers.

Borders' bankruptcy did not hurt FRT. In fact, it provided an advantage in that it cleared space for the REIT to rent to companies that were more stable. While "there is no question that online shopping is here to stay," Don Wood says he has no reason to fear the likes of Amazon (AMZN), because brick and mortar stores will still have a place in consumers' lives as places close to where they live, work and eat out.

"You are a breath of fresh air on a really dark day, "Cramer told Don Wood.

Look to the Generals: Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), ConEdison (NYSE:ED), Verizon (NYSE:VZ), Unilever (NYSE:UN)

Don't trust any assurances from the government. The real place to look is at the stock market generals: Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN). These stocks are usually the first to pick up on a turnaround and could produce the first buy signals. Other stocks Cramer would consider buying on a decline are high yielding stocks with strong fundamentals like Verizon (VZ), Unilever (UN), ConEdison (ED) or high-yielding MLPs.

The Golden Rule: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD)

People are getting out of gold, but now is not the time, said Cramer, who thinks that gold should make up 20% of all portfolios. Gold is not a commodity but a currency that cannot be devalued. Central banks are buying up the yellow metal while it is getting even harder to find, and if found, more difficult to extract. Of all asset classes, gold has been the top performer for 11 years. He would buy bullion, coins or Gold Trust ETF (GLD), but would avoid miners, which have challenges producing enough supply.


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