Total Employment in the U.S. Falls Again: Expecting the Trend to Continue

by: Gregor Macdonald

Total employment in the United States fell in July by 38,000 people, from 139.334 to 139.296 million. This was a much smaller loss than the previous month. However, once again the average number of total employed for the current year is in decline.

My forecast is that by next year, after revisions and the complete data, 2011′s average—currently at 139.55 million–will fall below 2010′s average of 139.07 million. See the chart below - United States Total Employment in Millions (seasonally adjusted) 2001-2011 (click to enlarge image).

Just as we learned with recent GDP revisions, which showed the economy had still not eclipsed the 2007 highs in real terms, total employment in the United States continues on a flat to downward path.

Slowly but surely, America is coming to accept there was no sustainable economic recovery after 2008. Indeed, the economy is still very much tied down to the conditions of that financial crisis, and will be mired there for several more years.