Seeking Alpha
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  

I have been examining Jim Cramer’s Lightning Round stock picks from a fundamental point of view, explaining my opinions about them. Today, I am glad to see that my articles have been found worthy enough to take place in Cramer’s Picks theme, which was composed of only SA Editor Miriam Metzinger’s articles for a long time. While this motivates me further, I will keep investigating the picks of “Mad Money Host” day by day, using my O-Metrix Grading System and FED+ (Future Earnings Discounted Plus Equity) Model where possible.

On August 4th’s Lightning Round program, Cramer mentioned only four stocks, making two bullish and one bearish calls. I have examined these stocks from a fundamental perspective. Here is a fundamental analysis of these stocks from Cramer's Lightning Round (data obtained from Finviz/Morningstar and is current as of August 4):

Stock Name

Ticker

Cramer's Suggestion

O-Metrix Score

My Take

SodaStream Int.

SODA

Buy

N/A

Cautious Buy

3D Systems

DDD

None

N/A

Hold

Alcoa

AA

Buy

30.49

Cautious Buy

TriQuint

TQNT

Avoid

N/A

Long-term Buy

SodaStream International (SODA): SodaStream is a “big leap of faith,” says Cramer, giving the company his blessings. The Tel Aviv, Israel-based SodaStream was trading at a P/E ratio of 65.4, as of the August 4th close. Analysts expect the company to have an annualized EPS growth of 33.33% in the next five years. It pays no dividend yield, while the profit margin was 6.79% last year. Earnings increased by 42.97% this quarter, and 20.35% this year. Insiders own 60.38% of the stock, while gross margin is 53.79%. SMA50 [simple moving average] and SMA200 are 7.68% and 49.23%, respectively. Target price is $60, implying a 12% downside potential. The stock is trading 12.81% lower than its 52-week high, and it has returned 182% since November 2010. Debts are nearly buried into the ground, while assets are increasing by a landslide. The stock is priced for a pretty high growth premium. P/E ratio is way too high, and the stock is highly volatile. If you accept the risk, you should wait for a dip.

3D Systems Corp. (DDD): Cramer wants to do some homework before making a call on 3D Systems. The company shows a trailing P/E ratio of 25.8, as of August 4th. Estimated annual EPS growth for the next five years is 29.57%. Profit margin is 17.85%, above the industry average of 12.0%. The company had a whopping EPS growth of 1668.19% this year, and 344.13% this quarter. ROA is 15.17%, and institutions own 61.63% of the stock. The debt-to assets ratio has been going down for the last five years, and 3D Systems is currently trading 32.15% lower than its 52-week high. Target price is $25.33, which indicates an about 36.8% increase potential. Analysts give a 2.10 recommendation for the company (1=Buy, 5=Sell). If the long-term estimates hold, this stock will be an outperformer.

Alcoa, Inc. (AA): Cramer does not “want you to sell” Alcoa, and he thinks that “it is a buy right here.” The company has a P/E ratio of 14.9, and a forward P/E ratio of 8.5, as of August 3rd. Analysts expect the company to have a 3% annualized EPS growth in the next five years, which is easily possible if we observe an economic recovery. Alcoa paid a 0.93% dividend, whereas profit margin was 4.0% in 2010. Its O-Metrix score is 2, which, I believe, could be much higher depending on its long-term EPS growth estimate. Institutions own 64.89% of the stock. P/B is 0.9, while P/S is 0.6. Earnings increased by 121.72% this quarter, and 124.28% this year. Target price indicates a 52.5% upside movement potential, while the stock is trading 29.67% lower than its 52-week high. Debt-to assets ratio is slightly going down for the last five quarters. I think target price is beyond Alcoa’s reach, and the stock is likely to underperform in the near-term. However, a dip can bring you to highest peaks in the future.

TriQuint Semiconductor, Inc. (TQNT): I do not like tech, so I'm not going to say buy TriQuint at this level. Don't buy." says Cramer.

TriQuint shows a trailing P/E ratio of 6.3 and a forward P/E ratio of 8.96, as of the August 4th close. Analysts estimate a 14.75% annual EPS growth for the next five years, which sounds conservative given the 38.77% EPS growth of last five years. Net profit margin is 20.6%, slightly above the industry average of 19.2%. ROA is 22.20%, while earnings increased by 994.51% this year. Target price implies a 47.2% upside potential, and the stock is trading 52.83% lower than its 52-week high. PEG value is 0.5. Institutions own 82.49% of the stock, and analysts give a 2.30 rating for TriQuint (1=Buy, 5=Sell). The company faced a serious downfall recently, falling from $10. 21 to $7.48 in just one day. It returned -3.7% in the last twelve months. Debt-to assets ratio is zero percent since 2007. I guess this stock is fairly underpriced, and it will return excellent profits after the Q3. The current price is an advantageous buy.

Source: Recent Calls by Jim Cramer: 2 Bullish, 1 Bearish