Thinking About a Crash

by: Roger Nusbaum

roger nusbaumRoger Nusbaum submits: I can't believe I was able to find a picture of Martin Short as Nathan Thurm.

Many folks hope this week's correction is over. So far I am not sweating this. I remember what 1997 and 1998 felt like, so 4% or whatever just is not the same.

There is nothing wrong with being emotional if that is what you are, but what you do with those emotions is what matters.

Barry's interview on CNBC was a little scary no doubt as he thinks 20% could happen, but he said that the vast majority of the time the market is higher one year later. Think about that for a moment.

The SPX was around 1450. If one year from now it is higher than that does it matter -- really matter -- if it goes down 20% now? I will probably take a little (just a little, as I have a little bit of cash raised now) defensive action if the 200 DMA is breached, but what I take from Barry's comment is that if I cannot successfully avoid a chunk of the decline, the consequence is not that dire.

To be clear I will be disciplined to my exit strategy, but sometimes an exit strategy works as hoped for and sometimes it doesn't.

We are best off not being emotional and sticking to our respective exit strategies, something I preach all the time here regardless of what the market is doing.

HUF vs JPY 04 03 2007