The $200 million figure he is using would be up from $135 million in extra revenues produced by the launch of Tiger, the current version of the software, in June 2005.
One reason for the higher revenue estimate: more users. He figures that Apple’s installed base on Mac users will be 22 million users at the end of March, up from 16 million when Tiger launched. He also thinks that Apple has increased its concentration of consumer users, who buy their own packaged software upgrades, rather than relying on subscription arrangements.
Meanwhile, Bachman says he sees the March quarter in-line with expectations at the revenue line, but with upside to the Street on the EPS line due to the ongoing erosion of NAND flash memory pricing.
Bachman continues to rate the stock a Buy, with a price target of $107.
Apple Friday was down $1.39, at $85.67.