Debt ceilings, downgrades, and sell-offs of epic proportions have combined to make the last few weeks a major headache for investors. With the outlook of the U.S. economy changing drastically, many are unsure of where place their assets. Starting with the debt deal that took longer than expected to pass, markets reacted poorly to the agreement reached and the plan it outlined. While many thought that the worst was over, investors’ attention was immediately grabbed when they saw that Standard and Poor’s, straying from counterparts Moody’s and Fitch, officially removed the U.S. from the AAA rating club [see also ETF Insider: Run For The Hills].
The decision has been met with furious backfire from the Obama administration who claim it was a “facts-be-damned” decision, while others feel that the downgrade had political motives. Still, some analysts feel that a downgrade of our sovereign debt was long overdue, as our debt to GDP ratio is becoming something of a burden as we stare at the largest nominal pile of debt in the history of the world. While this is the first and only downgrade of U.S. debts in its 235 year history, investors should remember that we are still AA+, a rating that many countries can only dream of achieving. Nevertheless, stocks tumbled in reaction to the news, as the mere fact that a U.S. credit rating agency recognized our debts as a serious issue shook investor confidence to the bone.
In terms of the reasons for this historic event, S&P issued a statement stating that, “although we believe these strengths currently outweigh what we consider to be the U.S.’s meaningful economic and fiscal risks and large external debtor position, we now believe that they might not fully offset the credit risks over the next two years at the ‘AAA’ level…more than two years after the beginning of the recent crisis, U.S. policymakers have still not agreed on how to reverse recent fiscal deterioration or address longer-term fiscal pressures”. And the trouble didn’t stop there, as S&P went on to downgrade both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, giving the whole world flashbacks of late 2007 and early 2008.
Earlier today, president Barack Obama issued a statement saying S&P doubts the U.S. political system more than it doubts their debt structure. While the Obama Administration said that the markets feel we are still a AAA country, the president stated that the political instability was the major source of the downgrade, as individual parties refuse “to put what is best for the country ahead of self-interest”.
In this treacherous environment, choosing a safe investment can be a daunting task, as the vast majority of investment options have significant ties to the weakening U.S. economy. Yet, there are assets that exist to help investors make a defensive play in the markets. Below, we outline two ETFs that present strong defensive opportunities in times of extreme market pressure:
IQ Real Return ETF (CPI)
This ETF tracks a benchmark that seeks to provide a hedge against the U.S. inflation rate by providing a real return or a return above the rate of inflation, as represented by the Consumer Price Index. Holdings in this product are generally made up of short term Treasurys as well as some gold exposure. While U.S. debt sounds like the last place anyone wants to be, short term Treasurys have an extremely low possibility of defaulting and their yields– while small– allow investors to keep ahead of inflation. This product will likely remain very flat, but will provide small returns that an investor would miss out on by simply sitting in cash during times of market instability. Furthermore, CPI’s low correlation to major equities make it a strong defensive play for today’s economy; its annualized volatility is just over 2%. The ETF is virtually flat on the year and is slightly up in the trailing 52 week period, more than what can be said of most American equity indexes [see also Inflation ETF Special: 25 ETF Ideas To Fight Rising Prices].
SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
GLD has been one of the most popular ETFs this year, as gold has surged to new historic highs on what seems like a weekly basis. With the precious metal now sitting above $1,700 per ounce, gold has become the one of the hottest commodities of 2011. The metal has long been a safe haven for investors who have grown wary of equities, and as markets have plummeted, inflows to gold have surged. GLD utilizes a physically-backed methodology to give investors exposure to gold bullion itself, and will present itself as one of the most popular ETF investments for however long the current market instability persists [see also ETF Dividend Ideas For 2011].
Disclosure: No positions at time of writing.
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