Ford Motor Co. Jul 2011 Sales/Trading Statement Call

Aug. 2.11 | About: Ford Motor (F)

Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F)

August 02, 2011 1:00 pm ET

Executives

Ken Czubay - Vice President of US Marketing Sales & Service

George Pipas - U.S.

Jenny Lin -

Analysts

DeeAnn Durbin

Alisa Priddle

Patrick Archambault - Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

H. Nesvold - Jefferies & Company, Inc.

Brian Johnson - Barclays Capital

David Welch - BusinessWeek

Patrick Nolan - Deutsche Bank AG

Christopher Ceraso - Crédit Suisse AG

Himanshu Patel - JP Morgan Chase & Co

John Murphy - BofA Merrill Lynch

Jamie LaReau - Automotive News

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Ford Monthly Sales Call. My name is Fab, and I'll be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Mr. George Pipas, Ford U.S. Sales Analyst. Please proceed.

George Pipas

Thank you, Fab, and welcome, everybody. Joining me today are Ken Czubay, Ford Vice President, U.S. Marketing Sales and Service; and Jenny Lin, Ford Senior U.S. Economist.

I want to begin with just a brief statement about the industry. Most forecasters believe that the annualized rate of sales in July is higher than it was in June, and we agree with that prediction. This is definitely a positive data point, one of the few we've seen actually in the last month. But it's definitely a positive data point, and Ken and Jenny will have more to add to the story.

Regarding Ford, our July sales totaled 180,865, up 9% versus a year ago. That was led by a Ford brand, which was up 13% versus a year ago. And Lincoln sales were up 40% versus a year ago. Year-to-date, Ford Motor Company U.S. sales were up 12% versus the same period a year ago. And the Ford brand is up 19%. Lincoln is up 1% in the first 7 months versus the same period a year ago.

For the Ford brand in July, utility vehicles had the biggest increase versus a year ago with sales up 43%. As I mentioned, Lincoln was up 40%, and the MKZ and MKX continue to do well.

Turning to industry segment trends. We note sales in the small car segment continue to be constrained in the month of July by limited inventories. At the beginning of July, you might be interested in knowing that the average day supply for subcompacts and compact cars as we entered the month were 34 and 30, respectively, compared with an overall industry average days supply at the beginning of the month of 54. As a result, or not surprising, we see that small cars captured a smaller share of the overall market in June or in July than they did in June. While utilities as a group gained strength industrywide, certainly true at Ford.

Looking at incentives, data through the third week of July indicate that industrywide incentive spending was up a couple of $100 compared with June. Utilities seemed to be the area where most of the action was focused, which could explain why this category gained strength on an industrywide basis from June to July. I will provide some additional statistics before the Q&A. But right now, I'd like to turn it over to Ken Czubay.

Ken Czubay

Thanks, George, and hello, everybody. Thanks for joining us. As George mentioned, the industry sales pace improved from June to July. We are very encouraged by this result, even more so because the increase appears to be driven by the retail customer. More a little bit later on that.

First, I want to talk about Ford sales. As George said, utilities had the largest year-to-year increase. Escape had its best sales month in the 11-year history of the product, and year-to-date sales are up 29%. It is a proven product offering exceptional value in a growing segment, can't get much better than that. Demand for the new Explorer and Edge also remain strong. Explorer sales were more than double year ago levels, and Edge set a July sales record. Fuel economy and technology are major selling points with our new utilities. Explorer already had leading fuel economy with its 3.5-liter V6, and the story gets better really soon. The 2012 Explorer will offer a 2.0-liter 4-cylinder EcoBoost engine that gets EPA estimated highway fuel economy of 28 miles per gallon. This engine will be offered in the 2012 Edge also.

MyFord Touch continues to be a must-have in the Edge and Explorer. The installation rate is over 80% on the Edge and over 90% on the Explorer. On the car side, sales in July were about even with a year ago. Demand for our 2 new small cars, the Fiesta and Focus, has been very strong. George gave you a lead-in on that. Frankly, stronger than we expected, they are the 2 fastest turning vehicles on the Ford showroom, and they are attracting new customers to the Ford showroom every day, especially in areas of the country like California where small cars are a really big deal. For example, the Los Angeles region continues to be the top sales region for the Fiesta, and L.A. is moving up in the Focus sales rankings. In July, L.A. moved from the number 8 position to the number 4 position and accounted for 10.4% of total U.S. Focus sales.

As I have said before, California is an emerging market for Ford when it comes to small cars, and our dealers tell us they're going right off the lot as fast as they're received. The only downside to stronger-than-anticipated demand is that Fiesta and Focus inventories are very tight. Both the Fiesta and Focus plants are producing at maximum, and we expect to improve the inventory situation going forward.

Truck sales were stable with a year ago. F-Series sales were almost at a 50,000 vehicle level and were down only slightly versus a year ago. Importantly, commercial demand, and I talk about this every month, for F-Series was very strong. Large and small businesses continue to replace their aging fleets and are coming to Ford dealerships. They know F-Series offers the best-in-class fuel economy and capability.

Now I've talked about this for the last couple of months. I'm going to talk about it again. For the third month in a row, the F-150's new V6 engines outsold the V8, 56% this month versus 44% on the V8. That's been increasing every month for the last 3 months the 3.5-liter EcoBoost accounted for 40% of total F-150 sales.

Now a brief update on Lincoln. As you know, we've put in place a dedicated product and marketing organization supporting our plan to make Lincoln a world-class luxury brand. Now we have no illusions about this. This is a formidable challenge because there are several competitors with well-deserved reputations in the marketplace. However, the challenge is not all that much different from the one we faced a few years ago when we said about to rebuild the Ford car brand.

The focus provided by the dedicated team already is paying dividends. Lincoln was named the most dependable brand in the J.D. Power & Associates 2011 Vehicle Dependability Study. And among individual vehicles, the MKZ ranked second in a very competitive vehicle set. In addition, Lincoln recently was named the top brand in the 2011 AutoPacific Vehicle Satisfaction Award program. The first 7 months of this year provides a good baseline from which to measure our progress.

Lincoln's retail share in the first 7 months of 2011 is about 6% of the premium industry, about the same as a year ago. Two products are distinguishing themselves right now, the MKZ sedan and the MKX crossover. Together, they account for about 2/3 of Lincoln retail sales. As we go forward, we expect to broaden and balance the Lincoln product line, introducing 7 new or significantly refreshed models in the next 3 years, including products and luxury segments where we presently do not compete. We're really excited about that.

Another mark of progress will be the extent to which we broaden our geographic boundaries. For example, the West Coast contributes about 11% of Lincoln's retail sales. As we deliver on the promise of world-class products and viewership experience, we would expect to see growth accelerate in the luxury markets across the United States, just like we've demonstrated we can do with small cars on the Ford side.

I want to conclude my comments by expanding on what we consider to be the key takeaway from July's auto sales picture. We estimate that the July SAAR was about 12.2 million vehicles. This would be a 600,000 improvement in the SAAR rate compared with June. That alone is a real positive. Equally, powerfully, the retail customer made a bigger contribution to the total retail results in June.

In the last sales call, we said that June was probably the industry's low point. We expressed the view that the monthly sales rates would improve as inventories are replenished and the economy gets a boost from higher levels of auto production and lower gasoline prices. So despite a series of generally negative news headlines punctuated by the national debate over the deficit and debt ceiling, auto sales moved higher, and this is a good sign for all of us as we go forward.

Now Jenny will update you on the latest economic data. Jenny?

Jenny Lin

Thanks, Ken. Since our last call in July, most economic indicators, both past and present, have been on a softening trend. Three major factors are contributing to the weakness: the fuel price run-up, supply disruptions caused by the crisis in Japan and the loss in confidence. The first 2 factors are reversing. The budget negotiations likely contributed to the drop in confidence, which has cast a shadow on the modest recovery so far. In July, we have seen further declines in the consumer sentiment, primarily due to the renewed concerns about job market recovery and the heightened economic policy uncertainty. Jobless claims remained above 400,000 but trending down slightly in recent weeks. The modest labor market recovery is holding their income gains and consumer confidence.

July Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index declined to 50.9 points, signaling the manufacturing sector is still expanding but at a lower rate -- slower rate. In spite of the challenging environment, as George and Ken just pointed out, there are some positive news. July vehicle sales are estimated at about 12.2 million units on the seasonally adjusted basis. This is a significant increase over June's 11.6 million units. The retail sales in the West region in particular, which has hit hard -- which was hit hard by the supply disruption in the second quarter, is now bouncing back strongly in July as inventory level improves. U.S. gasoline prices were stable during July, providing some relief to the financial pinch felt by many customers. According to Walt's latest forecast, North American production is expected to recover in the third quarter to about 3.4 million units from the 3.2 million units in the second quarter.

To recap, new vehicle sales in July are estimated at 12.2 million units at the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, including medium- and heavy-duty trucks. We remain comfortable at this time with the full year sales forecast at the lower end of the 13.0 to 13.5 million units range.

With this summary, let me turn it back to George. George?

George Pipas

Okay. Thank you, Jenny. Just a few housekeeping items. First of all, a quick one on inventories. At the end of July, we had 379,000 vehicles in stock, including the units that are heading towards our dealers in transit. I think that works out to about a day supply in the low 50s, 52, we estimate at this time. And the car and truck split is 103 for cars and 276 for trucks, and that is up to the 379.

On the retail fleet front, I'm going to give you a couple of data points. First of all, compared with a year ago, as we indicated, including the elimination of Mercury, Ford's -- the Ford Motor Company sales were up 9%. Retail sales were flat compared with a year ago, and the fleet sales were 35% higher. Now that sounds like a big increase and imbalance. But actually, our fleet mix, which was 31%, is I think the second lowest only to January this year. So it's not a high level of fleet business, but it's a high increase versus a year ago. Because last year in July, we did almost no daily rental business. Now however, compared with June, because I think that is an important comparator this month, everybody's interested in how things progressed. The absolute level of sales at Ford compared with June was down 7%. Retail sales were up 2%, and fleet sales were down 22% compared with the month of -- with the previous month of June.

So that I think takes care of the housekeeping items for now. There's no update to production. That was provided when we did our second quarter financial results call. So with that, Fab, if you would begin -- help us begin the Q&A segment of our call, we would appreciate it.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And your first question will come from the line of Chris Ceraso from Credit Suisse.

Christopher Ceraso - Crédit Suisse AG

Just a quick follow-up on the comment you had there on the fleet numbers. Do you have fleet mix numbers just for the Lincoln brand? That seemed particularly strong. I'm wondering if you had a heavier dose of fleet there this month.

George Pipas

No, the big increase, Chris, was more related to sequential changes. If you look at the change versus June, the level of sales is up slightly. But on a year-to-year basis, there's not -- except -- the only exception would be like the Town Car, the doubling of the Town Car sales, that is a fleet product right now. As you well know, we're phasing that out, beginning with the production ending later this summer at St. Thomas, and it's mostly the basis for the year-to-year comparison.

Ken Czubay

Yes, Chris, this is Ken. And I would add, as I mentioned, ZNX, [ph] they've been very retail driven products. And their rate of increase increased far more than the total Lincoln and far more than the total Ford Motor Company. So it's a very good story with ZNX.[ph]

Christopher Ceraso - Crédit Suisse AG

I have a question about the EcoBoost and the F-150. Since you've rolled that out, have you noticed a change in the conquest rate or the loyalty rate on pickup trucks, which tends to be pretty high? I guess in other words, are you seeing more converts coming in from Chrysler and GM pickups, now that you've got the different powertrain option?

George Pipas

Ken, you've projected.

Ken Czubay

Yes, sure. Chris, our dealers are telling us that not only are our current owners thrilled with the delivery of the power and the fuel economy, and that's a big deal to get historically V8-oriented customer into a V6. But as the word-of-mouth is getting out on delivering both capability and the fuel economy, we're seeing people come into the showroom from competitive brands that we've never seen before. The truck business is very loyal, and I would say the EcoBoost is breaking through that loyalty throughout the industry. It's working on the cars. We've talked about the EcoBoost on cars, hybrids on MKZs and Fusions. We're seeing more and more conquest, and it's working on trucks.

Christopher Ceraso - Crédit Suisse AG

Do you have any numbers behind that, Ken, like specifically?

George Pipas

I'll tell you what, could I leave you behind? Otherwise, we're not going to several others in the audience. But we could follow up later, okay?

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

John Murphy - BofA Merrill Lynch

First question just on the cadence of SAAR through the remainder of the year. I mean obviously given your outlook, you're expecting an improvement through the rest of the year. Just curious, do you expect that improvement to come in September or October as the restocking comes, and which month it is? And then also we will you expect the exit rate the SAAR to be full year. Just curious if it's really back-end loaded and the run rate going into next year might be much better than what we're looking at right now based on your...

George Pipas

No, I think as it relates to next year, we're not ready to discuss 2012 sales. And we wouldn't want people to draw conclusions from the exit rate because probably the exit rate is going to contain some amount of buyers that have postponed purchases during -- while shortages of fuel-efficient vehicles where available. I would just say this, that the industry did a little bit better. I mean the sales rate was better than we expected, particularly given the plethora of negative news headlines during the course of the month. And obviously, it did take a toll on consumer sentiment. But the auto sales picture was a different story. We said last quarter or last month, and I don't think we've changed our position really since then. And that is that by late summer, we would expect the sales rates to return to something like what we were seeing in the earlier part of the year. And then, as we get into the fourth quarter, I think, it's best probably at this point just to wait and see how the economic picture and the employment picture develops over the next few months, look for the resolution and the debate and on the debt ceiling, and we'll take it from there.

John Murphy - BofA Merrill Lynch

And just a second question on the Ranger. It had particular strength in the month. I'm just wondering are we going for the sell-down of the Ranger? And when does that model stop? And then, will you be able to get the 6,000 or so run rate monthly customers into F-150 because I think that's part of the plan. Just trying to understand what's going on with the change.

George Pipas

Sure. I think it's kind of interesting. I think on products like the Ranger, what we're seeing is that word's getting around that we are ending production at the end of the year. And people, whether it's individuals or whether it's businesses, are getting word of that and people are going to -- people who want to replace the Ranger with the Ranger are going to be doing so between now and at the end of the year. Yes, we are in the run-out. We know what our production is going to be for the rest of the year, and we do believe that the F-150 with its improved fuel economy, combined with its capability too, is going to be a source where a lot of Ranger buyers will at least consider going.

John Murphy - BofA Merrill Lynch

Maybe consider a special edition Ranger collector's edition at the end there.

George Pipas

I will be waiting in line for that one.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Rod Lache would Deutsche Bank.

Patrick Nolan - Deutsche Bank AG

I'm Nolan, Pat on from Rod. George, I just have a couple of questions for you on the pickup truck market. It seems like it was up trucks drop sequentially both for you and your other competitors that recorded sales. What do you see is driving this pickup? Is it construction? Is it ag? Is it just general seasonality? How do you think about pickup truck demand going forward?

George Pipas

I don't think there's any change in the sectors, Pat, I think what we're seeing now in June and July because we get about 49,000 in June. We put 2 pretty good months back to back, following a little bit of a dip in April and May. And just like in previous periods where gas prices escalated, pickup truck buyers sat on the sidelines to see what was next. And now the trend is fuel prices aren't radically lower than they were 3 or 4 months ago, but at least, the trend in people's minds is on a downward trend. And some of those people that had probably already replaced -- put off replacing trucks are now coming back into the market to do so, and we see the market running probably about the same or a little bit ahead of last year on a full year basis.

Ken Czubay

I would add to that, George, is our dealers are telling us that there's some pent-up demand from the commercial side. And the commercial buyers are making the choice that now is the time and word's the best value proposition. And as the word gets out, like I mentioned earlier in the call, in the V6s in particular the EcoBoost, they're coming in. We did 50,000, which is -- that's a good mark for us in average last 2 months. We were right around 50,000 vehicles. It's being driven by small commercial purchasers. So we're quite pleased by what we have to offer in the marketplace and the demand.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Patrick Archambault with Goldman Sachs.

Patrick Archambault - Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Yes, just one question on the pace of sales of the Focus and the Taurus. Both of those were down this month. And I guess year-to-date, Focus had been up, but Taurus has been down year-to-date. Can you give us a sense is that also primarily inventory constraints or the difficulty of a comp or perhaps both? Just wanted to get a little more on that.

George Pipas

Well, Patrick, as it relates to the Taurus, the full size or the large sedan, large full-size sedan, that market has been declining for several years, and you've seen the Taurus. The Taurus is doing well on that category, but it is a category that's declining. On the Focus side of the business, we warned last month heading into July that demand for the product had really driven inventories much lower. And I want to just give you one data point so you understand what I mean. And I don't want to deal on specific thousands of units. But basically, at our dealers right now, we have about 25% of the Focus inventories that we did a year ago. Frankly, the fact that sales were down only 3% with inventories being about 25% the level they were a year ago in July, it's really a test to how fast the car is spinning. That with a low level of inventory, we can generate a pretty good level of sales. But there's no question that we're being pinched right now today by tight inventories. Ken?

Ken Czubay

The other part of that is, I talked about the Focus sales, just they're literally being sold off the truck as they arrive at the dealerships. The other part of that story is the incredible demand for Explorer. And as you may know, we build Explorer and Taurus at the same plant, and we doubled -- so it's been out there for a while. But month-over-month, we double the Explorer sales, so incredibly high demand for there. We're balancing out production, so that was -- we try to match the build to the demand in the marketplace, and Explorer is also red hot. We're flat out at a Focus plant, and we're doing all we can. We're just so fortunate to have the vehicle an incredibly high demand.

George Pipas

And Patrick, incidentally, I know the Focus or the Fiesta is up sharply against an introductory period last year. But the same is pretty much true of the Fiesta in terms of where the inventory situation is, the spring demand resulting from the high fuel prices and this great new car. If you look at the absolute level of Fiesta sales, and we had a couple of months in March and April when we were running around 10,000. I can assure you the car has not cooled off. But those -- that fast pace of sales in March, April, really put the Focus and -- or Fiesta in about the same spot even though the year-to-year is different.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Himanshu Patel with JP Morgan.

Himanshu Patel - JP Morgan Chase & Co

I'm sorry if you covered this earlier. Can you talk a little bit about just sequential trending on incentives for Ford and the industry? And also any comments on exit rate of sales in the month?

George Pipas

As far as the exit rate goes, it was a pretty strong close. And as I said especially considering -- it's a little bit like a -- I mean, we had a pretty strong July 4 as expected, a lot of promotional activity, sort of softened in the middle of the month and despite the headline, picked up at the end of the month. Now on incentives, we've got the -- I think, I mentioned right in my opening comments that the industry was up a couple of $100 per unit. On average, a lot of that was concentrated in the utilities segments in the industry. Ford was up about half sequentially. We were up about $100 going from June to July.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Brian Johnson with Barclays Capital.

Brian Johnson - Barclays Capital

I want to talk a little bit about the back end. You've talked about the SAAR potentially picking up, as Japanese come back in the market with potentially inventory incentives and advertising. What do you think the implications are for Ford in terms of market share year-over-year sales and actual unit sales? That increase are going to translate into an increased sales rate for Ford?

George Pipas

Well, I don't think -- I mean, in terms of the absolute level of sales, I think that it helps everybody to get everybody engaged in the market again, Brian. Because when people come into dealerships, some do and some don't, but many buyers cross shop and go to the website -- any number of websites that are available to consumers and dealer websites and company websites to shop for vehicles. So I think from a sales standpoint, it helps. The only share guidance that I'd want to provide to you is that which we've already provided just last Tuesday, and that is that we are targeting a total and retail market share that's equal/improved compared with a year ago. And on a year-to-date basis, we're basically on target, on plan.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Peter Nesvold with Jefferies.

H. Nesvold - Jefferies & Company, Inc.

George, did you say what ATPs were year-over-year in the month?

George Pipas

Year-over-year, we've had average transaction prices up about $500. And average transaction prices for Ford year-over-year are about double that.

H. Nesvold - Jefferies & Company, Inc.

So on a percent basis, were you up in the month?

George Pipas

I didn't actually calculate it. I'd have to -- I'm not that quick. I'm going to have to get back to you on what the percentage is.

H. Nesvold - Jefferies & Company, Inc.

Only one other quick follow-up on that. Some of the headlines running across the tape right now is admin. So are we talking about Nissan, it's up 20% sequentially; Toyota, 25%. I mean, is just because we're coming up at a slow -- low base that these numbers look so high? Or is this sort of the canary in a coal mine that when production really is back to full force for September, October, November, we have a bit of a pricing war ahead of us?

George Pipas

No, I think many of these companies, Peter, have indicated to their dealers and customers that -- I know this is true for Honda that if you buy a car today, you may not find the one in the lot that you're looking for, but we'll give you the deal that's out there. So I think it's more a question of them being back up to a level that was sort of precrisis level. And goodness gracious, given the inventory situation and the way people running their business now, I mean, I know we haven't changed the way we're running our business over this past several years. That kind of discipline will lead to a situation where if you're aligned with consumer demand, you ought to be okay from a pricing standpoint. And if you don't, if you're not aligned with demand, it could be a problem. But I think most people are behaving rationally.

Ken Czubay

And I would add to that at Ford we're finding, not only our own owners, and people are coming who haven't been here before. It's a total value proposition. It's the fuel economy that we're offering. It's the dependability. I mean, it's a whole new story, and we're right on everything from small cars to, like we've talked about, new powertrains, crossovers and pickup trucks. So people are coming in for the value proposition at Ford.

George Pipas

Okay, this is great. To get to so many people, let's turn to the media in the audience and take some questions from that side.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of DeeAnn Durbin with the Associated Press.

DeeAnn Durbin

George, I'm wondering how close we are at this point to having what you would consider to be a normal market? Are we still looking at September or October when inventories are fully replenished? Or even later, even earlier?

George Pipas

Yes, late summer or early fall.

DeeAnn Durbin

So that's still what we're talking about?

George Pipas

Yes, I think, by the time -- and speaking broadly, I'm trying to get up -- trying to sweep everybody into that. I mean, most of the manufacturers now are operating at pretty normal levels. We have our -- some places where we're short today. Obviously, the J3 are recovering. But our feeling is that you get into September and October. And by that time, inventories are pretty much at a normal level.

DeeAnn Durbin

And also, when do you expect Focus production to actually match demand? Because obviously, it's not meeting the demand that's out there right now.

George Pipas

No, you're right. Right now, it's not meeting the demand. You know what, it's sort of like there's 3 ways to do it, isn't there? I mean, you can produce way more than demand, and you can be exactly on and you can be short. I don't know. There are 3 problems. I don't know, Ken.

Ken Czubay

Right now, I mean, consumers are telling us the demand is incredible on that new car. And I clearly want the point of view that we want to demand to be very, very high on that. I mean, we are at full out at the Focus plant, and we're shipping everything we can to meet the consumer demand. But the consumers are telling us they need 2 more than we can produce, or 3 more. So we're flat out to build them all, but the demand is just unprecedented.

DeeAnn Durbin

You can add a shift.

George Pipas

We have no production announcements today or tomorrow for that matter. I don't think so, okay? All right.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Alisa Priddle with Detroit News.

Alisa Priddle

Two things. Just following up on the inventory question. Are there any concerns that sort of as we head into negotiations that inventory is going to be an issue that maybe you might not have a little bit of a sort of build-up in that stake?

George Pipas

No, the answer is no. We're going to run our business like we always run our business, trying to match production with demand.

Alisa Priddle

So no more of the old days where you kind of build up a backlog?

George Pipas

Well, it's been a while since we ran our business that way. So even though I've been with the company for 35 years, it's hard for me to remember a time when we did that, I suppose maybe in the '70s or '60s. But the success that we've achieved for all of our employees and all of our dealers and all of our suppliers has been based on running the business consistently and a disciplined approach. That's really been a big key to our success, as well as the products, of course, and there's no reason to change now.

Alisa Priddle

And the other thing is just if you can elaborate a bit on the effect of the debt ceiling, sort of how much that debate you think really did damp down consumer appetites leading up till now? And if you think that by solving it that we're going to see a real spring-back with pent-up demand?

George Pipas

Jenny, why do you -- do you want to comment on that?

Jenny Lin

Yes, of course, that if you look at the University of Michigan consumer sentiment, it clearly indicates that is what consumer worry about. In the past few months, it had been the gas price, and now that is kind of fading into the backlog. But you can see this month, the primary focus was -- has been on the uncertainty that generated by the debt ceiling debate. So we hope that with this being passed to the Congress and the President has signed into that, we hope that we will look forward to some kind of recovery in the consumer sentiment.

Alisa Priddle

Do you think it will be a real spring-back or a more gradual?

Jenny Lin

We don't know. We hope that to be -- we view it with confidence, which is very important to retail sales going forward.

Alisa Priddle

Do you feel like you have -- there's a lot of pent-up demand that all of these...

Jenny Lin

Yes, the pent-up demand is there. As we kept saying that July sale is, of course, the testimony to that result of the tight supply conditions that actually now has not improved. Through July, we see the demand coming back that is supporting the sales in the industry.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Jamie LaReau with Automotive News.

Jamie LaReau - Automotive News

I just want to know how much did the part shortage in the Saleen plant impact Focus production?

George Pipas

I don't think we've said.

Jamie LaReau - Automotive News

Can you say now?

George Pipas

No.

Jamie LaReau - Automotive News

Did it have a -- did it play into any of these -- into the decline of sales and a tight inventory?

George Pipas

It's the demand for the product that's played into the tight -- it's been the biggest factor playing into the tight inventory. And look at -- that's why I mentioned, that's why I took the time actually, Jamie, to mention the Fiesta in the same breadth when I was talking about tight inventories. I know, get beyond the year-to-year increase on the Fiesta because last July, we were in the middle of launching the product. So the percentage increase on the Fiesta is outsized by virtue of the base that we're comparing it against. But there's been no launch. I mean, we're 12 months past the launch of the Fiesta, 12 months past the launch of the Fiesta, and I've got less than 20 days supply of the product. And so that illustrates how the demand for Ford's new small cars have played into the situation that our inventory is in right now. And now we're gone, and we hope to be able to supply our dealers with more Fiestas and Focuses in the coming weeks.

Jamie LaReau - Automotive News

So the production was not slowed down at all then by a part shortage?

George Pipas

No.

Jamie LaReau - Automotive News

It was not?

George Pipas

No.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of David Welch with Bloomberg.

David Welch - BusinessWeek

First off on trucks, volumes look pretty stable versus June. But for both Chevy and Ford down versus last year, what is going on in the full-size pickup market, and what do you see for the rest of the year? Do you see a picking up as GM does?

George Pipas

Well, David, here's what I think. I don't think you should focus on the month of July, or hang your head in the month of July. I think if you look at the year-to-date columns, you'll see that last year, pickups were up over the base. In fact, last year pickups outperformed the industry as the commercial businesses -- as commercial activity picked up. No pun intended, by the way. And if you look at the entire 7 months this year, you see that the F-Series pick ups, and the segment as well is pretty much keeping pace with the industry. So I think there's really nothing wrong with full-size pickup sales at this point. I certainly think that they will be higher if -- I've stopped using the word when, but if we start to see a rebound in the housing market because this segment is so closely tied to that sector. And last I heard, the housing market was still on a wounded knee.

Ken Czubay

And David, this is Ken. I mean, I would add that at slightly below 50,000 pickup trucks, that's a good month for us. And then in view of the drama over the last weekend, et cetera, I mean, Econoline was about the same as last year, Transit Connect almost exactly the same as last year, so there hasn't been any sequential weakening in that. We're pretty happy. We always want to sell more, but 50,000 pickup trucks, like I'd mentioned a couple of times, in view of shortages on EcoBoost and things like that, I mean we're pretty pleased with that number.

David Welch - BusinessWeek

What's your outlook for the month on pickup or -- I'm sorry, for the rest of the year on pickups?

George Pipas

Pickup trucks have been running steady with the industry this year. After outperforming last year, they've been running steady. So I think you'd expect to see a share of the total industry that's comparable.

David Welch - BusinessWeek

Okay, and there were 2 numbers I wanted to clarify with you guys. It was $12.2 million with the SAAR. Is that just for light?

George Pipas

Well, first of all, that includes medium and heavy. But second of all, I'd like to put a pin in $12.2 million because before too very long, auto data will have consolidated all the manufacturer sales. And we're coming to you at 1 o'clock, and it's our best guess but that's what it is right now. It's the best guess.

David Welch - BusinessWeek

Got you. And also the ATPs, there was a 500 number and then double that there, and there was a 500 industry and 1,000 for Ford.

George Pipas

The Ford increase year-over-year in transaction prices was about double.

David Welch - BusinessWeek

So 2,000 about basically?

George Pipas

Yes. Okay. Well, David, you've closed the call for us, and I want to thank you for participating and others as well. And I look forward to talking to you in the coming days, folks. Have a good August 2. Bye for now.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.

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