Intuit's Follow-On Earnings Moves Tend to Favor Longs

Aug.18.11 | About: Intuit Inc. (INTU)

Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU) is expected to report its Q4 results after the bell tonight, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are anticipating break-even results on revenue of $583 million.

INTU gives a nod toward a widening pattern between the sessions. The stock exhibited more aggressive next-day regular-session closing levels in 18 of its last 30 earnings events. In the near term, the stock has widened in three of four quarters over the past year.

Looking deeper into the data, the stock has followed earnings with gains in 11 quarters, extending that move eight times, or 73% of the time. Of its 19 declines, shares extended that move 10 times, or 53% of the time.

On May 19, 2011, the stock fell 3% in after-hours trading following a report showing a Q3 beat but mixed guidance. Shares dropped a thinner 1.6% the next day.

On Feb. 17, 2011, INTU advanced 2.5% in night trade after beating Q2 earnings estimates and setting in-line guidance. The stock surged higher the following day, closing the Feb. 18 regular session up 7.2%.

On Nov. 18, 2010, the stock fell 4% after meeting with its loss and beating with revenue but setting mixed guidance. Shares dropped a steeper 6.7% the next day.

On Aug. 19, 2010, the stock gained 5.8% in extended-hours trading after a beat with a loss and guidance mostly above the Street view. Shares jumped 15% during the following session's action.

On May 20, 2010, the stock eased 0.7% despite a Q3 beat and raised guidance. Shares rose 3.7% the next day.

On Feb. 18, 2010, the stock gained 5.5% during evening trading after a Q2 beat. Shares rose 7.8% the next day.

On Nov. 19, 2009, INTU declined 2.1% in after-hours trade after beating on Q1 and setting Q2 guidance mostly below the Street view. The stock cut its downside slightly the following day, ending down 2% on Nov. 20.

On Aug. 20, 2009, the stock fell 2.9% after a Q4 beat but mixed guidance. Shares fell a deeper 7.2% the next day.

On May 20, 2009, INTU advanced 3% in after-hours trade after beating Q3 earnings expectations and setting guidance that straddled the Street view. The stock charged higher in the May 21 regular session, closing up 8.1%.

On Feb. 19, 2009, INTU gained 6.3% in evening trade after topping earnings estimates. The stock saw a more robust upside in the Feb. 20 regular session, ending up 12.8%.

On Nov. 19, 2008, the stock managed a slim 0.9% gain in the evening hours after the company beat loss estimates and set mixed guidance. The stock finished up just 0.3% the next day.

On Aug. 21, 2008, the stock fell 1.6% despite a Q4 revenue beat and guidance that was mostly above the Street view. The stock rebounded to gain 3.7% the next day.

On May 20, 2008, the stock gained 6.2% during evening trading after reporting ahead of the Street with Q3 results and setting a share buyback. The gain was trimmed nearly in half, to 3.4% the next day.

On Feb. 21, 2008, the stock fell 4.1% during evening trading after the company missed with Q2 earnings and guides below the Street. Shares fell 9.2% the next day.

On Nov. 15, 2007, INTU advanced 1.5% in after-hours trade after topping Q1 estimates and guiding its Q2 EPS higher than the Street consensus. The stock headed higher in the Nov. 16 regular session, closing the day up 3.4%.

On Aug. 22, 2007, the stock fell 2.9% in the evening hours despite reporting a smaller-than-expected loss on stronger revenue. Shares shed 3.2% the next day.

On May 17, 2007, INTU jumped 9.7% after beating Q3 estimates and raising guidance. Shares rallied further the next day to end up 13.8%.

On Feb. 22, 2007, INTU eased 1.5% in night trade despite topping Q2 estimates. It offered mixed guidance. The shares, though, recovered the next day to end the regular session up 1.3%.

On November 16, 2006, INTU slipped 1.5% despite beating Q1 expectations and reaffirming its guidance. Shares fell further the next day, closing the regular session down 6.7%.

On Aug. 22, 2006, INTU edged up 0.1% in after-hours action after the company beat on Q4 and guided its sales above the Street view. It lost this slim gain the next day, closing the Aug. 23 regular session down 1.2%

On May 17, 2006, shares fell 0.9% in the after hours after the company beat with Q3 results and set Q4 guidance mostly in line with Wall Street's view. The stock bounced back to gain 1.9% the next day.

On Feb. 16, 2006, shares fell 3.5% in the night hours after the company guides for Q3 below the Street. The loss fattened to 10.1% the next day.

On November 16, 2005, INTU edged up 0.6% in evening trade after topping Q1 expectations and approving a stock buyback program of up to $500 million. Shares extended their gains the next day, advancing 7.7% in the regular session.

On Aug. 24, 2005, INTU slipped 1.8% after hours after posting a narrower-than-expected Q4 loss but topping revenue estimates, and guiding its Q1 loss wider than the Street view. It widened its loss in the Aug. 25 regular session, closing down 5.5%.

On May 18, 2005, INTU sank 2.2% after hours after posting better-than-expected revenue and in-line EPS and guiding Q4 below the Street. It found somewhat more support in the May 19 regular session, closing down only 1.6%.

On Feb. 17, 2005 INTU beat expectations and raised its full year outlook. The stock failed to inspire buyers and ended the after-hours session down 0.8%. It managed to generate upside momentum the next day, rising 2% by the Feb. 18 closing bell.

INTU beat Q1 expectations the night of Nov. 17, 2004 and set its Q2 guidance below the Street view and FY05 outlook in line. The stock edged down 0.1% in after-hours trade, and added slightly to its declines in next-day trade, ending down a mere 0.2%.

The stock did not inspire a wider next-day move following its Aug. 18, 2004 after-hours earnings event. It dropped 1% in after-hours trade following better-than-expected results and revenue guidance below Street estimates. The stock cut its declines the next day and closed the regular session up 3.5%.

On May 19, 2004 INTU lost 8.8% in evening trade after beating estimates and guiding lower. It tumbled 10.5% by the May 20 closing bell.

On Feb. 18, 2004 INTU dipped 4.9% in after-hours trade after beating estimates and setting its outlook below expectations. It added to its downside the next day, ending bell-to-bell trade down 8%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.