The 7 Worst-Performing Big Tech Stocks Of 2011

by: Rash Menaria

Following is a list of the seven worst-performing large cap technology stocks, based on year-to date returns:




YTD Returns


Hewlett-Packard Company

Diversified Computer Systems



Infosys Technologies Limited

Technical & System Software



Juniper Networks, Inc.

Networking & Communication Devices



Nokia Corporation

Communication Equipment



NetApp, Inc.

Data Storage Devices



Research In Motion Limited

Diversified Communication Services



Wipro Ltd.

Information Technology Services


Two Indian IT companies -- Infosys and Wipro -- are featured in above list. I have been bearish on the Indian IT space since March, when I wrote an article suggesting Accenture (NYSE:ACN) will do better than Indian offshoring companies, citing the high P/E of Indian offshoring companies and low P/E of Accenture. Since then Infosys and Wipro shares are down 27% and 32% respectively, vs. the Naqdaq's 7% drop. Accenture shares have outperformed and are down only 3%.

I still have the same concern about Indian IT companies: They are no longer a growth play, and the Industry is in late stage of maturity. Although the P/E multiples have come down quite a bit since March and these companies are now trading at 15-16x EPS, I will still avoid these companies. With Global MNC setting their own captives in India, rising wages and increasing attrition, the golden age of Indian offshoring companies seems to be behind us.

Nokia is another stock I have been bearish on since March. My main concern was the NOK-WP7 transition-related issues, which may cause significant market share losses as customers become increasingly wary of buying legacy symbian phones. The stock is down 22% since March, and I would like to change my opinion now. The stock has rallied 33% from its 52-week lows in last month alone. With the launch of NOK-WP7 nearing, I think the rally can continue in the near term. The eventual fate for the stock will depend on the customer adoption of NOK-WP7 phones; however I anticipate investor expectations to continue building until the time of the launch.

Research in Motion is another stock that has rallied quite a bit in the last month. The stock price has seen a jump of 50% from its 52-week low of $21.60. However, I don’t think this rally is sustainable. After Google’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) acquisition of Motorola (NYSE:MMI), Research in Motion has now become an orphan stock, and there are very low chances of its acquisition. In my opinion, the three major players that will dominate the smart phone ecosystem going forward are Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), the Nokia-Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) combination and the Google-Motorola combination. I do understand that RIMM is trading at a very low valuation, but continued market share losses are a serious concern for the company. Unless there are any signs of market share stabilization, I don’t think any rally in RIMM’s stock can be sustained.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.