Estimated S&P 500 Q3 Earnings Growth Drifts Lower

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Includes: FXD, SPY, XLF, XLK, XLU
by: Bespoke Investment Group

Below we highlight the change in the estimated year/year (y/y) earnings growth for the third quarter for the S&P 500 as the quarter has progressed. As shown, earnings growth expectations for the index have steadily declined throughout the quarter, starting at 17.5% (y/y) and dropping down to 13.7% (y/y) as of today. With the third quarter earnings season just a couple weeks away, investors are hoping that expectations have fallen too far too fast.

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Below we break down y/y Q3 earnings growth estimates by sector. For each sector, we show its growth estimate on a weekly basis since the start of the quarter. The color coding from green (higher) to red (lower) clearly shows the drop in growth estimates that we have seen for pretty much all sectors. The only sector that has seen its Q3 growth estimate increase since the start of the quarter has been Utilities. Technology and Consumer Discretionary have also held up pretty well. The Financial and Industrial sectors have seen the biggest drops in estimates, which isn't surprising given that they've been the worst performing sectors recently as well.

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