Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday September 19.
Apple (AAPL), Research in Motion (RIMM), Hewlett Packard (HPQ), Deckers (DECK), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Chipotle (CMG), Amazon (AMZN), Ralph Lauren (RL), VFCorp (VFC), Whole Foods (WFM), Goodrich (GR), United Technologies (UTX) Kraft (KFT), General Mills (GIS)
The Dow closed down only 108 points after it started Monday morning down 250. How was a major decline averted? Cramer considered three possibilities:
1. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's remarks that Europe will not see a Lehman-like crisis are trusted and investors feel confident about stocks.
2. The upcoming Fed meeting, which often signals a rise in stocks, is keeping the bears away.
3. The United States of Apple (AAPL). The stock started rising early in the morning and continued to climb until it took out its former highs and carried other growth stocks with it; Deckers (DECK), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Chipotle (CMG), VFCorp (VFC), Amazon (AMZN), Ralph Lauren (RL) and Whole Foods (WFM). The cause of Apple's breakout is the budding realization that Apple's earnings estimates are too low. Analysts' predictions range from $32-$37 for the company's earnings per share for 2012. Given the fact that the iPad is fast becoming the only gadget of its kind in town, is being adopted like wildfire by businesses and that Apple is introducing a new iPhone, the stock is priced too low. Add to this the fact that Apple's competitors, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Research in Motion (RIMM) are starting to seem like relics of a former era. Cramer thinks Apple will earn $45 a share for 2012, which makes current estimates seem ridiculously low.
Cramer took some calls:
General Mills (GIS) is a good company that is getting better and provides security. Kraft (KFT) is a bad company that is becoming good, especially since it is splitting up. For more upside, Cramer would buy Kraft. For investors who prefer not to lose sleep, GIS is the buy.
A caller was concerned about Brazilian stocks, since a Brazilian ETF comprises 3% of his portfolio. Cramer said there was no reason to worry.
With uncertainties in Europe and the global economy, it is a good time to find stocks that pay investors to wait, have steady growth and large dividends. Cramer discussed International Paper (IP), currently yielding 3.85%. The company is the country's leading producer of container board. While paper is one of the most cyclical industries out there, consolidation in the space means less competition, less supply and more control over pricing. International Paper is not waiting for the economy to improve, but is already seeing consistent earnings when the industry is usually in decline. International Paper has made some smart acquisitions, including Weyerhaeuser's (WY) container board business, which became accretive to earnings just 15 months after the deal closed. IP's proposed takeover of Temple-Inland (TIN) should mean a similar upside for the company. IP is in control of its inventory, and while the company is 80% levered to the U.S., sales are rising in Russia and China. The company beat earnings by 13 cents and currently trades at an "absurdly" low 8.4 times earnings. Cramer would wait for the stock to fall to $26, when the yield will rise to 4% before buying. For those who want to start buying IP, he would buy on scale on the way down.
The tech sector is a buy on seasonality, since it tends to be on its way back up in September, and Cramer would pay special attention to Juniper (JNPR). The stock has received an over 50% haircut since March, and analysts have cut numbers as low as they can go. While the chart shows 3 more points of downside for Juniper, it isn't always possible to hit the exact bottom, and 3 points of downside and 10 points of upside is a good situation.
The company blew its second quarter in July, underperformed on nearly every metric and cut guidance for the full year. Expectations were already low going into earnings, but Juniper performed even worse than expected. The main reason to buy Juniper is simply that it cannot go down much lower and seems to be bottoming. Its infrastructure business, comprising 75% of revenues is growing by 10% and service providers are growing 8%. The infrastructure business has high barriers to entry, and Juniper is introducing new products in early 2012. The multiple at 10 is half its historic level of 20 and it has a 16.9% growth rate. If the company reaches its targets of 20% sales growth and a 25% increase in operating margins, the stock should go through the roof. However, few expect the company to do that well. If Juniper's next quarter is even in-line, the stock should rise significantly. Cramer would buy Juniper now and more on the way down.
Cramer took some calls:
Xerox (XRX) is not a buy on a possible takeover because the company doesn't have strong fundamentals.
Nokia (NOK) has one point of upside and one point of downside, and is a flatliner. Against Apple, it doesn't stand a chance.
CEO Interview: Chris Viehbacher, Sanofi-Aventis (SNY)
Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) is one of the fastest-growing pharmas, but its stock fell 4% on worries about the euro. The company yields a generous 5.3%, but its stock trades just above its 52 week low. Since drug companies tend to perform well in a recession, SNY should excel in spite of European economic woes. The company had a bullish analyst day during which it discussed the success of the Genzyme acquisition and its investment in research and development.
Chris Viehbacher discussed the performance of the company, which transcends its stock price. The company is raising its dividend. When facing the issue of a patent cliff, Viehbacher prefers the strategy of "telling it like it is," and SNY has undertaken a "massive amount of change," to face challenges; Genzyme is providing stronger than expected growth. SNY has a hugely popular treatment for Type 2 diabetes, a condition that affects 350-400 million Americans. There are only 2 companies sharing this space. SNY also has an MS treatment that works like a vaccine, and 60% of patients report no relapse after treatment. The company is insulated from government budget cuts, since only 2/3 of the business is based on private funds. Cramer says Sanofi-Aventis is the lowest risk, highest growth pharma.
With concerns whether Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner accomplished enough on his European visit, growing fears of stagflation and an indication that inflation might continue in China, it is still time to buy gold. Even though gold was down on Monday, the story is still strong, and the decline is a buying opportunity. Cramer has been recommending SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) consistently, but now it is time once again to buy the miners. Newmont Mining (NEM) is increasing its dividend and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) is making smart acquisitions. Randgold's (GOLD) mines in Africa and Goldcorp's (GG) mine in Mexico should see upsides. Barrick Gold (ABX) is a steady, safe gold miner. Cramer believes gold should comprise a minimum of 10% of any portfolio, with 20% as an ideal level.
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