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As part of our process, we perform a rigorous discounted cash-flow methodology that dives into the true intrinsic worth of companies. In DuPont's (NYSE:DD) case, we think the firm is worth north of $60 per share, nearly 50% higher than where it is currently trading. Our full reports on DuPont and hundreds of other companies are available on our website.
We think a comprehensive analysis of a firm's discounted cash-flow valuation, relative valuation versus industry peers, as well as an assessment of technical and momentum indicators is the best way to identify the most attractive stocks at the best time to buy. This process culminates in what we call our Valuentum Buying Index (VBI), which ranks stocks on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best.
If a company is undervalued both on a DCF and on a relative valuation basis and is showing improvement in technical and momentum indicators, it scores high on our scale. We're strongly considering adding DuPont to the portfolio in our Best Ideas Newsletter, but are waiting for improvement in the firm's VBI score first (it is currently a 3).

Our Report on DuPont

click to enlarge images



Investment Considerations

For every company in our coverage universe, we rate them on 13 unique measures. To get started, we show DuPont's below:



Investement Highlights

DuPont scores fairly well on our business quality matrix. The firm has put up solid economic returns for shareholders during the past few years with relatively low volatility in its operating results. Return on invested capital (excluding goodwill) has averaged 13% during the past three years.

The firm's second-quarter results speak to this underlying strength, with revenue and earnings expanding roughly 20%, respectively. We like firms with strong pricing expansion, and DuPont's performance speaks to that as well -- local pricing was up 10%+ in its most recent quarter.

DuPont has a good combination of strong free cash flow generation and manageable financial leverage. We expect the firm's free cash flow margin to average about 7.1% in coming years. Total debt-to-EBITDA was 2.3 last year, while debt-to-book capitalization stood at 52.7%.

The firm's share price performance has been roughly in line with that of the market during the past quarter. We'd expect the firm's stock price to converge to our fair value estimate within the next three years, if our forecasts prove accurate.

The firm sports a very nice dividend yield of 3.9%. We expect the firm to pay out about half of next year's earnings to shareholders as dividends.



Economic Profit Analysis

The best measure of a firm's ability to create value for shareholders is expressed by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) with its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The gap or difference between ROIC and WACC is called the firm's economic profit spread. DuPont's 3-year historical return on invested capital (without goodwill) is 13%, which is above the estimate of its cost of capital of 9.1%. As such, we assign the firm a ValueCreation™ rating of GOOD. In the chart below, we show the probable path of ROIC in the years ahead based on the estimated volatility of key drivers behind the measure. The solid grey line reflects the most likely outcome, in our opinion, and represents the scenario that results in our fair value estimate.



Cash Flow Analysis


Valuation Analysis

We think DuPont is worth $63 per share, which represents a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 19.2 times last year's earnings and an implied EV/EBITDA multiple of about 14 times last year's EBITDA. Our model reflects a compound annual revenue growth rate of 10.5% during the next five years, a pace that is higher than the firm's 3-year historical compound annual growth rate of 3.7%.

Our model reflects a 5-year projected average operating margin of 10.9%, which is above DuPont's trailing 3-year average. Beyond year 5, our valuation model assumes free cash flow will grow at an annual rate of 3.3% for the next 15 years and 3% in perpetuity. We employ a 9.1% weighted average cost of capital to discount future free cash flows.







Margin of Safety Analysis

Our discounted cash flow process values each firm on the basis of the present value of all future free cash flows. Although we estimate the firm's fair value at about $63 per share, every company has a range of probable fair values that's created by the uncertainty of key valuation drivers (like future revenue or earnings, for example). After all, if the future was known with certainty, we wouldn't see much volatility in the markets as stocks would trade precisely at their known fair values. Our ValueRisk™ rating sets the margin of safety or the fair value range we assign to each stock.

In the graph below, we show this probable range of fair values for DuPont. We think the firm is attractive below $50 per share (the green line), but quite expensive above $76 per share (the red line). The prices that fall along the yellow line, which includes our fair value estimate, represent a reasonable valuation for the firm, in our opinion.






Future Path of Fair Value

We estimate DuPont's fair value at this point in time to be about $63 per share. As time passes, however, companies generate cash flow and pay out cash to shareholders in the form of dividends. The chart below compares the firm's current share price with the path of DuPont's expected equity value per share over the next three years, assuming our long-term projections prove accurate. The range between the resulting downside fair value and upside fair value in Year 3 represents our best estimate of the value of the firm's shares three years hence.
This range of potential outcomes is also subject to change over time, should our views on the firm's future cash flow potential change. The expected fair value of $76 per share in Year 3 represents our existing fair value per share of $63 increased at an annual rate of the firm's cost of equity less its dividend yield. The upside and downside ranges are derived in the same way, but from the upper and lower bounds of our fair value estimate range.



Pro Forma Financial Statements





Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Source: DuPont's Shares Are Trading At Bargain Basement Levels