John Paulson of Paulson & Co is one of America's most notorious hedge fund managers. He gained fame after betting against subprime mortgages and personally making over $5 billiion in 2010. However 2011 has not been kind to Paulson with both of his hedge funds down more than 20% through August.
Investors are reportedly anticipating Paulson's clients withdrawing from his funds, which would force Paulson & Co to sell holdings in order to meet withdrawal requests. Selling pressure by Paulson could adversely affect the share price of the underlying holdings, so investors should take of his largest positions.
Paulson did quite well by making an early investment in Gold via (GLD), but as we have seen in recent weeks GLD has been hit hard. Given that it is his largest holding and most likely one of his more profitable long-term positions, it is a logical sell candidate to meet any potential liquidity demands in his two hedge funds. While I think that gold mining stocks still offer some attractive opportunities versus the underlying price of gold, we may see lower gold prices in the short term. This would not bode well for Paulson, especially given that his second largest holding is also in the preciousl metal sector, gold miner Anglogold Ashanti (AU).
Paulson has also been hurt by his heavy exposure to financials, with a 48% exposure to the financial sector as of 6/30/11. If the European sovereign debt situation further drags down financial stocks in the coming weeks or months, this could further hurt Paulson's performance.
Using AlphaClone, I generated a list of Paulson & Co's top 50 holdings. I will be watching this closely in the coming weeks for any extra-ordinary selling pressure:
|SHARE PRICE||MARKET VALUE in thousands||SHARES HELD in thousands|
|Ticker||Last Close||6/30/11 Close||Total||% Change||Total||% Portfolio|
|Anglogold Ashanti L...||AU||41.03||41.97||1680880||-14.6%||39935||6.0%|
|Anadarko Petroleum ...||APC||67.68||76.66||1282828||-26.2%||16712||4.5%|
|Capital One Financial||COF||40.94||51.61||1090237||16.6%||21100||3.9%|
|Hartford Financial ||HIG||15.82||26.23||1068472||-9.7%||40518||3.8%|
|Wells Fargo & Co||WFC||24.45||27.94||942816||45.1%||33600||3.3%|
|Suntrust Bank Inc||STI||18.03||25.73||829065||-16.2%||32134||2.9%|
|Lubrizol Corp (...||LZ||134.97||133.91||733160||-8.8%||5460||2.6%|
|Bank of America Corp||BAC||6.16||10.95||662475||-59.8%||60445||2.3%|
|Xl Group PLC||XL||18.84||21.86||620495||-14.2%||28230||2.2%|
|MGM Resorts Int||MGM||10.27||13.21||550857||-4.4%||41700||2.0%|
|Comcast Corp Class A||CMCSA||22||25.23||514402||-48.0%||20300||1.8%|
|Life Tech Corp||LIFE||37.73||52.07||391566||New||7520||1.4%|
|Gold Field Ltd||GFI||15.35||14.47||360373||-20.8%||24700||1.3%|
|CB Richard Ellis Gr...||CBG||13.93||25.11||338985||-6.0%||13500||1.2%|
|Ralcorp Holdings Inc||RAH||76||86.58||319653||1067.8%||3692||1.1%|
|Rock-Tenn Co Class A||RKT||50.15||66.1||294401||324.5%||4438||1.0%|
|Teva Pharm Ind Inc||TEVA||36.4||47.95||201627||-9.7%||4181||0.7%|
|CNO Fnancial Grp||CNO||5.34||7.91||193439||5.3%||24455||0.7%|
|JP Morgan Chase & Co||JPM||30.47||40.69||192418||-16.5%||4700||0.7%|
|Novagold Resources Inc||NG||6.74||9.2||185673||-29.1%||20182||0.7%|
|News Corp Ltd||NWS||15.92||17.59||184080||New||10400||0.7%|
|Southern Union Co||SUG||40.65||40.15||181880||New||4530||0.6%|
|Family Dollar Stores||FDO||53.31||52.37||181595||2.4%||3455||0.6%|
|Alpha Natural Resou...||ANR||18.92||45.44||154416||-78.3%||3398||0.5%|
|Anglogold Ashanti Ltd||AU||47.7||49.15||149670||-7.3%||3000||0.5%|
|Scripps Networks Int||SNI||39.01||48.76||146640||-2.4%||3000||0.5%|
|Tenet Healthcare Corp||THC||4.03||6.24||124800||New||20000||0.4%|
|The Howard Hughs||HHC||42.64||65.04||120324||-22.4%||1850||0.4%|
|Regions Financial Cp||RF||3.43||6.18||119931||-14.6%||19344||0.4%|
|SL Green Realty Corp||SLG||60.7||82.87||116018||10.2%||1400||0.4%|
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.