Cramer's Mad Money - The 4% Rule (10/5/11)

Includes: BK, BMY, DIS, DUK, ED, ETN, FE, OUTR
by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Wednesday October 5.

4% Rule: Disney (NYSE:DIS), BNY Mellon (NYSE:BK), Coinstar (NASDAQ:CSTR)

With the stock market rising 4% in 24 hours, Cramer thinks it is time to stop worrying and to start embracing volatility. How to invest in such a wild environment? Cramer would choose a solid stock with a robust business and a good long-term story, like Disney (DIS), and when it rises 4%, sell and when it falls 4%, buy.

Cramer took some calls:

BNY Mellon (BK) has been plagued with lawsuits and is back to where it was at its bottom in 2008. "I don't like the financials. I like this even less."

Coinstar (CSTR) has no real defense against volatility and is not necessarily going to stay as an independent company. Cramer is bothered by the excessive fascination in the stock. "It is too hot right now."

Special Guest: Senator Bernard Sanders, Vermont

Senator Bernard Sanders of Vermont has been vocal on the issue of the manipulation of oil futures and how the average American is affected by it. Many citizens have difficulty paying for gas at the pump and heating bills, and yet the high price of oil is artificial, since supply has increased in the last year and demand has not increased; "What is going on is not supply and demand," the Senator said. "What is going on is excessive speculation." The Senator says the government has pledged to make reforms, but there has been no progress. "We are dealing with powerful special interest on Wall Street," he continued. "Over 80% of the oil futures market is controlled by speculators." The Senator suggested that concerned citizens write the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and demand action on this issue.

Eaton (NYSE:ETN), Brisol-Myers (NYSE:BMY), ConEdison (NYSE:ED), First Energy (NYSE:FE), Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK)

Even if one doesn't believe horror scenarios that 2008 will repeat itself, it is still useful to take a look at stocks that performed well coming out of the recession. The best-acting stocks during the last recession were accidental high-yielders, stocks whose dividends became generous as stock prices fell. Eaton (ETN) is a best of breed diversified manufacturer of products for cars, planes, hydraulics and electrics. With strong auto sales and the beginning of the aerospace cycle, Eaton is holding up well, and is further aided by the 58% increase in truck orders.

The stock has been hammered, down 7% in the last month, but now has a dividend of 3.6%. Eaton has seen a 114% gain since 2008 and has a strong balance sheet and loads of cash. CEO Sandy Cutler is a "beast when it comes to cost controls," and was able to ride out the recession because he saw the disaster coming and prepared his company ahead of time. The fact that Sandy Cutler is optimistic now when he wasn't before seems like a good sign. The company has 14% revenue growth, 20% compound annual earnings growth, but the stock was up on Wednesday. Cramer would pick up 20 out of a total 100 shares at this level and wait for $34.50 for the next 20, when the yield will be 4%.

Cramer took some calls:

Bristol-Myers (BMY) has good growth and a strong dividend. Cramer would buy it Thursday morning, but hopes for a pullback first.

ConEdison (ED) is best in show. First Energy (FE) is good, but the CEO indicated that he will wait to raise the dividend. Duke Energy (DUK) is "terrific."


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