Earnings Preview: Harley-Davidson

Oct.17.11 | About: Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)

Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) is expected to report Q3 earnings before the market open on Tuesday, October 18 with a conference call scheduled for 9:00 am ET.


Analysts are looking for EPS of 76c on revenue of $1.29B. The consensus range is 69c-81c for EPS, and revenue of $1.25B-$1.34B, according to First Call. In July, Harley-Davidson said it would likely ship 60,000-65,000 motorcycles in Q3 and raised its shipment forecast for 2011 to 228,000-235,000, an increase of 8%-12% compared to 2010 shipments. The increase in shipment guidance reflects ongoing efforts to manage supply in line with demand following strong Q2 retail sales.

Analyst Views

Wells Fargo said its Q3 dealer survey indicates Harley-Davidson's U.S. retail sales were up 3.5% in the quarter. The firm believes dealer inventory levels remain at five-year lows. Barclays checks indicate Harley-Davidson demand remains solid but expects limited near-term growth given lean inventory. The firm is encouraged by demand but remains on sidelines given macro headwinds. After conducting checks, RBC Capital reports that Harley-Davidson's retail trends are no longer improving but demand remains stable and pricing is firm.