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D Fry Market Outlook 20 03 2007

We were up sharply Monday because subprime issues were subdued, overseas markets were higher [leading the way?] and M&A deals were back to the forefront. I would add perhaps another reason--with two weeks left to end the quarter there are always incentives for portfolio managers to do some window dressing.

This is also a time of the year when investors fund their retirement plans and that money will get invested fairly quickly. AMG Data from last week confirms this trend.

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And in the spirit of "I get by with a little help from my friends" the Fed and Treasury remain active providing the primary dealers with a growing supply of temporary cash.

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So, the markets are well-lubed by any definition.

A continuing and deepening mystery is the missing NYSE program trading data for the past several weeks. Remember that last year the NYSE discovered that for the past several years they had been overstating activity by double-counting transactions. Now they just aren't doing it at all for some reason. I believe the problem is the trading glitch they experienced nearly three weeks ago. But that doesn't explain missing current data.

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The only negative you could note is light volume Monday. And volume has been lighter on up days recently while heavier during sell-offs.

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For the past three weeks investors have talked mainly about rediscovering risk and how to either avoid it or reprice it. But with so much cash floating about and performance anxiety afflicting most managers, that concern appears to have been quickly forgotten. You have to give the bulls credit as their firepower trumps all worries.

Tuesday is the Fed meeting which should be a nonevent.

Have a pleasant day.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:IEF), streetTRACKS Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) and iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund (NYSEARCA:EWA).

Source: David Fry's Market Outlook for Tuesday