There's so much positive economic news coming out that I'll summarize six of the reports below instead of writing a separate post for each one:
1. Gallup's survey-based measure of the U.S. unemployment rate dropped sharply to 8.3% in mid-October, from 9.2% at the end of August and from 10% a year ago (see chart above). The decrease suggests that the BLS could report an October jobless rate below 9.0%.
2. To meet burgeoning worldwide market demand for Boeing's single-aisle jets, the 737 production rate has recently increased from 31.5 airplanes per month to 35 per month, and will increase in the future to 38 airplanes a month in the spring of 2013, and to 42 airplanes a month by the summer of 2014.
3. Demand for commercial vehicles strengthened in September. Class 8 net orders rose to 23,600 units, a gain of 55% year-over-year and 12% month over month, while orders for 5-7 classes rose 8% month over month. “Years of deferred purchases are buoying up demand,” said an industry analyst.
4. Leading economic indexes continued to improve for China in August by 0.50%, and for the U.S. by 0.20% in September (see chart above). The Leading Economic Indicator in the U.S. has now increased in 29 out of the last 30 months, and there hasn't been such a long streak of positive readings over a 30-month period since the early 1970s, 40 years ago.
5. According to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Business Outlook Survey, regional manufacturing for Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware showed signs of recovering in September, following several months of decline. The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions increased from -17.5 in September to 8.7, the first positive reading in three months. Indicators for future regional manufacturing activity remained positive and strengthened moderately this month. The broadest indicator of future activity improved by 6 points in September, and is now at its highest level in six months.
The case for the U.S. economy to enter another recession this year continues to weaken.