Longs Catch Better Trade Off Cerner's Earnings-Related After-Hours Moves

| About: Cerner Corporation (CERN)

Cerner (NASDAQ:CERN) is due to report its Q3 results after the bell tonight. The Thomson Reuters analyst estimate puts EPS at $0.47 per share on $533 million in revenue.

While CERN has a mixed overall history, the stock will have longs watching for post-earnings after-hours gains as the issue tends to push higher in the next-day regular session.

CERN is mixed in its share reactions between the extended-hours and regular sessions following its past 27 earnings reports. It widened its nighttime move 12 times, narrowed 12, put up a matching performance twice and once followed up flat evening trading with a next-day gain.

Looking deeper into the data, longs will note that the stock has responded to earnings news with a gain 13 times, extending that move nine times, or 69% of the time.

On the downside, the stock has reacted to earnings with an evening decline 13 times, expanding that move only four times.

On July 28, 2011, CERN gained 3.1% in night trading after posting better-than-expected Q2 results and in-line guidance. The stock firmed even higher the next day, closing the July 29 regular session up 7.2%.

On April 28, 2011, the stock gained 4.4% during evening trading after a Q1 beat and guidance that straddled the Street view. Shares rose a stronger 7.2% the next day.

On February 8, the stock edged up 0.3% after earnings. The stock reversed to closed down 3.1% the following day.

On Oct. 28, 2010, the stock fell 4.2% after a Q3 earnings beat, a revenue miss and guidance that straddled the Street view. Shares bounced and gained 0.6% in the next day's regular session.

On July 28, 2010, the stock finished evening trading flat after a Q2 beat and Q3 guidance mostly in line with the Street view. Shares rose 2.9% the next day.

On April 28, 2010, CERN shed 3% in evening trading after beating Q1 estimates and setting guidance in a range that straddled the Street view. The stock held the same 3% decline in the April 29 regular session.

On Feb. 9, 2010, CERN advanced 1.7% in evening trading after beating Q4 expectations and setting in-line guidance. It lost its gain the following day, closing the Feb. 10 regular session down 2%.

On Oct. 28, 2009, the stock slipped 0.2% after a revenue miss. Shares rebounded to gain 1.4% the next day.

On July 29, 2009, the stock fell 3.8% after meeting with EPS but setting mixed guidance. Shares edged up 0.6% the following day.

On April 28, 2009, CERN shed 3.5% in after-hours trading after missing Q1 revenue expectations, beating on earnings and setting guidance in a range that straddled the Street view. The stock reversed direction the following day, advancing 10.7% by the close on April 29.

On Feb. 10, 2008, the stock slipped 0.3% after beating on earnings and guiding in line. Shares fell 1.9% the next day.

On Oct. 21, 2008, the stock gained 8.5% in the extended-hours period after beating with Q3 results. The gain was nearly cut in half and shares closed up 4.8% the next day.

On July 22, 2008, CERN edged up 0.9% in after-hours trading after beating Q2 estimates and setting guidance in-line with expectations for Q3. The stock firmed higher in the July 23 regular session, rising 4.2% by the closing bell.

On April 22, 2008, CERN advanced 8.7% in the extended-hours session after beating Q1 estimates, setting a stock buyback plan and issuing mixed guidance. Bulls added to the upside in the following day's regular session, boosting CERN 17.6%.

On Jan. 31, 2008, the stock fell 4.1% in the evening hours after CERN missed with Q4 revenue and guided below Street. The loss swelled to 10.2% the next day.

On Oct. 18, 2007, the stock fell 10.6% after the company reported ahead with Q3 EPS but missed on sales and saw Q4 in line to below. The decline was reined in just slightly, to 9% the next day.

On July 24, 2007, CERN edged up 1.5% in night trading after meeting on Q2 EPS, beating on revenue, and guiding in-line. It saw that evening gain evaporate the next day, closing the July 25 regular session down 4.1%.

On April 19, 2007, the stock edged up 0.8% in the evening extended hours session after earnings beat by a penny and despite cautious guidance. The issue gained 1% the next day.

On Feb. 1, 2007, CERN jumped 7.4% in night trading after beating Q4 sales estimates and matching on EPS. It also guided for Q1 sales to top expectations. Shares marched higher the next day, ending the regular session up 10.5%.

On Oct. 19, 2006, the stock fell 1.2% after the company reported results ahead of the Street and guided mostly in line. Shares reversed to close up 3.1% the next day.

On July 20, 2006, CERN edged up 2.3% in after hours when the company beat Q2 sales estimates and matched on EPS. It also forecast Q3 and FY EPS to be in line to above expectations. The shares jumped higher the next day, ending the day session up 13.8%.

In April 20, 2006, CERN dipped 1.8% in evening trading although it beat Q1 expectations and guided Q2 EPS in line with to above estimates. The shares, though, found no solace and dropped 9.6% by the end of the next day's regular session.

On February 2, 2006, CERN dropped 4.8% in night trading after meeting Q4 earnings expectations and topping sales forecasts. However, it predicted Q1 EPS would be below Street views. The shares tumbled further the next day, ending the regular session down 8.7%.

On October 20, 2005, CERN edged up 1.9% in night trading after beating Q3 sales estimates and coming in line on earnings with Street forecasts. But shares could not hold on to the small gains and closed the next day session down 1.0%.

On July 21, CERN climbed 4.7% after Q2 results bested Street targets and the company guided Q3 and 2005 revenue above the Street. It widened that gain in the July 22 regular session, closing up 7.6%.

On April 21, 2005 CERN dropped 1.9% despite beating expectations and guiding in line with the Street view. It reversed direction in the April 22 regular session, gaining 1.8%.

On Feb. 3, 2005, CERN rose 1.1% after hours after beating expectations and guiding higher. It widened that move in the Feb. 4 regular session, closing up 4.4%.

On Oct. 20, 2004, CERN dropped 3.8% after hours after missing revenue projections but topping analysts' EPS estimates. It matched that loss in the Oct. 21 regular session, closing down 3.8%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.