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Cameron International (NYSE:CAM)

Q3 2011 Earnings Call

October 27, 2011 9:30 am ET

Executives

Jeffrey G. Altamari - Vice President of Investor Relations

Charles M. Sledge - Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President

Jack B. Moore - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, President and Director

Analysts

Collin Gerry - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division

William A. Herbert - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Roger D. Read - Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc., Research Division

James Crandell - Dahlman Rose & Company, LLC, Research Division

James C. West - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Tom Curran - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Michael W. Urban - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Geoff Kieburtz - Weeden & Co., LP, Research Division

Jeff Tillery - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division

Robin E. Shoemaker - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

William Cornelius Conroy - Pritchard Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division

Operator

Greetings, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Cameron Third Quarter 2011 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Jeff Altamari, Vice President, Investor Relations for Cameron. Thank you. Mr. Altamari, you may begin.

Jeffrey G. Altamari

Thank you, LaTonya. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. This morning, you'll hear from Jack Moore, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Cameron; and Chuck Sledge, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We're also joined by John Carne, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. Jack and Chuck will offer some commentary on the results for the quarter, and we'll then take time to deal with your questions.

In accordance with the Safe Harbor provisions of the Securities Laws, we caution you that some of the statements made on this call may be forward-looking in nature and, as such, are subject to various factors not under the control of the company. For a more complete description of these factors and the related risks and uncertainties, please refer to Cameron's annual report on Form 10-K, the company's most recent Form 10-Q and the associated news release.

With that, I'll now turn things over to Jack.

Jack B. Moore

Thank you, Jeff. Cameron reported earnings of $0.78 a share in Q3 excluding charges. Revenues in the quarter were just shy of $1.7 billion, up 10% versus last year, driven by gains in our Drilling & Production Systems and our Valves & Measurement segments. Net income for the quarter was $165 million. Cameron had another strong bookings quarter, totaling just over $2 billion and up over 35% versus Q3 of 2010. Year-to-date orders totaled $5.9 billion and our backlog stands at $5.8 billion.

As we talked about in our Q2 call, the diversity of Cameron's portfolio benefited us again in Q3, with record bookings in Surface Systems, Distributed Valves, Process Valves and our Measurement segments. We did close the LeTourneau acquisition on Monday. We're very excited about the potential of this excellent -- this acquisition creates for the Cameron enterprise. LeTourneau has a very rich history of providing quality products with quality people to the drilling community, and we are extremely proud to have them join our team. Let me drill, no pun intended, into the highlights of the quarter.

Overall bookings for our Drilling & Production Systems segments came in at $1,150,000,000 in Q2, a 60% increase over last year. Subsea Systems bookings were just shy of $400 million for the quarter. No large project awards were recorded. However, we did secured an order in Norway for Det Norske for their Jette project, our second deepwater project in Norway. We've also secured additional orders for ongoing work in West Africa, Australia, China and the Gulf of Mexico. Revenues came in at $352 million for the quarter. And I would say that overall project quotation activity continued to be very robust in all markets. And we expect to see near-term movement in major awards.

Surface Systems had record bookings in Q3, coming in at $346 million, up 28% versus last year. All regions reported strong results, driven by higher rig activity levels. North America bookings continue to build as we broaden our penetration in the shales. As we have stated on previous calls, we placed a lot of focus on our sales efforts, our facility infrastructure, our personnel and our fracturing manifold asset builds to support this market, and the investments are paying off.

Project bookings in Saudi, Iraq, Indonesia and the former Soviet Union had also positive impacts for the quarter. Surface revenues for the quarter were $340 million, also a new record. Drilling Systems bookings in Q3 totaled $415 million. We booked 2 subsea stacks, 10 jack-up and 2 platform stacks in the quarter. Aftermarket bookings came in at $171 million for the quarter, up 70% from the Q3 of 2010. We continue to ramp up our capacity and personnel to support this increasing level of demand for aftermarket services. Revenues for the quarter came in at $280 million. We expect to see, I think, as a lot of you do, a lot of activity with deepwater newbuilds commitments that are currently existing in Brazil. And as for the rest of the world, we expect to see additional upgrades in option extensions for future newbuilds, both onshore and offshore, to evolve in the coming year.

As previously mentioned, we are excited to have closed the LeTourneau acquisition this week. It's a wonderful complement and fit to our existing Drilling Systems platform, and many our customers have been very supportive of Cameron in making this move. It broadens our current portfolio of products, expands our aftermarket scope and brings a depth of talent of people and infrastructure that will provide a great foundation for growth in the future. I will note that Letourneau's backlog sits at $285 million at the end of Q3, and we will talk more in the next call on how the integration is moving forward. But needless to say, we have a lot of potential that is yet to be realized, and it will take sometime to develop.

Process & Compression orders in Q3 were $345 million, down 5% versus 2010. Compression orders for both Recip and Centrifugal were up over 40% versus 2010 levels, while several projects for Process Systems shifted into Q4, resulting in the net decline. Compression bookings were driven by increased demand in Asia, Middle East, India and Russia. Process orders continue to benefit from strong demand in North America, while the higher-profile projects are shifting to the right, specifically in Latin America. Revenues were $276 million in the quarter, essentially flat with Q3 of 2010, and I will say a disappointing result, as we were challenged to get shipments out the door into Q3 as a result of execution issues in the business unit. We do expect to see incremental improvement in revenues for Process Systems in Q4.

Our outlook continues to strengthen -- for our outlook, our customers continue to strengthen their commitments to both onshore and offshore resource development. Demand for deepwater technology is expanding. We see a large number of projects across all of our markets in various stages of tendering. Cameron has 6 business units that are connected to deepwater in various stages of its development, from drilling to process, and of course, helping create the subsea infrastructure in between. Brazil will be big for both our Drilling and Subsea business units. Current tendering activity with both could result in significant bookings in 2012. Process Systems and Valves will also benefit with the FPSO awards that will evolve over the coming year.

As a reminder, Cameron is making significant investments in Brazil to support the increased demands with Petrobras and others. Our challenge will be to ensure that we earn the appropriate return on those investments. West Africa is all about timing, and of course, balancing risk. Our customers require significant increases in local content on future work. And we must ensure that the pricing and terms support those inherent risks. We're seeing expanding opportunities in U.K. North Sea and the pace of activity in the Gulf of Mexico is now moving in the right direction. Asia and the Mediterranean is also providing lots of visibility for upside in the coming year.

The growth of our bookings to support the onshore activities has been a very positive story for Cameron. Cameron has 8 business units that touch our customers' onshore spend cycle, both upstream and downstream. While we do expect to see some pullback in onshore-directed drilling activity in North America given current price dynamics, we are seeing an increase with the pace of all directed activities. This is creating a lot of opportunity for our CAMSHALE program, where we pull together the capabilities of our Surface Systems, our Valves, our Process, Measurement and Compression business units to drive more efficient solutions for our customers. We also see a great number of projects across international markets that are providing us great opportunities to further expand our onshore enterprise.

Now I will turn it over to Chuck.

Charles M. Sledge

Thank you, Jack. As you saw in our release, our adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.78 per share. We also incurred $0.11 per share in other costs to get us to a reported EPS of $0.67. Revenues for the quarter were up 10% from year-ago levels but relatively flat sequentially. For 2011 as a whole, we expect revenues to increase in the low double-digit range, with both V&M and PCS experiencing double-digit growth, while DPS revenue growth should be slightly north of 5%. Our EBITDA margins increased, ending at 18.1% for the quarter from 15.9% in the second quarter. DPS led the increase, registering an EBITDA margin of 22.8% versus 18.7% for Q2. DPS's margins were positively influenced by a shift in higher-margin subsea revenues into the third quarter.

V&M's EBITDA margin also improved sequentially to 21% from 20.1% in Q2. This improvement was again led by our North American businesses. As a result of the execution issues in PCS Jack discussed, their margins declined sequentially from 13.9% to 12.3%. For the fourth quarter of 2011, we expect EBITDA margins to be down, with Subsea being the biggest drag on margins. Subsea revenues may make up 25% of fourth quarter revenues versus 22% year-to-date, with approximately $70 million of Usan revenue in the fourth quarter and virtually no margin. V&M margins should stay relatively flat with the third quarter.

We are expecting some improvement in the PCS margin in the fourth quarter, but it will be 2012 before they get back to more normal levels. While our fourth quarter margins will be below our expectation due to PCS and low-calorie Subsea revenue, on a medium-term expectation basis, we believe the third quarter margin performance is a more realistic target going forward for the company as a whole.

Other costs, which total $0.11 per share for the quarter, included $0.04 per share for litigation-related costs, $0.04 per share associated with repurchasing our convertible debentures and $0.02 per share related to mark-to-market losses on foreign currency derivatives designed to protect our cash flows from a weakening of the U.S. dollar. And this is in cases where we receive U.S. dollars from our customers, but incur costs in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. These specific derivatives are not accounted for the cash flow hedges under accounting rules. Therefore, you see the accounting impact broken out here, and we'll continue to see them going forward.

Cash flow from operations was $105 million for the quarter, although we did continue to build working capital. We should see significant cash generation in the fourth quarter. CapEx should approximate $350 million for the year, as we are making significant investments in our drilling aftermarket and unconventional resource-related businesses, as well as our Brazil subsea infrastructure and our business system upgrade. We completed our retirement of our converts during the quarter for a total cash cost of $706 million. As a result, our share count decreased to 247 million. As I mentioned above, we did incur $0.04 per share in connection with the retirement of these instruments.

Our tax rate for the quarter was 17%, bringing the year-to-date rate to 19.6%. This should be a good rate to plug into your models for the fourth quarter. Our D&A expectation for the year is approximately $200 million, and as is typical each year, the fourth quarter will represent the highest quarter for corporate G&A, so you should use $45 million in your model for corporate G&A for the fourth quarter. For interest expense, you should use third quarter levels on your models. We have tightened up our earnings guidance for the full year to a range of between $2.63 and $2.66 per share.

With that, let's open it up for questions.

Jeffrey G. Altamari

LaTonya, we're now open for questions.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Bill Herbert with Simmons & Company.

William A. Herbert - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

Chuck, sorry, you gave a lot of data, and it was just hard keeping up. So I'm probably going to ask you stuff that you covered, but I didn't transcribe quickly enough. So sorry about that. So your DPS revenue guidance for 2011 now calls for basically up 5% year-over-year?

Charles M. Sledge

Slightly north of 5%.

William A. Herbert - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

Okay. And what drives that delta is that surge in the fourth quarter is LeTourneau?

Charles M. Sledge

No, really, it's Subsea revenue.

William A. Herbert - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

It's Subsea revenue, fine. And then I can probably back into this, but you said margins are going to be lower quarter-on-quarter, given mix and also $25 million worth of Usan, correct?

Charles M. Sledge

$70 million of Usan at virtually no margin.

William A. Herbert - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

Fine. So our margins -- so where should we think about EBITDA margins for the fourth quarter? I mean, lower but what?

Charles M. Sledge

Well, it's always hard to pin down exactly, but you could see them down 1 point, 1.5 points.

William A. Herbert - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

Fine. So we're looking at kind of 21 and change?

Charles M. Sledge

I meant for the company as a whole, Bill.

William A. Herbert - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

No, but for DPS.

Charles M. Sledge

Yes, a little harder for us to pin down DPS, given what may happen on Subsea revenue.

William A. Herbert - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

Look, I mean, I can cover this offline, so we will do that then. Jack, what exactly ails process and completion process here? I mean, we're conveying improvement in the fourth quarter, but we had sort of a strain -- I mean, DPS showing considerable improvement. Yes, we've got the Usan issues, but those are transitory, Q3 margins probably more reflective of economic reality going forward, great story. Valve & Measurements, we're purging through the low-margin backlog, that's a good story. Process and Completion has been sort of in quasi-turnaround mode for a while. What's the roadmap here for that business?

Jack B. Moore

Bill, it's just pure execution. We just got to get on top of the some of the internal manufacturing opportunities, some of the supply chain challenges. It's a combination of several things. I'm not going to give you a list of -- it's customer challenges, it's this or that or the other. Just quite honestly, we've got to execute better on the work we've got. Great visibility, lots of opportunity. We've got to deliver on those opportunities. It's just a huge opportunity, we're excited about it. We've got to get better at doing what we know we can do.

William A. Herbert - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

Got you, okay. And then on a more sort of a salvatory front here, Subsea, basically your commentary seems to corroborate what is still a compelling evidence for a vague 2012 year for orders. No need to cover that, you guys seem well-positioned on that front.

Jack B. Moore

This should be a good year, Bill. Keep in mind, we're not always in control of what timing gives us.

William A. Herbert - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

Fingers crossed. But with regard to the more short-cycle businesses, perhaps even mislabeled these days, but some topical passion on that front with regard to the outlook here in a period in which E&P capital spending perhaps doesn't necessarily implode, but the rate of growth slows. Gas drilling, as you said, perhaps takes a bit of a hit offset by some further increases in oil and liquids-rich drilling. Talk to us about the resilience of your "shorter cycle" businesses going forward. And what should we expect from really kind of how that business' top line responds to a slowing rate of E&P capital spending growth and how do margins respond?

Jack B. Moore

Well, Bill, I think that what I would characterize it with, if you just kind of get a sense of what we're doing year-over-year in terms of growth in the order rate, we are clearly able to capture some share relative to the space we play in. The shales for Cameron is a life-cycle phenomenon. When you look at the capabilities we now can touch with the resource plays in North America, some of them are involving outside of North America because we're well-positioned all over the world. But let's just take North America, for example. 3 years ago, it was maybe a $25 million to $50 million opportunity all-in if you took some of our valves and process and even drilling some of the drilling opportunity. Today, that number is north of $400,000. So I mean, $50,000 to $400,000 is how much of that space can we continue to expand and play in and fill some of the voids that, I think, our customers are demanding for high-quality equipment, high-quality players, high-quality service providers. We design it, we build it and we service it, and a lot of customers love that. We've had the dial our game up to be able to capture the opportunity. So some of -- that is what feels good to us because of the momentum we've been able to capture with that. We've made some huge investments in it, I think more so than anyone else we compete within our space. I mean, hundreds of millions of dollars in this piece of the business. And that's paying off because it's all about asset deployment and performance.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jim Crandell with Dahlman Rose.

James Crandell - Dahlman Rose & Company, LLC, Research Division

Jack, what is your best guess on the number of deepwaters that will hit in Subsea before year end? And maybe you could provide a little color on the projects that are out there.

Jack B. Moore

I hate to -- you're going to try and pin me down on a guess, and I'm never right, Jim. I'd say there's a couple in Asia that should book, that I think are close -- when we feel that they -- that pretty much determine who's going to win, and it's just a matter of making it a formality. But there's 20-plus major projects out there that we're tracking that could evolve over the next 18 months. And that's a big number relative to what we've seen in the past. And just considering where they are with the tendering process, that's probably more of -- the biggest near-term reality we've seen over the last many years, maybe ever. But those things aren't always predicable. Some of this could slide into '13 if things don't evolve. But there is a big number that we're tracking, and it is all over the world. I mean, it's Australia, it's West Africa, it's the North Sea, it's some projects in the Gulf of Mexico, it's the Mediterranean. It's a plethora of opportunities.

James Crandell - Dahlman Rose & Company, LLC, Research Division

Jack, for these projects that you've already bid and that will be awarded hopefully before year end or early in the first quarter, do you think the buzz surrounding the contracts will be, "Gee, things weren't so bad in pricing, given what we were feared?" Or is that there'll be lot of sort of to-ing and fro-ing and a lot of allegations about cutting prices?

Jack B. Moore

I think that unfortunately, the environment, I think, is still -- we're not where we would like to be relative to getting paid what we're worth. I'll just leave it at that.

James Crandell - Dahlman Rose & Company, LLC, Research Division

Okay. And I had also a question about your BOP's business. If you look at the deepwater floater awards, this cycle, Jack, what would you estimate your share of the deepwater floater awards that are bid as a package? And if you say, "Okay, take away those that are bid as a package and that are bid separately just in terms of the pressure control stack." And you don't have to be exact, but maybe you could at least put a range on it in terms of differentiating between those 2 pieces.

Jack B. Moore

Well, I'd say the number is probably in the mid-30s, Jim. Obviously, the packaging with the spec builds has helped -- it's been a real asset to NOV. We've obviously partnered with some others and have been successful in certain ventures. We still have customers that will prefer specific equipment. So it's not unlikely to see Cameron and others have a combination of equipment provided for newbuilds infrastructure. And I think you'll see that evolve in Brazil. I think you'll continue to see it evolve around the world. So that's kind of where I would paint the picture today.

James Crandell - Dahlman Rose & Company, LLC, Research Division

I was going to say, Jack, if the business had not changed in the way jobs are awarded and you were just looking at, let's say, your traditional customers, do you think your market share versus the last couple of cycles would be similar and it's really the packaging of BOP stacks which has caused your share to be lower this cycle?

Charles M. Sledge

Jim, it's Chuck. I think if you look at share last cycle versus this cycle, it's running about the same. Basically it's 1/3, 1/3, 1/3. Big picture.

James Crandell - Dahlman Rose & Company, LLC, Research Division

Okay. And then just to follow up on the BOPs. Jack, how important or how big of a delta you think as you look at 2012 and 2013 will your BOP service repair, testings, spare parts be in the future? Do you expect that to rise meaningfully and be a considerable plus or because of the changes that have taken place in that business?

Jack B. Moore

No, absolutely, Jim. Because what you're going to see are the more frequent repair cycles than we've seen in years past, and then the discipline to use OEMs. I mean, our challenge, and I think everyone in our industry that's an OEM's challenge is to ramp up your ability to handle it. I mean, you go from $250 million a year kind of run rate to $500 million. And that's a huge strain on the service organization because you just -- you can't get there fast enough for everybody to be happy. So it's how well you do getting there and holding on to that business. And I think that's what we're putting a lot of emphasis and investment on right now. So I mean, the potential for us to see significant aftermarket opportunities in 2012, 2013 and beyond from where we are today and where we've been, it's huge. I mean, it could be double, easily double from where we're at. And we've got to get there in order to handle it and capture it and retain it. And that's what we're working on.

Operator

Our next question comes from Collin Gerry with Raymond James.

Collin Gerry - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division

I don't want to belabor the point, but I do want to hone in a little bit on the Q4 guidance and make sure I'm kind of getting some things right because I think you did walk through some of the numbers fast. On the DPS revenues, year-over-year, up 5%. Am I right to think that, that implies a very large sequential uptick in Q4?

Charles M. Sledge

Yes.

Collin Gerry - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division

Okay. And then so the other part, just kind of taking a step back, bigger picture, if I just kind of assume that and then go through some of your other guidance numbers, just I have -- at least how my model works, it adds about $0.20, $0.25 to what you did this quarter. Help me rationalize that with the implied guidance that you gave for Q4. Is it margins coming down as it relates to SG&A for the quarter? Is it lower Subsea margins? I mean, that has to really come down in DPS. I guess, I'm getting a little bit of a divergence between the granular guidance and the actual bottom line guidance.

Charles M. Sledge

Sure. Well, when you think about the components that we talked about, we said Subsea revenue, low-calorie Subsea revenue is going to make up a bigger portion of the total. It was running in the low 20s, it's going to be the mid-20s. So you've got to factor that in. You're going to have $70 million of Usan revenue at virtually no margin in the fourth quarter. Then we said that V&M margins probably flat, maybe a small uptick in PCS, and then you got incremental G&A sitting at the corporate level, and as well, you have -- we had a tax rate of about 17% for the third quarter and we guided to 19.6% for the fourth quarter.

Collin Gerry - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division

Okay, I missed that tax guidance. So that makes a lot more sense. Okay, stepping out of Q4 guidance, I guess, bigger picture, I haven't seen the granular numbers in terms of kind of Drilling and Subsea and stuff like that, but I would suppose that you've seen a huge backlog boost in the drilling-specific segment within DPS. And my question is given your accounting, kind of the completed contract accounting, when should we assume that burns through as revenue? I mean, a lot of that is probably floater BOPs that are on the shipyard for 3 years. Does it takes 3 years for that to be revenue? Or is it more gradual?

Charles M. Sledge

Well, let me give to a data point. Out of backlog at 9/30 for Drilling, over $400 million of that will ship in 2013 because of the fact that you just described.

Collin Gerry - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division

Okay, I'm sorry, I missed that. Could you repeat that?

Charles M. Sledge

Out of the backlog that existed for Drilling at 9/30, over $400 million of that will ship in 2013.

Collin Gerry - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division

And just remind us, what was the backlog at 9/30?

Charles M. Sledge

Give me 1 second. I've got it right here. Backlog at 9/30 for Drilling was $1.2 billion. Is that correct, Jeff, for Drilling?

Jeffrey G. Altamari

Yes.

Charles M. Sledge

That's the number.

Collin Gerry - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division

Okay. So that answers my question. About 1/3 of that is going to go out into 2013.

Charles M. Sledge

Yes.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jeff Tillery with Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

Jeff Tillery - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division

Chuck, as you talk about Q3 margins being representative of the medium-term margin outlook, so the composition of that we should expect PCS to go up, Valves to go up and probably DPS to be a little bit lower? Is that fair?

Charles M. Sledge

Valves, kind of flattish, PCS, getting to more historical margins. And yes, so DPS from the third quarter levels, that would imply going down a bit.

Jeff Tillery - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division

Okay, as you guys -- Jack, you talked a little bit about PCS's issues being primarily execution. As you look at the backlog today, is it a better price backlog than it was Q3? In terms of the margins, do you think there in the backlog, are they up or flattish from what you would have thought your backlog was priced at Q3 last year?

Jack B. Moore

Yes, from last year to this year, the pricing is better. Yes.

Jeff Tillery - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division

And any color on that? Is it substantially, slightly? I'm just trying to think through how much [indiscernible] versus what's been just priced into this.

Jack B. Moore

It will depend on how well we will execute on it. But it is -- has got more calories in it, let's put it that way.

Jeff Tillery - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division

Chuck, is this tax rate sustainable as we go into next year?

Charles M. Sledge

I think 19.6% is probably just a tad low for next year. But our long-term goal for taxes is right around 20%. So maybe next year, 21% would be something that you could put in your models, 21%, 22%, something like that.

Jeff Tillery - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division

Okay. And my last question, just around drilling aftermarket. I think you said, Jack, that $170 million of bookings this quarter, so last quarter was $190 million. Just pluses or minuses quarter-to-quarter, is this where you think the order rate settles out at, [indiscernible] for revenues?

Jack B. Moore

No, it's hard to tell. But I do think that you'll hit a point where the incremental order rate we get comes from -- as newbuilds kind of come off their warranty cycles and other things. And we'll start seeing it, as those newbuilds go to work, that comes into the population. So as you get more fleet out there operating, the aftermarket opportunities continue to grow. But you also get in some of this, we have some major repairs that we're also doing and that will skew it from time to time. So you just have to take that in. And that's why it's hard to look at, at any 1 given quarter and say, "That's what it's going to be." I just -- year-over-year, substantial growth, look at where we are year-to-date versus year-to-date last year, substantial growth. All that shift is -- the majority of that shift is going to just be the way business is going to work in the future.

Operator

Our next question comes from Roger Read with Morgan Keegan.

Roger D. Read - Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc., Research Division

Well, I guess, my question will turn back may be more to the U.S. onshore market. I know the Haynesville Shale was one of the areas that definitely required the higher-pressure wellheads. But maybe you could kind of walk us through how the shift towards the oil side, the 8 business units and all, how that might filter through for you as we look at '12 compared to '11?

Jack B. Moore

I think it's just really the infrastructure. You're still going to use a lot of frac-ing equipment, even though it may be 10,000, not as high-pressure as some of the gas, but 10,000 psi to 15,000 psi frac equipment is the norm, multistage fracs in the oily prospects. They still need equipment that works, still need equipment they can rely on. That's where Cameron's been able to, I think, really differentiate themselves. So you bring that to the table, you bring our footprint that we've expanded with Patterson-UTI, H&P, Nabors in terms of the pressure control equipment we're providing them. The aftermarket opportunities we're getting from that side of the business, the process equipment we can bring to location, now the valve infrastructure we get when we bring all of this through the gathering systems, the midstream, it's a big story. And that continues to evolve.

Roger D. Read - Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc., Research Division

Okay. So if we continue to see the horizontal rig count move -- if the mix is positive and that rig count, even if the rig count doesn't do anything significant next year, are the wells [ph] going to drop off? Or I mean, how would you characterize it in terms of -- it doesn't matter that much what happens on the gas side if oil keeps growing or we really need to see stability at some level?

Jack B. Moore

I think that -- you may have a -- I think we definitely will see a shift from gas to oil-directed drilling. As we've seen, the utilization of that equipment is what's going to continue to give us the opportunities for growth. And if we can expand our footprint, which is going to be somewhat penetrating more historical counts, where we provide traditional wellhead equipment with adding the additional capabilities with the frac infrastructure, the valves, the fracturing, the frac manifolds, some of the flowback capabilities that we have with our process infrastructure, that's all good. And that's kind of where our focus has been. And it's working pretty well.

Roger D. Read - Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc., Research Division

Okay. Last question, as you look at the issues that hurt the process side in the third quarter, and obviously, they're going to be around for the fourth, without going into maybe detail you don't want to offer up, how much of this is putting together what've been a couple of acquisitions over the last several years, those kind of challenges in terms of, I guess, internal integration? And how much of it would you characterize as maybe just this kind of stuff hasn't really been done before? And so that's maybe -- is it an engineering issue or is it an internal manufacturing issue?

Jack B. Moore

No, this is all internal to us. We've got the wherewithal and the know-how to get this turned around. And that's what we're working on. So it's just some things that we just got to make sure we get on top of. It's internal blocking and tackling. That's all it is.

Operator

The next question comes from James West with Barclays Capital.

James C. West - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Jack, you've talked about on the pressure control side, the BOP side, the aftermarket opportunity being north of $500 million. Clearly, we're at those levels or above these levels now. What do you think the true market opportunity is there? And then based on your capacity expansion so far, kind of what is your revenue capacity on the aftermarket side?

Jack B. Moore

Well, that clearly, it will be -- it will equal that and continue to push it. We have capital expansions going on in Asia right now. We have them going in the North Sea right now, we have them going on in Brazil, and we have them going in the U.S. So really, what we see, James, is we'll see the aftermarket opportunities continue to grow as more of these rigs come into service that we're providing new equipment to. And that's really where we have to continue to evolve our operation to support that.

James C. West - Barclays Capital, Research Division

But you can't give a number on kind of what the capacity increases, kind of with those regions you highlighted today, what that would represent?

Jack B. Moore

Yes. Well, we're gearing up to support what we see is supporting our share, which is going to be north of $500 million.

Charles M. Sledge

And it will grow and evolve from that. We're not going to be bashful about investing in it.

James C. West - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Okay, understood. And then how many of the floating rigs that have been ordered so far this cycle, how many deepwater BOP stacks are still up for grabs at this point?

Jack B. Moore

Well, if you include the 21 in Brazil, which is a big number in and of itself, there's probably another 20-plus floaters out there that are being considered or options that haven't been exercised yet or tenders that are still pending. It's still a big number. Not all of those probably will get ordered, and I can't predict the timing on when all the Brazil infrastructure will get ordered. But we all feel pretty confident that these projects will move forward.

Operator

The next question is from Geoff Kieburtz with Weeden & Co.

Geoff Kieburtz - Weeden & Co., LP, Research Division

Just to get basic in terms of your guidance for the fourth quarter, this is off your $1.89 adjusted EPS year-to-date, correct?

Charles M. Sledge

Yes, it's off of the adjusted EPS for the year-to-date.

Geoff Kieburtz - Weeden & Co., LP, Research Division

Okay. And you made a comment, Chuck, about the impact of the hedges on the -- we pulled it out of the operating number, but I think you said that we're going to continue to see some impact from that going forward.

Charles M. Sledge

Yes, these are where we're hedging fourth quarter and 2012 cash flows. So what you're going to see is volatility. For example, the hedges we have in place, the loss we took in the third quarter, quarter-to-date has been totally reversed. And now these are in quite a nice gain position. So what I meant to communicate to everyone in that other cost line, you will continue to see mark-to-market accounting for the hedges that we do not designate as cash flow hedges.

Geoff Kieburtz - Weeden & Co., LP, Research Division

Okay, all right. And that can equally, likely to be up or down.

Charles M. Sledge

That is correct.

Geoff Kieburtz - Weeden & Co., LP, Research Division

Okay. And again, maybe ask you something that you said already. But your comment about North America, I heard the word pullback, but I wasn't sure whether you were talking about exclusively gas drilling pullback or overall, you're expecting a pullback.

Jack B. Moore

No, it's really -- our visibility is really to the gas side of that.

Geoff Kieburtz - Weeden & Co., LP, Research Division

Okay. Do you have a view on the sort of the net, the combination of -- as you said, we've see in liquids drilling expanding...

Jack B. Moore

I think, Geoff, you have a high case and a low case. And low case, you could say you could see, net-net, maybe rigs get pinched if gas prices stay extremely low. But there's so much investment that's been made in the U.S. And you have to be encouraged with Statoil coming in, making huge investments, BHP, BG, Chevron, of course, Exxon. These guys have got huge commitments and are going to plow through some of these price swings. So we're very positive about the long-term opportunities in North America.

Geoff Kieburtz - Weeden & Co., LP, Research Division

You're not necessarily forecasting a downward trend in overall North America rig count?

Jack B. Moore

I'm not, no.

Geoff Kieburtz - Weeden & Co., LP, Research Division

All right. And lastly, on the Subsea margin -- or so sorry, the DPS margin, you've talked about the Usan $70 million of 0 margin revenue. Excluding that, are Subsea margins coming down as well?

Charles M. Sledge

In the fourth quarter, the answer is yes. Because remember, I said that in the third quarter revenue, we had a shift of certain high-margin Subsea revenues into the third quarter. So that's why you've got that, along with Subsea being a bigger number and Usan revenue and no margin. You're going to have DPS margins coming down in the fourth quarter. They might look a little bit like second quarter, maybe slightly above.

Geoff Kieburtz - Weeden & Co., LP, Research Division

Okay. And if we take Usan out of the picture just for a second, just want to understand, the Subsea -- the margins in Subsea for the third quarter were maybe a little bit elevated. The margins in Subsea x Usan will maybe be a little bit below average. Is that right? Or should we be thinking about the fourth quarter Subsea margin x Usan as sort of the run rate?

Charles M. Sledge

It will be slightly below the run rate. I will, just like Jack, echo his comments about Subsea project pricing, it's not great. And that is definitely going to weigh on our results and everybody else who's bidding.

Geoff Kieburtz - Weeden & Co., LP, Research Division

Right. And last, last question. When do you think that's going to get back? What do we need to see to start seeing some improvement in the margins that you're booking new Subsea orders at?

Jack B. Moore

Well, I think we've been pretty clear that we're driving to make sure we generate the appropriate returns on the investments we have and also consider the risk that go with some of these projects in terms of our pricing philosophy. I hope that we -- as a result of seeing a lot of projects get booked here in the coming quarters that we'll see a different behavior relative to how people look at projects going forward. So time will tell, Geoff. But I think we're all confident that as some of these projects get booked and everyone's backlog gets bigger, that people get a little more selective and they get more focused on getting paid what these projects are worth.

Geoff Kieburtz - Weeden & Co., LP, Research Division

If we don't see a lot of slippage, do you think we could get there by the second half of next year?

Jack B. Moore

I'm hopeful that we will, by the end of next year, come out of this with much better pricing and backlog.

Operator

The next question comes from Mike Urban with Deutsche Bank.

Michael W. Urban - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

So you guys have made a lot of progress and got some great traction in penetrating the onshore North American market with respect to a lot of these unconventional plays. Well, it might be a little early in terms of where you play. But what we've been pretty consistently hearing is that the international unconventional opportunity has come along a lot faster than, I think, anyone would've expected. Is there anything that you're doing to lay the groundwork for that? Are you participating in any way? Just wondering how you're thinking about that opportunity as it pertains to Cameron.

Jack B. Moore

Well, the good thing is as we have a broad footprint around the world, whether it's Eastern Europe or whether it's China, whether it's Southern Cone, we've got a lot of touch points with where our infrastructure is. And we've been working with several customers on providing key components of what they're focused on, on expanding these resource plays. So yes, I think we're in a very good position to participate wherever it's going to evolve. And we're excited about what we're seeing.

Michael W. Urban - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

And some of the products and solutions and applications that you've developed for the North American market, are those reasonably comparable or applicable as you see it in some of these emerging plays internationally?

Jack B. Moore

For the most part, yes. I think some of the complexity that we've dealt with in North America is advanced, maybe a little faster than what we're seeing in some of the initial opportunities we're seeing internationally. But there's no reason to believe it won't get there ultimately. Obviously, it isn't going to happen overnight. And there's a lot of other folks that have to come to that party as well. But I think if you hear the pressure-pumping guys, kind of their commentary around the opportunities that are evolving around the world, we're very much in the same vein with what we're seeing.

Michael W. Urban - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Okay, great. And shifting gears a little bit, one of the things that we've liked about you guys kind of longer-term is the FPSO opportunity. Interesting to hear you kind of mention it at least a little bit in your commentary. What we see as the timing in terms of how that develops, when it becomes meaningful for you? And then kind of nearer-term, are you participating in some of the Brazil tenders that are out there?

Jack B. Moore

I think the answer is yes to all of it. We have some of the -- some of you have heard this. We've got about $1 billion outstanding in quotes and that number kind of moves around. But there's 18-plus kind of FPSOs in Brazil alone that we're looking at. Some obviously are going to be more near-term. And then obviously, the West Africa buildout. I mean, it's a very, very meaningful market for us over the coming years. And I think 2012 is going to be -- we're going to see some positive movement in terms of where we end up on that front.

Michael W. Urban - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

I'm assuming that would be more from an order, taking-order standpoint?

Jack B. Moore

Correct, yes.

Operator

The next question comes from Robin Shoemaker with Citigroup.

Robin E. Shoemaker - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

I wanted to ask about going back to -- I think you indicated you're quoting maybe 20 deepwater BOPs all together, something in that range. And in terms of whether or not these go forward, it seems like you've got the issue of rising costs of rental ships and less attractive payment terms. And then it seems like the shipyard's availability is kind of now pushed out to 2015 delivery. And what do you think is weighing most on the decisions, if you would venture an opinion on whether or not these drillship orders will go through?

Jack B. Moore

I would say it's just the cost associated with the inflation that these guys are seeing from where they were a year ago. I think that's a concern. I think everyone's very bullish in terms of where demand is going to take them. And you have a lot of folks that have gotten into the game. In Brazil alone, if you just look at the newbuilds that are going to evolve in Brazil, there's a lot of folks who think that's not even half enough of what they're going to need, in terms of where Brazil is going to -- to double their production over the course of the next 7, 8 years, it's going to be a huge undertaking relative to the infrastructure they need. So I think a lot of people are looking at great, long-term trend in demand for deepwater assets. Just the timing of when to buy them relative to are they getting the best option relative to pricing. So I think that really seems to be some of the concern we're hearing.

Robin E. Shoemaker - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

And ones that -- the 21 that you will probably be bidding on at some point in your future, what roughly is the timeframe where they would anticipate completion or the first deliveries out of those 21? I mean, is it 2016 or '17?

Jack B. Moore

Yes, some of them are out that far. I mean, you're looking at some of these going into new shipyards that are still being constructed and developed. So yes, some of it is going to take a lot longer than maybe a traditional yard out of Asia.

Operator

The next question comes from Tom Curran with Wells Fargo.

Tom Curran - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

I was wondering if you could give us some color on the indications your marketing guys are getting out there in the field of likely forthcoming offshore rig newbuild orders. In terms of for the next series we're likely to see, who does it look like that customers are going to be? Is it going to include exercise of options or going to be more weighted towards new or first-time buyers? Are you seeing certain national oil companies and their affiliates start to step it up? What's the near-term outlook there?

Jack B. Moore

We can -- probably it'd be best to get Jeff to get you some more clarity on it. But obviously, Brazil is going to be -- Petrobras is going to be the big user setting [ph]. But Seadrill, Moss, Songa, Rowan's got potential options, Odfjell. You've got the cat D semis that are being quoted for Norway. I'd say it's a little bit of across-the-board in terms of who all is looking at exercising options and getting in. You've got some China players that are obviously looking at getting more involved in the deepwater. It's really across-the-board. There's not any one, I think, one easy answer to your question.

Tom Curran - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

But is the bottom line takeaway that you expect ordering to continue as opposed to a gap opening up between now and when Petrobras moves forward with the next tranche of the remaining planned 21 newbuilds?

Jack B. Moore

We're not sensing that at all. We're not sensing that at all. I think there's still a lot of interest in exercising existing options and continuing to buildout the portfolio and upgrade their fleets. And I think there's -- that's going to continue to drive the activity going forward.

Tom Curran - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

And then turning, Jack, to the M&A pipeline, could you give us an update on how that's evolved over the last 3 months, the appetite you guys currently have and whether you've noticed any meaningful differences in terms of how bid-ask spreads have evolved for public versus private prospects?

Charles M. Sledge

Yes, it's Chuck. I'll answer that. I think really no movement in the last 3 months. We continue to work on a number of smaller deals that fills gaps that we have. We're relatively optimistic over the near-term what that could look like. You've seen a number of M&A deals done on the public side that incorporate big premiums. So those are not methodic and hard to say what each person's particular situation may be. But on the size of the deals that we kind of have on our radar screens, bid-ask is about where it was 3 months ago, no real change.

Tom Curran - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

And Chuck, what's the current wish list, both geographically and technologically for the M&A focus?

Jack B. Moore

I'm glad he's not asking the operating guy that.

Charles M. Sledge

Jack reminds me that's a closely guarded state secret. But there are places around the world. We had to increase our Surface presence in Brazil. You saw us do a transaction there. You saw us do a transaction in the processing world because there's some -- there's always new technology evolving there. There are a number of holes in our Valve line. You saw us, we were pretty clear we were interested in Masoneilan, with the Dresser organization, which is a control valve. If one of those came available, we'd certainly be interested. There are a number of other valve types that would interest us. So we have a pretty big wish list.

Operator

The next question comes from Kurt Hallead with RBC.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

In case you guys aren't in front of a screen like everything else, your stock is down 5% while a lot of the others are up 5% or 6%. So questions I may ask here are probably going to be directly related to that. Am I still on here? Look, I think -- I'm beginning to think here throughout the course of the call, a lot of investors still are somewhat confused. They think about the overall guidance both for maybe the fourth quarter, as well as for maybe some indications on 2012. So you may not have gone again into this call with the expectation of maybe having to go into some of this. But maybe you will, maybe you won't. But let me just ask you in this context. So Usan, right, in the fourth quarter, $70 million, no margin, you said it 1 million times so far. I think we got that. Is that Usan then -- is that it for Usan at the end of 2011? Does that roll over into 2012?

Charles M. Sledge

There's a very small piece in 2012. I mean, there's been no change in the Usan since we first talked about it in the first quarter, 0 has changed. It's just which quarter the revenue shift is being reflected in. No change.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Okay. And then I think if I heard you guys correctly earlier on in the call, you referenced that, using the phrase medium-term, that you would expect margins to be more reflective -- going forward that margins would be more reflective of the third quarter and not the expectation for the fourth quarter. And in that context, I'm assuming what you were referencing was the overall corporate margin. Did I get that right?

Charles M. Sledge

That is correct.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

So then the overall corporate margin, EBITDA margin in the fourth quarter being close to 19% or something along those lines, if I'm not mistaken?

Charles M. Sledge

No, no, no. We said the fourth quarter margin is going to be down from third quarter. And then -- but on a medium-term basis, you should think about the third quarter, which was 18.1%, being a more realistic number.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Okay, more realistic number going forward. So without giving specific 2012 guidance, you gave some sort of implicit 2012 guidance on EBITDA margin at the very least, right? Fair to say?

Charles M. Sledge

One could interpret it that way.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Okay. All right, great. So I think that probably will answer at least some investors' questions that I was getting this morning. Now I guess, what I would ask you now is just a couple of things. First, on pressure pumping. There's some concerns obviously on the capacity rates that are coming in for pressure pumpers. You guys see that as an opportunity from an infrastructure standpoint. How far behind is the infrastructure relative to the overall yield pressure pumping? And is this kind of like a 3- to 4-year kind of growth rate profile in your opinion for what you will provide to those shale plays?

Jack B. Moore

Kurt, I would say if we talk to the enterprise and these guys, they're very, very committed to what -- building on their programs in 2012. I can't really see beyond that because it's going to really depend on maybe what the exit rate is and activity in 2012. But the pressure pumping world is somewhat different than us because when we look at it from the pressure control equipment, a little smaller space in terms of our competitive landscape and really driven by our performance relative to the utilization of our equipment. And the quality of that service being provided on location is really the differentiator from us. So there's opportunity for us to grow and expand that market bandwidth from a Cameron enterprise. So that's kind of what we're seeing in our -- as we look forward, is more room to grow with what is existing today and going on today. Not necessarily seeing the market grow as much as our share of what we can participate in growing.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Okay. Kind of like addressing in the aftermarket business, where you guys referenced you're are going to get up to -- in your call, it's going to get up to 75% or potentially 100% of aftermarket, the same concept we could be looking at in terms of your opportunity in the shale plays or unconventional plays in North America. Is that fair?

Jack B. Moore

Well, if you just look at our traditional share in the surface wellhead business in the mid-30s. We're not anywhere near that in terms of our shale participation. So that's where we feel we have some opportunity to grow. And the investments we're making are allowing us to have some success there.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Okay. And then you referenced a little bit earlier, you made a comment about the FPSO market. It seems like it's going to be coming your way in 2012. Can you just refresh us a little bit here? What do you see as a potential market opportunity for Cameron on a revenue basis for FPSOs going forward?

Jack B. Moore

I'll tell you, Kurt, it's up. It can be as much as $150 million, depending on the surface and the valves, even some limited compression kits. It can be as low as $20 million, depending on what that FPSO structure is going to look like. And I think the good thing is that we're going to participate in every one of those opportunities. We have some level of opportunity with each one of them. And that's, again, the diversity of the portfolio that Cameron has the opportunity to play in.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Okay. And then just on the Subsea front, obviously you guys reference the pricing. Again, this has kind of been -- pricing has been an issue throughout the course of the year. So I don't necessarily get the read that there's incremental pricing issues. It just maybe continuing on a relatively low level. Is that a fair assessment?

Jack B. Moore

I think that's a fair assessment.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Okay. So no incremental pricing pressure on Subsea, okay.

Operator

The next question will come from William Conroy with Pritchard Capital Partners.

William Cornelius Conroy - Pritchard Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division

Real quick, Chuck, for you. Was there any contribution from Usan in Q3?

Charles M. Sledge

Any margin?

William Cornelius Conroy - Pritchard Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division

Revenue or margin.

Charles M. Sledge

Yes, there was about $60 million of revenue and it carried some margin.

William Cornelius Conroy - Pritchard Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division

Okay, that's helpful. And Jack, maybe one over to you. For Brazil specifically, can you give us a little bit of your thinking of how it plays out? And I'm really thinking not the market, but for Cameron specifically. And it's around your expansions, which you called out at Macaé and Taubaté, and how Vescon plays into all this? So how do you guys -- how do you see this playing out for Cameron?

Jack B. Moore

Well, for us, it's an enterprise play. I mean, we're not focused just on the Subsea infrastructure or just the Drilling infrastructure. We have a very healthy Valve & Measurement business that we can expand in-country based on the upstream and downstream spend that they're going to have. Onshore and on dry completions that we're seeing, not just with Petrobras but with some of the other independent or international operators and independent operators locally, we see some strong opportunities there. And that's where Vescon really gave us, I think, a very good headstart in terms of giving us existing infrastructure, people, relationships, the ability to build on what they currently have. And we're going to -- we're obviously investing in that infrastructure and capacity as well. And we're doing more than just Macaé and Taubaté, we're expanding our Jacaré facility with Control Systems and in Process Systems. We're putting in our R&D facility in Brazil that's really going to focus us on some of the deepwater challenges that Petrobras are facing and their partners are facing with some of the deepwater processing challenges that they are committed to move forward with. So there's a number of fronts that we're able to participate on in Brazil. So it's a pretty broad enterprise approach overall.

William Cornelius Conroy - Pritchard Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division

All right. If I could sneak in one follow-up, it would be, you lined out a pretty aggressive outlook for big Subsea projects. How are you positioned if you get an appropriate Cameron share in those? In other words, do you have the capacity?

Jack B. Moore

Yes. I mean, the one thing I think we are conscious of is biting off what we can chew. And the risk that go with some of these projects are, given where they are at, can be very daunting. And you have make sure that your resources are capable of handling those challenges, especially those that require a lot of in-country content. So yes, we're very focused on -- we're not going after all of them. We are -- we have, I think, been very clear to you all that we are going to pick and choose some of our battles. And we've been disciplined in how we've approached that opportunities that have been out there over the course of the last 18 months. And we're going to do the same over the course of the next 18 months.

Operator

I will turn the call back over to our management for closing comments.

Jeffrey G. Altamari

Thank you, LaTonya, and thanks to all of you for joining us this morning.

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

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