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Executives

Tim Page – SVP and CFO

Victor Garcia – CEO

Analysts

Greg Lewis – Credit Suisse

John Stilmar – Suntrust

Helane Becker – Dahlman Rose

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

CAI International, Inc. (CAP) Q3 2011 Earnings Call October 27, 2011 5:00 PM ET

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the CAI Q3 2011 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. (Operator instructions)

As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Tim Page, you may begin.

Tim Page

Good afternoon and thank you for joining us today. Certain statements made during this conference call may be forward-looking and are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations, including but not limited to, economic conditions, expected results, customer demand, increased competition and others.

We refer you to the documents that CAI International has filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its annual report on Form 10-K, its quarterly reports filed on Form 10-Q and its reports on Form 8-K. These documents contain additional important factors that could cause actual results to differ from current expectations and from forward-looking statements contained in this conference call.

I’ll now turn the call over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Victor Garcia.

Victor Garcia

Good afternoon. We are very pleased with our third quarter results with quarterly year-over-year revenue growth of 64% and earnings per fully diluted share of 40% to $0.70 per share. Compared to the second quarter of 2011, this past quarter resulted in revenue increasing by 15% and earnings per share increasing by 27%. For the nine months period we reported year-over-year revenue growth of 70% and earnings per fully diluted share of 91% to a $1.89 per share. Our results during the third quarter were driven by the continued strong utilization of our fleet and the new containers we delivered from the factories to our customers during the quarter.

Utilization in the third quarter remained at 98% consistent with the level achieved during the second quarter of this year. During the quarter, we leased to customers 34,000 TEUs of new equipment including of 7,400 TEUs of refrigerated containers representing a total of $101 million of investments. Most of these units have been placed on long-term leases that will generate revenue and cash flow for many years. We have been able to achieve higher average lease rates for the new containers that we leased out this year compared to the lease rates prevailing during the comparable period in 2010, and as a result, we saw our average per diem on our owned fleet increased by 19% compared to the third quarter of 2010.

Our results also continue to benefit from the secondary sales market which has remained strong throughout the year. This quarter, we generated $3.8 million in income from the disposition of containers. Our average gain on sales during the third quarter was 20% greater than in the second quarter, and we sold 13% more TEU this quarter than in the second quarter.

We expect that the secondary market will remain strong in the fourth quarter and then we should continue to report ongoing income from the disposition of containers. Our operating margins have improved as we have maintained tight control over our overhead costs and that benefited from the relatively low storage and handling expenses and ongoing income from disposition of containers.

This past quarter, our operating income margin was 56% compared to 50% during the third quarter of 2010. Year-to-date our operating income margin is 64% compared to 42% for the first nine months of 2010. Although, we have been able to benefit from leasing out most of the containers we have ordered this year, demand from our customers during the third quarter for new containers has been lower than expected during this seasonally strong period of time. We believe our customers have been focused on reducing costs by limiting new container additions whether owned or leased in light of lower freight rates compared to last year and the uncertainties around the U.S. and European economies that prevailed during the third quarter.

Therefore we believe shipping lines in containers list have reduced the level of new equipments orders during the third quarter. As a result, we estimate that total shipping companies and lesser factory inventory levels have declined from approximately 870,000 TEUs at the beginning of the third quarter to approximately 620,000 TEUs at the end of the third quarter. This represents approximately 2% of the estimated 29 million TEU of total containers in operations. The current level of factory inventory does not seem to be excessive and gives us optimism that improved economic performance in the U.S. and Europe in 2012 combined with normal container fleet attrition will result in strong overall demand for additional containers next year.

Our expectation is that we will lease out $50 million of new equipment in the fourth quarter. We do expect some of our older assets to be returned during the remainder of the year which will result in the customer decline in utilization during the fourth quarter. However, we believe overall utilization will remain strong by historical standards and that many of these units that are returned are likely to be sold into secondary market at attractive prices.

In summary, we have enjoyed spectacular revenue growth and earnings growth over the past year doubling our net income. We have good business momentum going into the fourth quarter and with a relatively tight supply of factory inventory, improved growth within the U.S. and European economies and continued strong trade amongst less developed regions, we are expecting a continuation of growth of our business in 2012.

I’ll now turn the call over to Tim Page, our Chief Financial Officer to review the financial results for the quarter.

Tim Page

Thank you, Victor and good afternoon everyone. Earlier today we reported 2011 third quarter net income attributable to common stockholders of $13.6 million, an increase of 49% compared to the third quarter of 2010. And as we indicated in our earnings release, a record quarterly results for CAI.

Net income per fully diluted share increased 40 % to $0.70 per fully diluted share on an average share count of 19.6 million shares, which is an increase of 8% in the average share count compared to the third quarter of 2010.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2011 net income attributable to common stockholders was $37.3 million, compared to $17.9 million for the same period last year, an increase of 109%.

Earnings per fully diluted share increased from $0.99 per share in the first nine months of 2010 to $1.89 per fully diluted share for the same period this year, an increase of 91%.

Total revenue in the third quarter was $33 million, compared to $20.1 million for the same period last year, an increase of 64% and 15% higher than what it was in second quarter of 2011.

Container rental revenue was $27.6 million this quarter, compared to $17.2 million in the third quarter of last year, an increase of 61% and 12% higher than the second quarter of this year. This increase in container rental revenue is the result of a 33% increase in the number of TEUs in our owned fleet, on leased to customers compared to the third quarter of last year and a 19% increase in our average per diem rate for TEU for the quarter compared to the same period last year.

Management fee income during the third quarter was $3.1 million, an increase of 37% compared to the same quarter last year, again resulting from higher average per diem rates, as well as higher disposition gains on the sale of investor owned and used container equipment.

Total operating expense in the third quarter was $11.3 million, compared to $10 million in the third quarter of last year, an increase of 13%. This $1.3 million increase in operating expense is primarily attributable to $3.1 million increase in depreciation expense as a result of increased investment in our own fleet.

Net cash operating expenses actually decreased by $1.9 million in the third quarter compared to the third quarter of 2010. Most of the decrease being attributable to the increased gain of the sale of used equipments. Marketing, general and administrative expenses were $5.3 million for the quarter compared to $5 million for the third quarter of last year, and were $200,000 less than the $5.5 million we reported for the second quarter of 2011.

Net operating margin for the first nine months of 2011 was 64%, compared to 42% for the same period last year. This 22 percentage point improvement can be attributed to the increased investments we have made in our owned fleet, higher average per diem rates, improved fleet utilization as well as the leverage we gain by holding marketing, general and administrative expenses relatively flat during a time that revenue increased by 70%.

Interest expense in the quarter was $4.3 million, an increase of $2.9 million over the same period last year and reflects the impact of the $432 million of investment in new equipment we have made in our own fleet over the past 12 months.

In conclusion, we’re very pleased with our results this quarter particularly in light of the macroeconomic uncertainty we have been faced with. As for next year, world container trade is forecasted to grow mid to high single-digits. Consequently, we’re optimistic that this expected growth will lead to a continuation of the high utilization rates we are currently enjoying and will result in a need for the shipping companies to continue to invest in new containers to handle the projected increase volumes of trade.

That concludes our comments. Operator, please open the call for questions.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Greg Lewis of Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Greg Lewis – Credit Suisse

Yes, thank you and good afternoon.

Victor Garcia

Hi Greg.

Greg Lewis – Credit Suisse

Hi Victor. I guess my first question is regarding the buybacks. At this stage, have any shares been bought back and if so, what’s remaining on the existing buyback?

Victor Garcia

We haven’t purchased any shares yet under the guidelines that we did the buyback program, we couldn’t do it until we released earnings. So we couldn’t do it in a quiet period. So no shares have been purchased at this point.

Greg Lewis – Credit Suisse

Okay, great. and then just looking at the balance sheet, if we look at like net debt to assets or debt to equity, that’s risen pretty sharply as you’ve deployed of lot of capital this year alone, I guess it was a record year in terms of CapEx, I guess as I kind of look at debt to equity I get about I guess, its what’s about 2.4 times, what sort of level are you comfortable with from that, from what your debt to equity standpoint or do you look at it, or do you look leverage in a different way?

Victor Garcia

So we do look at leverage in terms of the debt to equity. Obviously we look at the type of business that we’re booking in terms of how comfortable we are with the tenure and the quality of the customer base in how much leverage we’re going to take but as a guideline, we’re looking at an optimal level of somewhere around the three times.

Greg Lewis – Credit Suisse

Okay.

Victor Garcia

In debt to equity.

Greg Lewis – Credit Suisse

Okay, perfect. And then just one final question, you mentioned that I guess what maybe 25%, 20% of the boxes you placed in the third quarter, I guess were reefer boxes. I guess earlier today we heard that standard dry boxes were around $2,300 down from about $2,400 maybe one, two months ago. So can you talk a little about in terms of pricing for reefers, where are reefer box prices trending, where are they today, where were they maybe three to six months ago?

Victor Garcia

We’re really just now going into the reefers season, so it’s a little early. I would say that what we have noticed is that there have been a number of leasing companies who have focused on the reefer business and so it has become a highly competitive area. It’s still early in the season to know exactly how it’s going to play out but it has been an area where it’s been competitive.

Greg Lewis – Credit Suisse

Okay, but so in terms of would you be able to revise like a new bill price on say a 24 reefer?

Victor Garcia

Most of the reefers are 40 foot reefers. They are averaging somewhere in 17,500 to 18,000 a unit.

Greg Lewis – Credit Suisse

17,500 to 18,000 a unit. Okay, perfect. Thank you very much for the time Victor and congratulations on a good quarter.

Victor Garcia

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from John Stilmar of Suntrust. Your line is open.

John Stilmar – Suntrust

Yes, thank you. Good evening gentlemen.

Victor Garcia

Hi John.

John Stilmar – Suntrust

Hi, just really quickly, in terms of the boxes that are coming back that you’re going to be selling in the fourth quarter. Can you talk to us about the average each or roughly just kind of profile of what those boxes might be and then how you think about of the disposition versus releasing those containers?

Victor Garcia

Sure. What we have noticed so far is that most of the units that have come back have been units that are been 10 years and older. So some of our older, much older assets. It’s also bid primarily under significant percentage of them have been on some sale leaseback transaction that we would have already thought the customers would have brought back the units. So we’re seeing our midlife assets largely stay on lease. And we’re not seeing any kind of pickup there. And even for some of these older assets, we’re really looking for to see the condition of the assets and how much repair work would need to bring them up to condition, when we consider whether or not to put them back on lease. And there are some opportunities, we have some good clients to put some of these older assets back on lease which gives us good feeling. In some cases at higher rates than what the leases that they are coming off.

John Stilmar – Suntrust

Okay, great. And then just kind of to tie back to the previous question with regards to the reefer market. We’ve been talking about reefers now in several calls and now for several quarters. Had they’ve gotten almost too hot and too competitive or – and how would you calibrate the degree of competition. Is it rational competition or is it kind of past that peak to where it’s almost a little bit – makes you a little bit nervous, I am just not sure, I was wondering if you could kind of give us a little bit guide to us kind of where we are in competitive landscape for that particular segment? Thank you.

Victor Garcia

Sure. I don’t think that the pricing has gone to a position of being irrational. I think the returns have still been adequate. I think what we are seeing is there are more people bidding on the same transaction and so the ability to get a premium on a new investment is probably less. So I don’t want to characterize that the market is gone to a point of irrationality, I don’t think that’s the case but it clearly is when the dry end businesses has been quiet in the third quarter, most of the people have been shifting their focus over to the refrigerator side and that’s what we’re seeing.

John Stilmar – Suntrust

Okay, great. And I just had one other follow-up. In terms of your – the amount of inventories you guys have committed to but not yet placed. Where would you think that inventory level is today, is it sort of below where you might have been given the volatility we’ve had over this quarter. Is it kind of a pre-recessionary kind of levels, is it defensive, can you give us some kind of qualification of what that inventory level looks like to staying? That is my last question. Thank you.

Victor Garcia

Sure. I will characterize that our inventory level today is below what we would expected to be at this time of the year. I think we’ve been fortunate that we’ve leased out a lot of the inventory that we had ordered earlier in the year and we haven’t seen a level of increase that would give us reason to add more to the fleet at this point. So we’re below what we would normally want to be, and it’s something we have to consider because we have to more optimistic about next year unless to consider at what point and what degree we make additional investments going into next year.

John Stilmar – Suntrust

All right, thank you.

Victor Garcia

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Helane Becker of Dahlman Rose. Your line is open.

Helane Becker – Dahlman Rose

Thanks very much operator and hi guys.

Victor Garcia

Hi Helane.

Helane Becker – Dahlman Rose

Just a couple of questions, one with respect to the managed and the owned fleet. Do you have a goal for where you would like that to be, I think it was something like I don’t know, 53/47 at the end of the quarter in September, and I am just kind of wondering what your goals are if any?

Victor Garcia

Sure. We want to keep balance of owned and managed because we think as we grow and way to improve the returns for our shareholders is to supplement our own fleet with the earnings coming from the managed fleet. I think over long-term 50/50 mix somewhere in that range is the target where we want to be, what I would say the caveat to that is we want to continue to be in the position to meet our customers demand. So we’re going to continue invest in containers and as the opportunities come to either manage our fleet for somebody else or to sell a portion of our own fleet to another party, we will look at that, but we’re trying to keep the decisions on both of those fronts separate because we don’t want to lose opportunities that we find attractive simply because we don’t have the investor demand at that moment to sell the portfolio to.

Helane Becker – Dahlman Rose

Okay. And then do you have CapEx thoughts for 2012, I mean you know you commented that you are optimistic about the outlook and then you just answered the last question by saying that you want to think about when to invest for next year, but what about thinking about the amount you are going to invest for next year?

Victor Garcia

We do have some early thoughts. We’re still going through the budgeting process for next year with our Board. And we typically have not provided a specific number that we say that we’re targeting to, but I would say if you look at 2012 as a recovery year, and if you look at demand potentially increasing as world trade accelerates a little bit. We would expect to do something comparable to this year, give or take several percentage points.

Helane Becker – Dahlman Rose

Okay, that’s a fair enough answer. Just in terms of mix, can you talk about like how we should think about I mean I know the seasonal issues with dry versus reefers, but can you think about what or could you talk a little bit about how we should think about the mix of percent invested in both?

Victor Garcia

Sure. I think over the long-term we would probably see something in the order of 30% of our investment value being in the refrigerated segment. However whether or not we invest that percentage a higher percentage or a lower percentage next year is really going to depend on how we see the opportunities in each sector and how attractive those opportunities are. So although we have a long-term goal and trying to balance the portfolio, in anyone year it’s going to fluctuate. And so we’re going to look next year as we make our buying decision throughout the year as to what we believe is relative benefit is if one container type versus another container type.

Helane Becker – Dahlman Rose

Okay, and then my last question is a balance sheet question, if I look at the allowance for doubtful accounts, it declined from year-end to the third quarter but the revenues were up so much more on a year-on-year basis dramatically. So can you just maybe explain why that would be?

Tim Page

Okay, we did have a recovery of a bad debt expense earlier in the year which reduced that. The other thing I would tell you is we have not seen a material change in the collection pattern of our customers. So we don’t have a reason to be increasing our bad debt reserve. And in general our focus has been to try to focus on the major shipping lines which we believe are the long-term staying power. And have been able to make it through the market cycle. So we feel pretty good about our reserves, where we are and from what we’re seeing from our customers.

Helane Becker – Dahlman Rose

Okay. And then one last question, just the tax rate question. It was 18.2% for the nine months but 20.6% for the quarter. So I was kind of thinking it should be trending down during the year, not necessarily up. Was there a jurisdiction thing we should think about?

Victor Garcia

So, I think what we would have at the beginning at the year thought the same thing, I think what we have seen is that the profitability coming out of the U.S. side of our business which is some of where we had our older assets. Those are the assets that we’re disposing up. And we are getting higher gains on those assets than we would have expected because of how strong the markets been. So the relative proportion of income that we’re getting from the U.S. has been higher than we expected even in the second quarter, so we had to make an adjustment up to the estimated tax rate for the year.

Helane Becker – Dahlman Rose

Okay, thank you.

Victor Garcia

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Sal Vitale of Sterne, Agee. Your line is open.

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

Hello all, a good quarter.

Victor Garcia

Thanks Sal.

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

So just a follow-up on the last question asked on the tax rate. So did you – did I missed it earlier, did you give guidance as to what the fourth quarter tax rate should be and what we should think about for 2012?

Victor Garcia

Yes, as far as the tax rates for this year, the current percentage that we have which is 18% thereabout is our best guess to what the full-year tax would be.

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

Okay.

Victor Garcia

The tax rate for next year. We would expect it as we continue to invest overseas and we gain additional profitability overseas that that tax rate will come down. And all things being equal, we would assume something like a 3% type decline overtime.

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

Okay, that’s reasonable. And then just if could just touch base on a few things you said earlier, just a clarification, you said that you will now lease out $50 million of new equipment in 4Q or was it 50,000 TEUs?

Victor Garcia

$50 million.

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

$50 million. Okay, just comparing I guess the comments made at the last call. On the last call I think you had said that the year-to-date CapEx at that point was $360 million. And now that’s – so we should be comparing that for the $386 million now, all right for apples-to-apples?

Victor Garcia

The $386 million is what we spent on equipment from January 1st to September 30th.

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

Okay.

Victor Garcia

We think its comparable.

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

Okay. So then at this point given and that’s as of today I guess year-to-date rather than, is that be under September 30.

Victor Garcia

As of September 30th.

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

Okay, so then there is a full quarter left, what should we think at this point like I guess it would be reefer investment rather than dry investment, what you would think I mean it sounds like $400 million should be easily obtainable and potentially could we be looking at $450 million for the full year this year?

Victor Garcia

I don’t think we’ll be at $450 million but I think something around or north of $400 million would be reasonable estimate.

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

Okay, that makes sense. So I guess that set within my next question, and I just have one other clarification sorry, before I get to that. Did you say that – did you give a number on the number of boxes would be coming back in 4Q and you plan to disposal them?

Victor Garcia

We didn’t.

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

Okay.

Victor Garcia

And I thought something that I think is the way I would characterize is the way we characterized in the press release. We don’t expect the damaged [ph] box being returned. We do expect the normal as the (inaudible) but the exact number for how much that will come in, we have a feeling for directionally how much would be but there is no specific number.

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

Okay, so typically 4Q and a normal year, what is the typical sequential percentage point decline in utilization from 3Q to 4Q?

Victor Garcia

We would probably expect something like a 2% to 3% decline from beginning to end.

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

Beginning to end, okay. But again if you dispose those as soon as they come in then that is effective utilization. Is that the way it works?

Victor Garcia

Obviously if we dispose off assets that will come out of the fleet.

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

Right.

Victor Garcia

But we always dispose off assets. So I would still think that the box beyond what we dispose it but that there will be some decline in utilization.

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

Okay.

Victor Garcia

It will be a normal not to have a decline in utilization over that season.

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

Right, okay so its normal seasonality, you’re saying okay. I guess just speaking of the full-year CapEx, it sounds like what you’re saying is that you went from 870,000 TEUs in total now, I am talking about the sales [ph] inventory, now it’s down to about 620,000 and that’s globally. How would think about I mean what’s your view on when we could start to see a ramp up again in dry container watering, is that have to be after 1Q?

Victor Garcia

I don’t think it’s based on a particular quarter, I would think that everyone will be looking at the level of activity, level of inquiry that our customers have, what kind of hiccups they are doing to gain some confidence of increasing waters. You’ll have to look at the momentum. I would assume that as we get into some part of the latter half of the first quarter that all things being equal to be some pickup in inquiries going into the year but we’ll have to see how the market plays out.

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

Okay. And did you say earlier that you expect that would be reasonable to expect that next year’s total CapEx would be a few percentage points higher or lower than this year’s?

Victor Garcia

I would say in general we think that the level of investment that we’ve done this year is a level of investment that we’re comfortable trying to continue to pursue. Whether or not we would invest at this pace more or less, it’s going to really be dependent on economic conditions and what we’re seeing on return opportunity. So we don’t want to be in a position trying to provide some guidance on the level of investment because we’re not in a position at this point to pinpoint exactly what that level of investment is, but we do think that we’re going to be active in the market. We think that market will be there next year and that leasing would still continue to be an attractive place for our companies to access containers. And we want to be in a position to take our proportion in share. So how that translates into a specific dollar number it’s a little bit too early to talk.

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

Okay. And then just the last question if I can, I noticed that the balance sheet, the finance investment of direct finance leases rose pretty significantly from $11 million to $30 million, and I guess that was also reflected in the income statement, you went from $0.5 million to $1.6 million. How do we think about think, does that mean that if I think forward to 2012 that you should see something like $9 million or something like that, a finance lease income just extrapolating from the fourth quarter forward?

Tim Page

We reclassified one particular lease that we entered into a finance lease in the quarter which increased the income in that quarter more than what we expected. So I wouldn’t expect that we would be reporting the same level of income on that one line item as in the fourth quarter but it has – our level of investment has increased significant by the fact that you see the DFLs [ph] are out there. So there will be a significant increase from what did we had in the first half of the year but probably not at the level of $1.6 million that we had.

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

Okay. It would be some number greater than $0.5 million but lower than $1.6 million something like that.

Tim Page

Correct.

Sal Vitale – Sterne, Agee & Leach

Okay, thank you very much.

Tim Page

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And I’m showing no other questions in queue at this time.

Victor Garcia

Well thank you everyone for participating in our call and we appreciate the interest in our company and we look forward to our next earnings call when we report our full year results.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen this concludes the conference for today. You may all disconnect and have a wonderful day.

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