10 Scary Charts - October 31 Update

by: Ted Kavadas

(Please note this post is the latest update to a series of articles, the last being on July 21.)

I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they depict such a tenuous situation now – 28 months after the official (as per the 9-20-10 NBER announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective. I regularly discuss many troubling characteristics of our economy in this EconomicGreenfield blog.

All of these charts (except one, as noted) are from The Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

The following 8 charts are from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 10-19-11):

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The Federal Deficit (last updated 10-14-11):

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Federal Net Outlays (last updated 10-14-11):

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State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-29-11):

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Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 10-12-11):

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Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 10-12-11):

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M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 10-27-11):

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Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 10-7-11):

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This next chart is from the CalculatedRisk.com blog post of 10-7-11, titled “September Unemployment Report...” and it shows (in red) the relative length and depth of this downturn and subsequent recovery from an employment perspective:

This last chart is of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and it depicts broad-based economic activity (last updated 10-24-11):

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I will update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.