Red Robin Earnings Performance Gives Slight Edge To Longs

Nov. 3.11 | About: Red Robin (RRGB)

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (NASDAQ:RRGB) is due to report Q3 results after the bell tonight, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are expecting a profit of $0.22 per share on revenue of $206 million.

RRGB is split with its share reaction between the extended-hours and the regular session. It has reversed its post-earnings move 12 times, widened 12 times, and put up one flat after-hours move followed by a deep next-day decline.

Looking deeper into the data, the stock has posted 13 declines in response to earnings news, extending that move five times or 38% of the time. Also, one flat evening share move was turned into a double-digit plunge the following day.

Longs will note that the stock's 11 post-earning gains included seven quarters of sharper next-day same-direction action, or widening events recorded 64% of the time.

  • On Aug. 11, 2011, the stock rose 9.3% during after-hours trading following an earnings report that beat the Street view. The next-day gain was cut to 4.4%.
  • On May 19, 2011, RRGB leaped 12.1% after topping Q1 expectations. The stock added sharply to its upside the next day, ending the May 20 regular session up 23%.
  • On Feb. 17, 2011, RRBG soared 10.5% in after-hours action after topping Q4 expectations. Traders added to the upside the following day, boosting the shares 12.5% by the close on Feb. 18.
  • On November 4, 2010, the stock tumbled 14.6% in evening action after missing with results and pulling guidance. Shares fell a trimmer 7.9% the next day.
  • On August 12, 2010, the stock gained 1.6% in evening hours after initially falling on an EPS miss. Shares fell 5.4% the next day.
  • On May 20, 2010, RRGB slid 9.8% in evening trading after beating Q1 earnings expectations but also setting guidance below Street estimates. The stock added to its downside the following day, closing the May 21 regular session down 14.1%.
  • On Feb. 18, 2010, RRGB ended the after-hours session up 0.5% despite just missing Q4 sales estimates. It offered FY10 sales guidance that topped the Street view. During the next day's regular session, the stock closed up 4.5%.
  • On Nov. 5, 2009, RRGB ended evening trading flat after meeting earnings expectations but coming in shy on revenue targets. The stock tumbled 15.7% in the Nov. 6 regular session.
  • On Aug. 13, 2009, the stock slipped 0.6% after Q2 results declined vs the year-ago period. Shares rebounded to gain 2.2%.
  • On May 21, 2009, the stock fell 7.9% after a revenue miss. Shares tumbled 17.3% the next day.
  • On Nov. 6, 2008, RRGB declined 1.2% in after-hours trading after missing revenue expectations and setting guidance below the Street view. Sentiment turned positive on the stock the following day, and RRGB closed the Nov. 7 regular session up 5.1%.
  • On Aug. 14, 2008, the stock declined 3.6% during evening trading after RRGB missed with revenue and lowers outlook. The loss was trimmed to 0.7% the next day.
  • On May 20, 2008, RRGB slid 7.3% in after-hours trading after reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings and setting mixe guidance. The stock added to its downside the next day, ending the May 21 regular session off 9.4%.
  • No trade data was recorded for the preliminary Q4 results on Jan. 16, 2008.
  • On Nov. 8, 2007, RRGB advanced 2.7% in after-hours trading after posting Q3 results largely in line with expectations. The stock firmed higher in the Nov. 9 regular session, rising 6.8% by the close.
  • On Aug. 16, 2007, the stock gained 7% in the evening session after topping with sales, sees FY sales in line to higher. The gain was trimmed to 4.6% the next day.
  • On May 25, 2007, the stock was up 6.2% in the evening hours after the company reported revenue up over the year-ago period and earnings flat. The gain expanded to 8.3% the next day.
  • On Feb. 22, 2007, the stock jumped 10.1% in the evening hours after reporting its latest results and guidance that straddled the Street view. The gain was reined in to 7.5% the next day.
  • On November 2, 2006, RRGB plunged 23.9% in after hours when the company met Q3 sales estimates but issued disappointing guidance. The shares weakened further, closing the next day session down 26%.
  • On Aug. 10, 2006, the stock ended just in the red, down 0.1% on word the company topped and guided in line to higher. It rebounded to put up an 8.1% gain the next day.
  • On May 18, 2006, shares were down 4.3% in the night session after RRGB reported in line with Q1 revenue but guided below Street view for Q2. The decline did narrow the next day, with shares ending down 1.5%.
  • On Feb. 16, 2006, shares rallied 6.1% on word that the company topped with its latest figures and guided higher. The gain stretched to 8.3% the next day.
  • On November 3, 2005, RRGB gained 4.6% in after-hours trading despite just missing Q3 expectations and guiding Q4 and full year EPS below Street views. The shares strengthened further the next day, rallying to close up 10.4% during the day.
  • On May 19, 2005, RRGB sank 1.9% in evening trading after besting Q1 estimates and guiding Q2 below the Street. It reversed direction in the May 20 regular session, closing up 3.6%.
  • On Feb. 14, 2005, RRGB fell 3.8% in after-hours trading after Q4 results fell shy of forecasts. It widened that move in the Feb. 15 regular session, sliding 4.1%.
  • RRGB fell 3.1% on the night of Nov. 4, 2004, after besting Q3 targets but guiding Q4 below the Street. It narrowed its downside in the Nov. 5 regular session, edging down 0.4%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.