Earnings Season has been somewhat unpredictable this quarter, with market reaction depending on Europe rather than company performance. There have been several companies that announced solid earnings that beat expectations and trended lower such as; Harley Davidson (HOG), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) and Sirius XM (SIRI), among others. Each of these stocks trended lower after announcing earnings that beat expectations. Although strong earnings from companies such as Google (GOOG) Caterpillar (CAT) and McDonald's (MCD) have helped push the market higher, our economy is still heavily dependent on news out of Europe. Therefore, I believe a stock's reaction to earnings is more dependent on the news out of Europe than a company's quarterly progress and future outlook. However, I have noticed that nearly every company that beat expectations and trended lower posted very large gains when the market recovered and trended higher. With this in mind, I have listed 5 companies that will announce earnings this week that will most likely exceed expectations. I believe that each of the 5 stocks would make great picks, but investors must remember to hold if earnings are good regardless of initial reaction.
Priceline (PCLN) will announce earnings on Monday Nov. 7 and is expected to post an EPS of $9.30. The EPS expectation is on the high-end of the company's guidance, and some have wondered if the company can meet this high expectation. However the company has met or exceeded expectations nearly every quarter of the last three years, therefore, I have no reason to believe that PCLN cannot achieve this goal. Priceline usually has a strong reaction to its earning report, and has posted gains of nearly 10% after three of its last four earnings reports. I believe that we can expect a similar reaction on Tuesday after earnings are released because of its modest position. The stock has posted gains of 16% over the last month, but it's still 7.5% off its 52 week high of $561.88. Therefore, with this quarter expected to be the best in its history, I believe the gains could be large. However, oversees growth will be the contributing factor to decide if the company exceeds expectations. During its most recent quarter, 50% of the revenue came from oversees, which was an increase of 90% year-over-year. The stock has been trading in a consistent range since May, and if earnings are strong, it could send this stock in a further uptrend much higher than its current 52 week high. And since the company rarely misses earnings, I see no reason to believe it will fail or that expectations won't be met.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) will announce earnings on Wednesday, and is expected to post an EPS of $0.34 a $0.03 drop year-over-year. Cisco lost 25% of its value over the last year, but has gained 21% over the last three months, while other stocks have trended lower. Cisco has shown promise in some areas, but weakness in others. The company's revenue has increased during each of the last four quarters, however, its income has declined during each of the last three quarters. Income has fallen by large margins, including a 35% year-over-year loss during its last quarter, despite a 3% gain in revenue. I believe that expectations are achievable and that investors are expecting very little from this company. Because of its stock position and a price-to-earnings ratio of only 15, I believe that if CSCO were to miss, the damage would be minimal. The industry appears to be getting stronger, and CSCO hasn't given any indication that it will miss expectations. Since CSCO has been very consistent over a period of many years, I believe that CSCO is a safe investment that should post modest gains following its earnings report.
General Motors (GM) will announce earnings on November 9 with an expected EPS of $0.96. GM has beat expectations each of the last two quarters, yet investors have been hard to impress. Following the last three quarters, the stock has trended lower, and investors have been slow to react to any of GM's great monthly sales during the last quarter. The company appears to have had a great quarter full of encouraging news. In fact, it has announced a new deal with the UAW, its credit rating has been increased, and all 10 analysts that cover the stock have it rated as a buy. Yet despite these facts, along with high sales, the stock has lost 36% of its value YTD with pessimism surrounding the global economy. And since logic appears to be lost when it comes to this stock, I am not comfortable saying that it will trend higher, although it should. However, earnings are sure to be solid and at a price of $23.61. I can find little downside in purchasing this stock which should post large gains in the near future.
Fossil (FOSL) will announce earnings on Tuesday, with an expected EPS of $1.03. Fossil has recently pulled back with a loss of 27%, since July 22, along with its expected EPS dropping from $1.24 I believe the stock could be presenting a substantial amount of value. The company has been on a roll as of late, with 4 straight quarters of exceeding expectations, including double digit revenue growth year-over-year. And Fossil has a strong history of exceeding or meeting expectations; this has occurred on a consistent basis over the last three years. Earning expectations are very modest considering this company's performance, and I believe it's perfectly positioned to post huge gains if it exceeds expectations and beat.
Kohl's (KSS) is one of the most consistently growing companies of the last three years, and it will announce earnings with an expected EPS of $0.78. It's almost a sure play that KSS will beat or meet expectations, as it's consistently accomplished over the last three years. In fact, the company has already announced that it expects EPS in the high range of its guidance, which was $0.73-$0.79. Analysts have been fairly accurate in predicting KSS earnings, therefore, I expect the company to announce $0.79 or possibly $0.80. But either way, the stock usually has a positive reaction to earnings and since retail stocks have trended higher over the last month I expect KSS reaction to be better than usual.
Disclaimer: As with any investment, due diligence is required. The opinions in this article are not intended to be used to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy. All EPS estimates were obtained from CNBC along with past performance.