First, I suspect that we may see a meaningful "dip" and "pullback" between now and November 23rd. How do I know? I don't for sure, but that's the way the markets have been working, especially since the May 2011 highs.
One of my favorite technical analysts, Arthur Hill from stockcharts.com, recently looked at the market from both a technical and fundamental perspective and it all looked credible to me. He wrote:
This [technical and fundamental current analysis] suggests that the S&P 500 is in a bigger downtrend at the moment, which opens up two possibilities. First, the S&P 500 could be in the midst of an ABC correction.
The second possibility he mentioned involved a "really bearish scenario" in which the S&P 500 rallies for another month or so and then we experience a corrective "retracement" to the lows of the summer of 2010.
"The 50-61.80% retracement zone and 2010 lows mark a target zone around 1000-1050", Mr. Hill concludes.
Whether you look at the economy and the stock market from a technical or fundamental view, in my opinion it all suggests it won't be long until a good-sized correction ensues, although we may have to wait a month or two.
With consumer spending anemic, "real" consumer and investor confidence floundering, and million of people in the Western World either under-employed or unemployed, the fundamentals do not look promising.
The last several months of mammoth market volatility indicates that the "Big Market Movers" and the "Market Mavens" are trying to make money whether the market is up or down.
After all that's what hedge fund do best, true? The biggest of the hedge funds know how to make profits by going both "long" and "short" the market. With computer-driven "High-Frequency Trading" capacities, this trend may continue.
It's fascinating, as the writers at Wall Street Unlocked have pointed out time and time again, "Almost all of our investment [stock market] insiders were selling when the stock market topped out in October 2007. They could sense that the stock market was overpriced and set for a fall."
Just look at the 2-year chart of the S&P 500 below and you can see how many times the market has topped out and then fallen sharply, giving hedge funds and other large investment pools a chance to go "short" and make even more profits.
Can you recognize a "pattern" of volatility consisting of "higher highs" followed by sharp corrections?
These kind of charts also indicate the "pattern" of how the "Smart Money" with the most money and influence evidently goes about their process of moving in and out of the major indices.
Most of the sharp moves up or down have been accompanied by emotionally-charged headlines on fundamental factors that would justify either a market rally or a market "plunge".
That's why "technical Indicators", "fundamental analysis", and "pattern recognition" in looking at charts and paying attention to the 50 day and 200 day moving averages can be very helpful to the discerning investor at the current moment.
Stocks to Scoop Up when the Next Impressive Correction Occurs
Notice I didn't say "if". I said "when" because sooner than later there will be another chance to buy the following stocks which have great fundamentals, exceptional leadership and are leaders of their respective sectors or areas of expertise.
Take a look at this one-year chart of my first suggestion, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC):
There's an important point where the 50-day moving average ((NYSE:MA)) and the 200-day MA "cross" and the 50-day MA moves higher.
As the chart above demonstrates, invariably INTC will at some point begin to move back toward the 200-day MA, or even dip below it for awhile. That opens the door for a good buying opportunity, which may be in the below $22-a-share area.
Another "gem" among stocks worth keeping an eye on is Mastercard Inc. (MA), which closed at $360.09 on Nov.4,2011. Back on Oct.4,2011, we could have bought the shares for as low as around $293.03.
The one-year basic technical chart on MA shows us some important averages:
MasterCard is a picture-perfect example of a stock where the 50-day MA stays above and keeps rising along with the 200-day MA.
MasterCard is one of the largest payment processors in the world. It tracks spending via credit and debit cards.This makes it a reliable indicator of how much consumers spend on food, clothing, or just about anything else.
On Wednesday Nov.2nd, MasterCard reported one of the strongest quarters this earnings season. If you listened to the company's comments during its conference call,you'd probably stop worrying about another recession.
MasterCard jumped to an all-time high of $364 after reporting its third-quarter results. The stock is up roughly 60% on the year. That's significantly higher than the S&P 500, which is about break-even levels for 2011.
So why not be patient and prudent and see if MA will test its 50-day MA, which is currently around $330 before we even think about buying some shares? After all, at current prices its selling for 22 times current earnings. A little rich for my blood!
How about the correction on November 4th in the shares of Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK)? It was on very heavy volume, three times the normal volume, and the stock is down over 6% in one day.
Yesterday, Chesapeake announced that it was completing two land-leasing deals - on property in the Utica Shale basin - worth as much as $3.4 billion.
Chesapeake says it will bring in an "international major energy company" to jointly develop some of its Utica acreage. The company is not naming the major, but says the deal should be completed next month.
CHK is making plenty of moving and only selling at 10 times forward earnings. Their third-quarter results, released late Thursday,Nov.3rd, actually beat expectations.
A look at their one-year chart with the 50 day MA and the 200 day MA is revealing:
You can clearly see that back in October we saw a "death cross" where the 50 day MA moved below the 200 day MA. This means from a technical basis there's no "major support" for CHK till it falls below the $24-a-share level, which would be a great time to be a "bargain buyer".
It's my opinion the same strategy (buying at or slightly above the 200-day MA) could be used for Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN), Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) and EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), which may retest its Oct.13th low of $77.64. I'd buy it at $77.70 and smile.
Here's a one-year basic technical chart of EOG:
The 200-day MA had been moving lower and lower, but for now has turned up. Look how low the shares of EOG plunged on Oct.4th, 2011 to below $67-a-share. Today, Friday Nov.4th, they've had a massive rebound to an amazing price of $102.
EOG is a great example of how "buying low" and buying patiently can bring some great short-term profits. Between Oct.4th and today the stock is up 52%!
I'd also be watching Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) to see if we can scoop up some shares between $91.30 and $91 (it closed today around $95.50). I have a good-till-canceled order for some shares at $89.05.
I recently wrote an article about CAT, Deer Co. (NYSE:DE) and Joy-Global (JOYG) which is a buy near it's 200 day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) which is a support level of around $82.50. I personally won't pay above $75 for shares right now.
Maybe we can get real lucky and pick up some shares of JOYG near it's Oct.13th, 2011 intra day low of $74.85. That's the support level and buying target for the real patient investor.
Opportunity keeps knocking in this volatile stock market, so get ready, get set, not quite yet! Remember, patience often times pays the best "dividends" and can reap the most satisfying results.
Disclosure: I am long INTC, DVN, APC.
Additional disclosure: I sold my shares of CHK Nov.4th and hope to buy back at $23.45.I have GTC orders to buy EOG at $77.70, CAT at $89.05, MA at $295 and JOYG at $74.85