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Jim Cramer issued 102 stock opinions in the week between 11.07.2011 and 11.11.2011:

Air Date

Cramer's Call

Ticker

Market Cap

P/E

P/B

P/S

Div Yield

EPS Growth Past 5 Years

EPS Growth Next 5 Years

Insider Transactions

11.10.2011

Buy

MMR

2271.16

N/A

1.37

4.27

0.0%

0.0%

5.0%

1.7%

11.10.2011

Buy

CELG

28664.56

27.02

5.13

6.19

0.0%

60.3%

25.1%

8.1%

11.10.2011

Buy

MRK

110816.4

24.64

2

2.32

4.2%

-33.4%

4.4%

5.7%

11.10.2011

Buy

WFM

12172.95

35.6

4.11

1.2

0.6%

6.6%

16.6%

-25.5%

11.10.2011

Buy

KFT

62820.53

19.44

1.71

1.18

3.3%

-3.5%

9.2%

2.9%

11.10.2011

Buy

WES

2553.93

21.29

2.19

4.18

4.6%

43.6%

8.3%

2.0%

11.10.2011

Buy

CSCO

102042.3

16.4

2.19

2.36

1.3%

5.6%

10.2%

-1.8%

11.10.2011

Buy

EOG

27963.09

27.09

2.24

3.06

0.6%

-34.2%

36.5%

10.8%

11.10.2011

Buy

SLB

102726.6

23.77

3.26

2.72

1.3%

13.3%

22.3%

-4.0%

11.10.2011

Buy

NOV

30112.41

16.18

1.76

2.22

0.6%

34.4%

15.0%

2.7%

11.10.2011

Buy

KSS

15228.75

14.27

2.15

0.82

1.8%

8.6%

13.2%

4.0%

11.10.2011

Buy

CMI

19038.15

11.56

3.65

1.1

1.6%

13.9%

17.6%

-8.8%

11.10.2011

Buy

VIA

30750

24.05

3.26

2.24

2.0%

10.8%

16.1%

-4.5%

11.10.2011

Buy

SNY

92194.76

14

1.24

1.94

5.3%

20.0%

1.0%

0.0%

11.10.2011

Buy

DVA

6943.36

19.41

3.69

1.05

0.0%

14.6%

13.0%

-65.8%

11.10.2011

Buy

ESV

12052.2

18.47

1.12

5.36

2.7%

16.4%

15.5%

2.6%

11.10.2011

Buy

EW

8112.73

35.46

5.99

4.94

0.0%

23.5%

27.2%

-1.0%

11.10.2011

Buy

KMP

25059.76

470.31

3.28

3.08

6.2%

-2.3%

7.5%

0.0%

11.10.2011

Buy

T

174342.9

14.93

1.53

1.39

5.9%

17.8%

4.5%

-0.4%

11.10.2011

Buy

APA

38176.22

10.21

1.58

2.38

0.6%

1.5%

10.6%

-0.7%

11.10.2011

Buy

COP

95783.16

9.24

1.46

0.4

3.7%

-4.6%

2.7%

40.1%

11.09.2011

Buy

GM

35155.44

4.88

0.82

0.24

0.0%

0.0%

12.4%

-21.6%

11.09.2011

Buy

DPZ

1883.93

20.49

0

1.16

0.0%

-1.7%

9.8%

-19.5%

11.09.2011

Buy

AAPL

357469.7

13.9

4.67

3.3

0.0%

65.0%

18.6%

-6.0%

11.09.2011

Buy

WIN

6114.42

23.06

7.54

1.51

8.3%

-7.1%

-0.1%

5.2%

11.09.2011

Buy

SLRC

846.5

15.44

1.09

6.29

10.4%

0.0%

6.0%

47.5%

11.09.2011

Buy

ETP

9148.85

31.91

1.77

1.41

8.2%

-13.8%

15.8%

20.1%

11.09.2011

Buy

AEP

19084.6

12.12

1.3

1.26

4.8%

-0.8%

4.3%

0.0%

11.09.2011

Buy

SNY

92194.76

14

1.24

1.94

5.3%

20.0%

1.0%

0.0%

11.09.2011

Buy

FLR

9517.93

17.81

2.89

0.42

0.9%

8.5%

12.9%

-51.2%

11.08.2011

Buy

HUM

14405.99

11.18

1.83

0.4

1.1%

29.3%

8.5%

-3.1%

11.08.2011

Buy

WMT

204041.1

13.39

3.02

0.47

2.5%

9.0%

9.5%

-99.3%

11.08.2011

Buy

OPK

1546.35

N/A

11.43

38.38

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

31.7%

11.08.2011

Buy

VZ

106222.5

15.07

2.72

0.98

5.3%

-16.1%

9.0%

0.0%

11.08.2011

Buy

VOD

152052.1

11.99

1.05

2.07

5.0%

4.1%

3.9%

0.0%

11.08.2011

Buy

CTL

23319.93

22.38

1.06

1.88

7.7%

4.8%

4.6%

26.1%

11.08.2011

Buy

CFN

5560.18

19.25

1.09

1.58

0.0%

-8.8%

13.2%

112.9%

11.08.2011

Buy

GOOG

197038.5

20.73

3.59

5.51

0.0%

39.3%

19.3%

-30.6%

11.08.2011

Buy

ARG

5529.31

21.95

3.51

1.23

1.8%

12.7%

12.7%

14.7%

11.07.2011

Buy

NAT

679.11

N/A

0.72

7.12

7.6%

-24.7%

0.0%

0.0%

11.07.2011

Buy

APA

38176.22

10.21

1.58

2.38

0.6%

1.5%

10.6%

-0.7%

11.07.2011

Buy

MDRX

3906.02

188.91

2.8

2.99

0.0%

11.8%

24.4%

3.6%

11.07.2011

Buy

PIR

1456.35

14.46

4.03

1

0.0%

-26.7%

12.5%

-90.6%

11.07.2011

Buy

HD

59536.88

16.99

3.28

0.87

2.6%

-5.2%

13.4%

-7.7%

11.07.2011

Buy

LOW

29130.85

15.61

1.74

0.6

2.4%

-3.8%

13.3%

-7.4%

11.07.2011

Buy

M

13300.21

12.92

2.23

0.52

1.3%

-8.9%

9.0%

-26.5%

11.07.2011

Buy

COO

3198.39

19.2

1.69

2.49

0.1%

3.5%

13.7%

7.4%

11.07.2011

Buy

MTW

1564.33

N/A

3.3

0.48

0.7%

-37.5%

15.0%

10.5%

11.07.2011

Buy

JNPR

13260.54

26.19

1.91

2.94

0.0%

14.5%

16.2%

1.0%

11.07.2011

Buy

AAPL

357469.7

13.9

4.67

3.3

0.0%

65.0%

18.6%

-6.0%

11.11.2011

Buy

AA

11281.58

11.28

0.76

0.46

1.1%

-29.1%

40.9%

-3.0%

11.11.2011

Buy

ABT

84880.31

18.8

3.22

2.21

3.5%

6.6%

9.3%

-4.4%

11.11.2011

Buy

ACN

41391.04

17.34

10.51

1.51

2.3%

16.4%

10.9%

-0.3%

11.11.2011

Buy

AEE

7972.69

14.6

1

1.04

4.9%

-28.6%

-0.8%

-0.9%

11.11.2011

Buy

BIDU

48052.06

53.19

23.23

24.42

0.0%

132.5%

49.7%

0.0%

11.11.2011

Buy

CAT

62106.71

14.7

4.39

1.11

1.9%

0.5%

24.3%

-5.9%

11.11.2011

Buy

CELG

28664.56

27.02

5.13

6.19

0.0%

60.3%

25.1%

8.1%

11.11.2011

Buy

CLX

8656.6

31.55

N/A

1.64

3.7%

-6.6%

8.9%

29.0%

11.11.2011

Buy

CSX

23613.38

13.88

2.86

2.03

2.1%

20.7%

10.6%

-14.6%

11.11.2011

Buy

DE

31371

12.49

4.17

1.03

2.2%

8.7%

11.8%

-52.4%

11.11.2011

Buy

DIS

68115.2

15.55

1.72

1.69

1.1%

11.4%

13.8%

5.7%

11.11.2011

Buy

F

42330.11

6.63

7.96

0.32

0.0%

14.0%

6.7%

-3.2%

11.11.2011

Buy

GOOG

197038.5

20.73

3.59

5.51

0.0%

39.3%

19.3%

-30.6%

11.11.2011

Buy

HD

59536.88

16.99

3.28

0.87

2.6%

-5.2%

13.4%

-7.7%

11.11.2011

Buy

HNZ

17220.59

17.82

5.48

1.55

3.6%

18.8%

6.8%

-23.5%

11.11.2011

Buy

JCP

7235.81

21.07

1.54

0.41

2.4%

-16.2%

15.0%

0.0%

11.11.2011

Buy

KMP

25059.76

470.31

3.28

3.08

6.2%

-2.3%

7.5%

0.0%

11.11.2011

Buy

PM

124437.3

15.15

58.72

1.65

4.3%

8.1%

11.4%

6.1%

11.11.2011

Buy

PSA

21445.14

41.34

2.55

12.43

3.0%

3.7%

9.9%

0.1%

11.11.2011

Buy

ROST

10377.41

17.4

7.28

1.27

1.0%

27.7%

11.3%

7.6%

11.11.2011

Buy

TROW

13725.93

18.67

4.2

5.03

2.3%

9.9%

12.0%

0.7%

11.11.2011

Buy

TYC

21416.74

15.48

1.51

1.25

2.2%

15.4%

12.7%

9.4%

11.11.2011

Buy

UNP

49699.27

16.33

2.68

2.64

1.9%

23.5%

12.1%

1.1%

11.11.2011

Buy

V

77740.01

22.5

2.92

8.46

0.9%

44.6%

19.3%

-23.4%

11.11.2011

Buy

VZ

106222.5

15.07

2.72

0.98

5.3%

-16.1%

9.0%

0.0%

11.11.2011

Buy

WMT

204041.1

13.39

3.02

0.47

2.5%

9.0%

9.5%

-99.3%

11.10.2011

Sell

ATVI

14525.24

23.11

1.15

3.05

1.3%

13.7%

14.6%

-8.1%

11.10.2011

Sell

GTAT

1045.47

5.33

3.99

1.05

0.0%

84.7%

10.0%

54.1%

11.10.2011

Sell

IOC

2419.58

N/A

3.3

2.55

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

11.10.2011

Sell

KMI

19491.99

54.06

5.64

2.41

4.4%

0.0%

21.7%

2.6%

11.10.2011

Sell

S

8717.84

N/A

0.67

0.26

0.0%

-57.8%

2.6%

25.0%

11.10.2011

Sell

APKT

2487.47

52.2

5.86

8.44

0.0%

26.8%

26.8%

-15.1%

11.10.2011

Sell

BHI

25402.55

14.48

1.63

1.35

1.0%

-4.3%

26.1%

-1.9%

11.10.2011

Sell

YNDX

8249.42

50.08

9.49

14.2

0.0%

0.0%

39.2%

0.0%

11.10.2011

Sell

MMYT

1024.8

252.82

9.12

7.16

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

11.10.2011

Sell

DLR

6458.88

51.78

2.54

6.27

4.2%

21.9%

11.8%

-17.2%

11.10.2011

Sell

RIMM

9691.72

3.38

0.97

0.48

0.0%

58.3%

12.9%

0.0%

11.10.2011

Sell

WWE

760.47

18.58

2.43

1.54

4.7%

-1.3%

8.6%

-3.2%

11.10.2011

Sell

NOK

25785.61

28.13

1.45

0.45

8.5%

-9.6%

4.3%

0.0%

11.10.2011

Sell

GMCR

6691.56

42.85

3.68

2.89

0.0%

46.1%

41.2%

-4.0%

11.10.2011

Sell

WYNN

15676.23

29.31

6.2

3.04

1.6%

3.4%

37.9%

-2.8%

11.10.2011

Sell

GOOG

197038.5

20.73

3.59

5.51

0.0%

39.3%

19.3%

-30.6%

11.10.2011

Sell

AAPL

357469.7

13.9

4.67

3.3

0.0%

65.0%

18.6%

-6.0%

11.10.2011

Sell

HAL

35509.36

13.04

2.87

1.55

0.9%

-0.6%

27.7%

5.5%

11.09.2011

Sell

FWLT

2405.04

16.2

2.73

0.53

0.0%

-7.1%

14.7%

-62.4%

11.08.2011

Sell

CEL

2125.46

6.5

26.38

1.19

16.2%

20.8%

9.1%

0.0%

11.08.2011

Sell

CNC

1786.47

17.3

2.05

0.36

0.0%

16.6%

13.0%

-1.8%

11.07.2011

Sell

APU

2452.73

26.84

5.64

1

6.9%

20.6%

9.4%

0.0%

11.07.2011

Sell

PANL

2396

N/A

7.55

61.91

0.0%

0.0%

24.5%

12.4%

11.11.2011

Sell

BAH

2090.25

13.09

2.1

0.36

0.0%

-21.4%

19.5%

20.6%

11.11.2011

Sell

CRM

17571.41

649.35

12.42

9.07

0.0%

14.5%

27.0%

-8.1%

11.11.2011

Sell

TNH

3241.57

12.45

12.15

4.38

7.9%

22.1%

0.0%

105.8%

Contrarians can utilize Cramer’s popularity by viewing his picks as consensus views, and carefully selecting recommendations to counter. In 2008, my MBA classmates and I investigated this investment strategy and found the following:

  • Buying Cramer’s picks after he recommended them underperformed the broader stock market. There seems to be a “bump” relative to the market for his picks that has happened faster than you could conceivably trade.
  • Cramer’s mid-cap and large-cap picks did not outperform the market, and “shorting the bump” would be an interesting strategy for high-frequency traders.
  • Cramer’s small and micro cap picks do a little better than small-cap indexes after he discusses them.
  • Cramer might be trying to do the impossible by making daily stock picks. He provides entertainment, relays business news, and displays an impressive, encyclopedic knowledge of publicly traded companies. However, this did not translate into alpha for his mid- and large-cap picks.

Exploiting any persistence of these effects is fairly simple. Contrarians should review large- and mid-cap stocks recommended by Cramer and consider whether there is merit to taking the opposite positions. From this week’s large- and mid-cap picks, RIMM, CEL, KMP, MDRX, are challenged.

What could an investor expect from following Cramer’s calls? We can model total returns over a three-year holding period for each of these stocks. (I use a 3-year holding period since above-average growth estimates are not reliable further out.) Giving Cramer the benefit of the doubt for buy recommendations, the stock is assumed to be sold at a generous growth stock price-to-earnings multiple of 17 and the maximum of historical and analyst estimate values for earnings growth are assumed. On the contrary, we will use more conservative values to give Cramer the benefit of the doubt for his sell recommendations. For his sell calls, a value stock price-to-earnings multiple of 10 and the minimum of historical and analyst estimates values for earnings growth are assumed. These assumptions are used to project an annualized total return over the next three years and a terminal price-to-earnings ratios; that is, price paid today divided by earnings at the end of the holding period for each stock:

3 Years Growth

Ticker

Cramer

g (past)

g (future)

Terminal P/E

Annualized Return

RIMM

Sell

58.3%

12.9%

2.35

62%

CEL

Sell

20.8%

9.1%

5.01

26%

KMP

Buy

-2.3%

7.5%

379.00

-64%

MDRX

Buy

11.8%

24.4%

98.18

-44%

Even with assumptions that would favor Cramer’s sell recommendations for RIMM, and CEL, they cannot be supported given current valuations. Even after holding them through three years of earnings growth that drops below historical trends and then selling at a 10 price-to-earnings multiple, investors would reap healthy annualized returns. Daring contrarians ought to consider researching RIMM, and CEL as a buy pick, not selling them.

Conversely, Cramer’s buy recommendations for MDRX and KMP are not supported even by a rosy scenario. Buyers of these stocks who enjoy the greater of historical growth and analyst growth estimates and are able to sell at a growth stock P/E ratio would still suffer negative total returns. Intrepid contrarians should research MDRX and KMP as sell picks, rather than trusting Cramer’s buy recommendation on each stock.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Disclaimer: This article was written to provide investor information and education, and should not be construed as a guarantee or investment advice. I have no idea what your individual risk, time-horizon, and tax circumstances are: please seek the personal advice of a financial planner. This article uses third-party data and may contain approximations and errors. Please check estimates and data for yourself before investing.

Source: Countering Jim Cramer's Picks From Last Week